Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate • Hacker News Board

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#51

Post by josteink » Sun, May 31, 2015, 8:25 AM UTC

ajmurmann wrote: post #20

As a German who lives in the US since 8 years I am not surprised by this at all. By the time you finish university in Germany you are about 25 years old. They introduced the Bachelor/Master system, but at least when I studied, getting a Bachelor was more of a way to drop out gracefully. In addition there was a culture that expected you to stay at home until your child is at least 1 year old. Therefore there was very…

For the female part of a couple stability is important, and owning your own house/apartment plays a big role there.

I've heard that getting into the house ownership market in Germany is extremely hard, with high requirements set on your own savings to be granted a loan, meaning most people don't until they are well into their 30s and maybe even their 40s.

To me that certainly also sound like a contributing factor. Any comments or perspective on that?

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#52

Post by ekianjo » Sun, May 31, 2015, 8:28 AM UTC

Xixi wrote: post #48

resonation wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you're drawing distinguishment between birth rate and fertility rate?

Birth rate and fertility rate are not the same, so of course I distinguish. Though to be fair I think the correct term is total fertility rate, as sometimes fertility rate is defined as birth rate. Birth rate (technically, births/population rate) is the total number of live births per 1,000 of a population in a year. It is abysmal in Japan because the population is very old, so not many people are in age of making ch…

> and most importantly Japanese society is (slowly) becoming more tolerant to mothers going back to work.

Yup, but that won't prevent Japan from going right into the demography wall within a decade or two (with serious consequences on its economy, since current workers have to pay for retired ones, in a growing deficit and a climate of increasing taxes).

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#53

Post by ekianjo » Sun, May 31, 2015, 8:33 AM UTC

bitwize wrote: post #30

joshuapants wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world is not overpopulated by a long shot. There may be a lot of overconsumption in certain regions, but that's a different issue.

Currently it takes 1.2 earths' worth of resources to support the earth's population, which means the earth cannot support all of us without starting to deplete resources. So yes, the planet IS overpopulated.

> Currently it takes 1.2 earths' worth of resources to support

LOL, this kind of "x amount of Earths" to support ourselves always make me laugh, because it assumes energy cannot be produced and that productivity gains do not exist. 30 years ago we were supposed to reach the "Peak petrol" point very soon, yet we found new ways to extract fossil fuels and push back that peak time to a much later time, leaving us time to develop alternative energies as well.

And we are still just literally scratching the Earth's surface. The Earth is a ball and most of its resources are far below the ground.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#54

Post by ekianjo » Sun, May 31, 2015, 8:36 AM UTC

arjn wrote: post #19

joshuapants wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world is not overpopulated by a long shot. There may be a lot of overconsumption in certain regions, but that's a different issue.

You haven't travelled to India, China or Bangladesh have you ? The world is already heavily overpopulated. If we estimate the amount of people the world can support and that's higher than the current number, it does not mean we should have that higher number. If we keep going higher, we will not be able to stop the destruction of flora and fauna that is currently underway. The world may be able to "support" more peop…

> You haven't travelled to India, China or Bangladesh have you ?

Have you travelled to the US, Europe, Russia or Africa? In most parts of these continents there's nothing but nature for kilometres and kilometres with very low population density. Only large cities concentrate a lot of people, and there's still space for more if we really wanted to.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#55

Post by josteink » Sun, May 31, 2015, 8:37 AM UTC

mike_ivanov wrote: post #39

bitwize wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Currently it takes 1.2 earths' worth of resources to support the earth's population, which means the earth cannot support all of us without starting to deplete resources. So yes, the planet IS overpopulated.

And, of course, you can provide links to credible studies supporting such extraordinary claims, right?

Petty much every documentary I have seen the last 5 years claims humans are increasingly ruining the planet at a non-sustainable rate. I expected this to be common knowledge by now.

If you prefer reading about it, Collapse by Jared Diamond[1] is an exceptional book on the subject, with facts and references for every claim and anecdote.

[1] http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0143117009/ref=as_li_tl?ie=...

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#56

Post by justincormack » Sun, May 31, 2015, 8:48 AM UTC

josteink wrote: post #51

ajmurmann wrote: post #20

As a German who lives in the US since 8 years I am not surprised by this at all. By the time you finish university in Germany you are about 25 years old. They introduced the Bachelor/Master system, but at least when I studied, getting a Bachelor was more of a way to drop out gracefully. In addition there was a culture that expected you to stay at home until your child is at least 1 year old. Therefore there was very…

For the female part of a couple stability is important, and owning your own house/apartment plays a big role there. I've heard that getting into the house ownership market in Germany is extremely hard, with high requirements set on your own savings to be granted a loan, meaning most people don't until they are well into their 30s and maybe even their 40s. To me that certainly also sound like a contributing factor. An…

Most people rent, home ownership is 43%, so no I dont think people consider they need to own a home before having children. There is a stable long term rental market.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#57

Post by thoa » Sun, May 31, 2015, 8:49 AM UTC

josteink wrote: post #51

ajmurmann wrote: post #20

As a German who lives in the US since 8 years I am not surprised by this at all. By the time you finish university in Germany you are about 25 years old. They introduced the Bachelor/Master system, but at least when I studied, getting a Bachelor was more of a way to drop out gracefully. In addition there was a culture that expected you to stay at home until your child is at least 1 year old. Therefore there was very…

For the female part of a couple stability is important, and owning your own house/apartment plays a big role there. I've heard that getting into the house ownership market in Germany is extremely hard, with high requirements set on your own savings to be granted a loan, meaning most people don't until they are well into their 30s and maybe even their 40s. To me that certainly also sound like a contributing factor. An…

I don't think owning a house/apartment in Germany is important for most couple (to decide to have a baby).

It is normal here (for my parents/grandparents/friends) to live in a rented flat and perhaps move sometime on to a own house/apartment.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#58

Post by justincormack » Sun, May 31, 2015, 8:51 AM UTC

ekianjo wrote: post #52

Xixi wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Birth rate and fertility rate are not the same, so of course I distinguish. Though to be fair I think the correct term is total fertility rate, as sometimes fertility rate is defined as birth rate. Birth rate (technically, births/population rate) is the total number of live births per 1,000 of a population in a year. It is abysmal in Japan because the population is very old, so not many people are in age of making ch…

> and most importantly Japanese society is (slowly) becoming more tolerant to mothers going back to work. Yup, but that won't prevent Japan from going right into the demography wall within a decade or two (with serious consequences on its economy, since current workers have to pay for retired ones, in a growing deficit and a climate of increasing taxes).

Japan has a lot of overseas assets, so to some extent foreign workers will pay for Japanese retirees. It may not be enough though.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#59

Post by philwelch » Sun, May 31, 2015, 8:53 AM UTC

kiba wrote: post #2

When population growth rate is negative, it makes immortality all the easier to contemplate.

You are not ready for immortality.

Re: Germany passes Japan to have world's lowest birth rate

#60

Post by sitkack » Sun, May 31, 2015, 8:54 AM UTC

We all need birth rate below the replacement rate as well as an increase in the quality of the citizen (good education, safe environment, stimulating activities).