Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

bloomberg.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

81–90 of 136 posts

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#81

Post by emodendroket »

beat wrote: post #80
emodendroket wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no reason besides lack of political will that that goal couldn't be achieved through policy.

International policy, when there's a clear financial benefit to countries that ignore the international policy. Good luck with that political will.

It's very rare that any country's government consists entirely of people acting in concert, so it seems strange to make a sweeping statement like that. Besides that, there are also real costs to environmental devastation.

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#82

Post by crdoconnor »

monk_e_boy wrote: post #48
acjohnson55 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But this can be (and is) manipulated by government policy and social dynamics. The externalities of the fossil fuel energy binge are becoming increasingly impossible to ignore, which is depressing demand.

Do you think Africa, China, India all think like that? Most of whom are living on or below the poverty line? They'll be driving old put-puts and crappy desel trucks, tractors and cars for tens of years to come. How long before second/third hand electric cars are being exported in tens or hundreds of thousands to these countries? 50 years? No one I know drives a NEW car, and I live in the UK. We all wait for 2nd/3rd h…

Yes. Dirt cheap (new) solar panels have been sprouting all over Africa, India and China in the last couple of years. It's quite a sight to behold, sometimes.

These panels became such a 'threat' that Obama slapped tariffs on them.

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#83

Post by beat »

emodendroket wrote: post #81
beat wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

International policy, when there's a clear financial benefit to countries that ignore the international policy. Good luck with that political will.

It's very rare that any country's government consists entirely of people acting in concert, so it seems strange to make a sweeping statement like that. Besides that, there are also real costs to environmental devastation.

Let's say government A implements a carbon tax that increases fossil fuel costs by 25%. Government B chooses not to do so. So energy, the driver of the economy, is 25% cheaper for government B, giving them a competitive advantage.

Now government A will be under massive internal pressure to abolish the carbon tax, because they're losing market share to the cheap energy of government B.

That's why it won't work. Externalized costs are a problem, but they're not a problem we're going to do anything about in a serious way.

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#84

Post by roel_v »

mason240 wrote: post #71
btilly wrote: post #60

Here is my brother's pet theory on why the price of oil fell. Saudi Arabia wanted the USA to intervene against ISIS. The USA wanted the price of oil the fall to hamper Russia and Venezuela. Russia because they are getting aggressive and doing things in the Ukraine and Syria that we don't like. Venezuela because they are the center of anti-Americanism in South and Central America. Which is exactly what happened. We bo…

I'm not seeing a connection to ISIS and the price of oil.

ISIS (at least last year, don't know right now) funded their operations in large part with stolen oil. When the price of oil halved, that hurt their operations significantly.

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#85

Post by pakled_engineer »

mark_l_watson wrote: post #58
iwwr wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bigger headache is keeping those educated people in SA, a country unlikely to reform socially very much to accomodate them, let alone the competition for skilled people in general. The social exclusion of women alone is a great drag on productivity.

You might be underestimating the happiness factor of the SA middle class. A few years ago two SA college professors hired me to remotely tutor their daughter in computer science. She seemed very content with the status quo and her prospects for a happy life. I have to admit to some surprise about her attitudes, and I realize this is only one data point.

The Saudi regime now offers fully paid foreign school and a comfortable living allowance, thousands of them are in my city going to university. They are all total hedonists here but told me they want to go back home after and enjoy their privileged status there. None of them want to stay overseas that I've met.

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#86

Post by crdoconnor »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #31
ams6110 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world will move away from oil when the alternatives are more economical. Any other conclusion is magical thinking.

All other alternatives are more economical when oil's externalities are priced in. Oil has been cheating, so can we fix that?

It can be fixed by highlighting politicians' use of the oil industry's money to fund their campaigns and calling them rude names when they do it (and equally, by saying nice things about politicians who don't...).

If it becomes politically unpalatable they will stop taking oil industry money. If the oil industry loses its seat at the policy table they will lose power, followed by money, followed by influence. It's a vicious (or virtuous) circle, depending upon how you look at it.

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#87

Post by PopsiclePete »

retube wrote: post #64
btilly wrote: post #60

Here is my brother's pet theory on why the price of oil fell. Saudi Arabia wanted the USA to intervene against ISIS. The USA wanted the price of oil the fall to hamper Russia and Venezuela. Russia because they are getting aggressive and doing things in the Ukraine and Syria that we don't like. Venezuela because they are the center of anti-Americanism in South and Central America. Which is exactly what happened. We bo…

No. The price has fallen as demand has waned, or at least did not match expectations as global GDP expectations fell. Normally Saudi would reduce supply to keep the price up. But they've taken the opportunity to attack their biggest threat: US Shale oil. By keeping production up, the price has dropped and that is pushing shale oil extractors out of business: these guys need ~$60/barrel to be profitable. It's having a…

It's great to have such "allies", isn't it??

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#88

Post by beat »

nailer wrote: post #65
btilly wrote: post #60

Here is my brother's pet theory on why the price of oil fell. Saudi Arabia wanted the USA to intervene against ISIS. The USA wanted the price of oil the fall to hamper Russia and Venezuela. Russia because they are getting aggressive and doing things in the Ukraine and Syria that we don't like. Venezuela because they are the center of anti-Americanism in South and Central America. Which is exactly what happened. We bo…

Why would Saudi Arabia be against ISIS, except as a rival? Wahhabism originates in Saudi Arabia. http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/iraq-crisis-how-...

ISIS is fundamentally different from Al Qaeda and the sort of Wahhibist terrorism that the Saudis have historically been involved in. It is a direct threat to the Saudi government, and every other Arab government.

I'll point out that the Saudis have actively bombed ISIS. They're militarily involved in this war. It's a huge, huge deal for them.

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#89

Post by a8da6b0c91d »

PopsiclePete wrote: post #79
a8da6b0c91d wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're almost certainly talking about a period inside the next ten years. You think solar is good to go on a massive scale so soon? I don't. The shale and tar sands stuff is a bit of a joke. We're talking total proven reserves equivalent to something like six years of US consumption. I'm sure it has made some people rich and will make others rich, but it means approximately nothing in the grand scheme of things. Very…

Know what peak oil and nuclear fusion have in common? They're always 10 years away! I've been hearing this "doom and gloom" since the mid-90's. We're always 10 years away from a complete collapse of our oil-based economy and a Mad Max style dystopian society. We were 10 years away in 1994, we were 10 years away in 2004, and then in 2014. I will bet you $10 right now that you'll declare in 2024 that Peak Oil is going…

Peak Oil won't trigger a Mad Max dystopia. It will trigger pretty much what we've been seeing lately: ongoing financial crises and instability, deflationary pressures, growing unemployment, low/zero growth, etc. Please review the link above.

You just have to look at oil production costs to know something has changed and continues to change. It's just not the 90s anymore. Many, many drillers need $80 oil to be solvent. The global economy can't afford oil that expensive. Every time it climbs up towards $100 we get a big economic slowdown and oil price crash to much lower levels.

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#90

Post by crdoconnor »

beat wrote: post #83
emodendroket wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's very rare that any country's government consists entirely of people acting in concert, so it seems strange to make a sweeping statement like that. Besides that, there are also real costs to environmental devastation.

Let's say government A implements a carbon tax that increases fossil fuel costs by 25%. Government B chooses not to do so. So energy, the driver of the economy, is 25% cheaper for government B, giving them a competitive advantage. Now government A will be under massive internal pressure to abolish the carbon tax, because they're losing market share to the cheap energy of government B. That's why it won't work. Extern…

Government A will more likely see their market operate in a rational way rather than irrational way.

The rational way for its market to respond will be to shift to non-carbon forms of energy generation (which are already pretty much cost competitive without subsidies anyhow).

The irrational way would simply be to stop producing and exporting goods because coal is more expensive.

Post reply on HN