Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate • Hacker News Board

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#71

Post by hamoid » Sun, May 31, 2015, 9:44 AM UTC

ekianjo wrote: post #54

arjn wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You haven't travelled to India, China or Bangladesh have you ? The world is already heavily overpopulated. If we estimate the amount of people the world can support and that's higher than the current number, it does not mean we should have that higher number. If we keep going higher, we will not be able to stop the destruction of flora and fauna that is currently underway. The world may be able to "support" more peop…

> You haven't travelled to India, China or Bangladesh have you ? Have you travelled to the US, Europe, Russia or Africa? In most parts of these continents there's nothing but nature for kilometres and kilometres with very low population density. Only large cities concentrate a lot of people, and there's still space for more if we really wanted to.

From "Deforestation and net forest area change, 2010"

* Around 13 million hectares of forest were converted to other uses or lost through natural causes each year in the last decade compared to 16 million hectares per year in the 1990s. * The net change in forest area in the period 2000–2010 is estimated at –5.2 million hectares per year (an area about the size of Costa Rica), down from –8.3 million hectares per year in the period 1990–2000.

http://www.fao.org/forestry/30515/en/

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#72

Post by tiatia » Sun, May 31, 2015, 9:51 AM UTC

adevine wrote: post #40

I'm not so sure I understand the point of view that labor shortages will be such a bad thing for the economy. If you are a worker, "high labor costs" is a very GOOD thing. For decades we've seen the value of labor fall behind the value of capital, and a more constrained labor supply might help change this.

Labor costs and salaries are declining at a staggering pace. Workers get squeezed between declining wages, asset price inflation (Germany has one of the lowest house ownership rates) and taxation. The the same time, hordes of young, male, aggressive and uneducated immigrants who believe that they have a superior religion, flood Germany. Run as long as you can.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#73

Post by jotm » Sun, May 31, 2015, 10:03 AM UTC

Can I just say that it is not a problem for Germany because they figured out they need to let immigrants in, unlike Japan. Germany has a very high number of immigrants, including (actually, mostly!) young adults who are eager to work.

By all means, the country is more than safe in this regard, in stark contrast to Japan, which is trying to turn to robots for future workers (which is fine for the rest of the world, imo).

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#74

Post by jotm » Sun, May 31, 2015, 10:03 AM UTC

blux wrote: post #62

A diminishing population only has negative consequences for an economy in the short term, right? In the end, less people means less money needs to be made to sustain a certain standard of living.

It's not diminishing for Germany thanks to immigration...

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#75

Post by mafribe » Sun, May 31, 2015, 10:04 AM UTC

ekianjo wrote: post #64

justincormack wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Japan has a lot of overseas assets, so to some extent foreign workers will pay for Japanese retirees. It may not be enough though.

The debt of Japan is so huge (to put it in relative terms, Greece's debt is nothing compared to it) that they would need half of the developed world to cater to it.

Japanese debt is mostly to its own population, while that of Greece is foreign owned. That's a huge difference.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#76

Post by mafribe » Sun, May 31, 2015, 10:05 AM UTC

ajmurmann wrote: post #22

k__ wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But aren't the poorest those who get most of the children?

Yes, typically they are, even in Germany. That being said, very rich people who don't have to compromise and have others raise their children also tend to have more than average children I believe.

There are very few of the latter, so it's at best a drop in the statistical ocean.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#77

Post by alkonaut » Sun, May 31, 2015, 10:07 AM UTC

lern_too_spel wrote: post #4

Birth rate is rarely the correct metric because it is affected by longevity. The metric most people are interested in is fertility rate, where Germany still has a long way to go to pass Singapore. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/...

This. Birth rate has a lot of uncontrollable factors like demographics. A slump in people in ages 20-40 will inevitably leas to falling birth rate at the same fertility. And that will repeat in 20-40 years.

The factor to focus on is the fertility and the fraction of working adults. Germany has a very traditional view of the labour market and women often have to stop working for years when having children. This means that a large group of women don't work, or (equally bad for the economy), a large group of women chose not to have kids.

The only proven solution is subsidized childcare, longer parental leave, individual taxation.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#78

Post by mafribe » Sun, May 31, 2015, 10:13 AM UTC

josteink wrote: post #51

ajmurmann wrote: post #20

As a German who lives in the US since 8 years I am not surprised by this at all. By the time you finish university in Germany you are about 25 years old. They introduced the Bachelor/Master system, but at least when I studied, getting a Bachelor was more of a way to drop out gracefully. In addition there was a culture that expected you to stay at home until your child is at least 1 year old. Therefore there was very…

For the female part of a couple stability is important, and owning your own house/apartment plays a big role there. I've heard that getting into the house ownership market in Germany is extremely hard, with high requirements set on your own savings to be granted a loan, meaning most people don't until they are well into their 30s and maybe even their 40s. To me that certainly also sound like a contributing factor. An…

I don't think home ownership is an issue. Lifelong renting is the norm, costs of renting homes are low, quality of rental property is high and relevant legislation is tenant-friendly.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#79

Post by alkonaut » Sun, May 31, 2015, 10:14 AM UTC

jotm wrote: post #73

Can I just say that it is not a problem for Germany because they figured out they need to let immigrants in, unlike Japan. Germany has a very high number of immigrants, including (actually, mostly!) young adults who are eager to work. By all means, the country is more than safe in this regard, in stark contrast to Japan, which is trying to turn to robots for future workers (which is fine for the rest of the world, im…

Yes, Japan has managed to brew the deadly mix of aging population, extremely traditional values leading to very low fertility, and an extremely low acceptance of immigration. it feels almost dystopian to think about the demographics in a few decades: elderly and robots will far outnumber the rest.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#80

Post by dheera » Sun, May 31, 2015, 10:16 AM UTC

lern_too_spel wrote: post #4

Birth rate is rarely the correct metric because it is affected by longevity. The metric most people are interested in is fertility rate, where Germany still has a long way to go to pass Singapore. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/...

Not to mention that in these highly-developed countries with solid education systems and modern career opportunities, the value-creating power of an individual is several times higher than that of an average individual in a developing country.

The fertility rate among founders in Silicon Valley is probably even lower, but that group of people is creating an immense amount of value for society in return for not creating as many kids.