The View from the Front Seat of the Google Self-Driving Car • Hacker News Board

Re: The View from the Front Seat of the Google Self-Driving Car

#171

Post by mjmahone17 » Mon, May 11, 2015, 9:09 PM UTC

daeken wrote: post #133

bkeroack wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt it will be outlawed. You can still ride horses on public streets in most places (probably not freeways I imagine), but most people of course don't. In the same way you probably will be able to drive cars manually indefinitely, even while most will choose to use autonomous vehicles.

It won't be outlawed; it'll just be priced out of existence. When autos are good enough, insurance costs for manual driving will skyrocket . Only the very richest will be able to afford driving on roads.

It's possible they don't really skyrocket. However, right now insurance rates are not at all cheap. It's not at all uncommon to have to pay $100+/month on insurance, per driver. For most families, there aren't many things they're willing to spend $1,000+/year on. When it's no longer a necessity, I would suspect that even if prices don't go up, because the marginal cost of driving yourself will have increased (cost to drive - cost of next best alternative, i.e. autonomous driving), most people will choose not to self-insure. Just like in some cities, the marginal cost of car ownership is so large (even if it's only a few thousand dollars more than in a suburb) that it makes more sense to rely on public transit.

Re: The View from the Front Seat of the Google Self-Driving Car

#172

Post by agumonkey » Mon, May 11, 2015, 9:13 PM UTC

alexvoda wrote: post #161

agumonkey wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. The issue when collecting data is that it's a rabbithole, you need to have a lot of data to avoid shallow judgement, and careful jurors too. Going at 71 (74,75) instead of 70 might turn against you, but if you have enough evidence that the other vehicle would have it you even at 70mph then the system will work.

This can be solved. Have all collected data be encrypted AND the owner of the car be the ONLY one with the decryption key.

This isn't the point, though. Even if people are afraid data may turn against them, they will never take the risk to use it.

Re: The View from the Front Seat of the Google Self-Driving Car

#173

Post by danans » Mon, May 11, 2015, 9:13 PM UTC

js2 wrote: post #92

About 33,000 people die on America’s roads every year. There will eventually be a fatality caused by a self-driving car. I wonder how many of these we will be willing to accept. Say self-driving cars reduce fatalities by 10x. That is, by switching 100% to self-driving cars there are 3300 deaths a year, but they are all caused by self-driving cars. Would America accept that? I personally doubt we would. I think the nu…

(Disclaimer: I work at Google but not on self driving cars. My opinion, not my employer's, follows)

What about the reduced individual and societal costs (in insurance, medical, lost productivity, psychological trauma) that come with a 10x reduction in driving fatalities?

People might see the value of a 10x (or even smaller) reduction if it is expressed in those terms.

Re: The View from the Front Seat of the Google Self-Driving Car

#174

Post by shkkmo » Mon, May 11, 2015, 9:16 PM UTC

Anm wrote: post #41

Squarel wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This will only be the case when all cars are self-driving. Many of these articles do not give a comparison...so,11 per 1.7m miles sounds awesome, but how do you know what the current rate is? The data I found had a passenger vehicle fatal crash per 100m miles as between 1.0 and 1.33, and a property damage only crash rate per 100m miles of 145, which relate to 0.01 fatalities per 1m miles, and 1.45 property only crash…

The article is pretty clear that most of the light-damage, no-injury accidents don't get reported, and that all 11 accidents fell in that category. Half the point of the article is that this data is not well known. Granted, taking those 1.45 and 55% figures, we might compare the 11 accidents to approximately 3.2 accident (reported and unreported) per million miles in passenger vehicles. Emphasis on "approximately".

That 11 accidents is per 1.7 mil miles so the number you would want to compare is 6.5 not 11.

That said, I don't think you can compare those numbers because it really isn't clear what that "55%" number is supposed to mean.

Doing my own back of the envelope:

~3 trillion miles driven in 2010

drivers involed in PDO (property damage only) crashes: 18.5 million People injured in crashes in 2010: 4 million (from http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/pubs/812013.pdf page 143) These numbers include estimates for unreported accidents

Expected crashes for self driving cars based on the above number 6.2 crashes per million miles 1.3 injuries per million miles

Actual number of crashes per million miles (11/1.7) 6.5 crashes per million miles 0 injuries per million miles

Of course, we have no idea if this comparison is at all valid. Given that the incidence of accidents is highly dependent on the ratio of highway miles to street miles, I doubt the comparison is at all accurate. I suspect that since the greatest challenge to self driving cars in on streets, self driving cars have traveled a higher ratio of street to highway miles than normal.

Re: The View from the Front Seat of the Google Self-Driving Car

#175

Post by grecy » Mon, May 11, 2015, 9:19 PM UTC

Zirro wrote: post #68

buss wrote: post #17

Every time I hear about the amazingly low accident rates in current generation self-driving cars I'm reminded of this joke (unfortunately I can't remember the source): Grandpa, what did you do before self-driving cars? Well, we just drove them ourselves. We just needed a little practice and to take a test. Wow, and nobody got killed!? Oh, no, millions of people died.

I can already imagine intense debates about whether to outlaw human-driven cars in a (perhaps not so) distant future.

I see a future where governments will make a laws about "manual control" like they make laws about airbags, minimum mileage and TPMS now.

In 2025 automakers simply won't be allowed to make a "manual control" car, and by 2050 there will be basically none left on the roads.

Re: The View from the Front Seat of the Google Self-Driving Car

#176

Post by cheshire137 » Mon, May 11, 2015, 9:20 PM UTC

Arrrgh those diagrams are giving me road rage.

Re: The View from the Front Seat of the Google Self-Driving Car

#177

Post by Steuard » Mon, May 11, 2015, 9:20 PM UTC

rhino369 wrote: post #93

js2 wrote: post #65

This is why we’ve programmed our cars to pause briefly after a light turns green before proceeding into the intersection I programmed my brain to do this after learning to drive in Miami. I always look both ways before proceeding, just as I would before crossing as a pedestrian. When approaching an intersection, especially at night, I also try to look for what's coming from the side. Intersections can be scary places…

Some areas just give a "brief" period where both lights are red. I'm surprised not everywhere does, or that is isn't increased.

It doesn't work, or so I've heard. Drivers in those cities learn to expect the safety margin of the delay, and statistically they become more willing to run a red light right after it changes.

Re: The View from the Front Seat of the Google Self-Driving Car

#178

Post by branchan » Mon, May 11, 2015, 9:20 PM UTC

splat wrote: post #168

branchan wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably very unlikely unless you solve poverty.

I imagine buses would be much cheaper and more prevalent when you don't have to pay for a driver.

I don't think having to pay for a human bus driver is the primary obstacle preventing us from having cheap and efficient public transportation.

Re: The View from the Front Seat of the Google Self-Driving Car

#179

Post by branchan » Mon, May 11, 2015, 9:21 PM UTC

thrownaway2424 wrote: post #150

branchan wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably very unlikely unless you solve poverty.

It's a myth that poor people drive. They depend on biking, walking, bumming rides from their friends and relatives, and public transportation.

Public transportation is not cheap and/or available in many places in the world. Look at all the cheap beater cars (even in the US), those aren't going driverless anytime soon.

Re: The View from the Front Seat of the Google Self-Driving Car

#180

Post by grecy » Mon, May 11, 2015, 9:22 PM UTC

jedberg wrote: post #85

I'll admit that every time I see one of the self driving cars, I'm tempted to do something crazy nearby to see what it does, like cut it off or swerve towards it. So far I've been a responsible adult and not done that But it's so tempting. Until I think of all the lives I will put in danger. Maybe they can invite me to a test track so I can be an a-hole to the self driving car in a safe and controlled environment. :)

You just described my ultimate "marketing" video for a self-driving car. Google should take one to a test track and get other drivers to mess with it and show us the video of what it does :)