71–80 of 136 posts
Here is my brother's pet theory on why the price of oil fell. Saudi Arabia wanted the USA to intervene against ISIS. The USA wanted the price of oil the fall to hamper Russia and Venezuela. Russia because they are getting aggressive and doing things in the Ukraine and Syria that we don't like. Venezuela because they are the center of anti-Americanism in South and Central America. Which is exactly what happened. We bo…
"Demand destruction" is nonsense. There will always be demand for hydrocarbons. Oil and its distillates remain the only viable means of fueling most motor vehicles, Tesla's hype machine notwithstanding. Even if you could somehow find the trillions of dollars needed to electrify every railway in the world and the tens of trillions more to build enough lithium batteries to replace every auto on the world's roads with a…
Should be interesting reading in a few decades.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> US is self sufficient so they don't fear supply crunch The USA is a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products. At a level of 5 million barrels per day. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mt...
Majority of US imports come from Canada. American reliance on Middle Eastern oil is small. America is down to 27% imports: http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=32&t=6 America imports roughly three times as much from Canada as it does Saudi Arabia: http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=727&t=6 America currently has 690 million barrels in strategic reserve (It's silly to assume that Canadian imports would ever b…
That creates some flexibility, but it isn't that long a period of time.
... and why do we have to follow? The sooner the world moves away from oil the better.
To what? Lithium Ion battery production? That's just as bad as oil, and in some cases worse. This type of manufacturing process requires tremendous inputs of energy, particularly the forging of materials like steel, aluminum, glass and plastic. Interestingly, lightweight vehicles can sometimes be more energy-intensive to build than heavier cars because lighter metals like aluminum are harder to forge than stainless s…
This idea that battery production is more environmentally harmful than burning gasoline is largely a myth pushed by people who are politically opposed to alternative fuels. See also the infamous (and infamously wrong) article from a few years back claiming that a Hummer is less environmentally harmful over its lifetime than a Prius.
Seems that nobody is getting peak oil right. The rise of the North Dakota shale is the confirmation of that theory. Also Saudi Arabia is doomed. The kingdom will be collateral damage in the poaching war (its not hot, its not cold) ... to hit russia, the US is doing its best to bring Iran back online. US is self sufficient so they don't fear supply crunch, Europe is moving fast with renewable energy ... and we have ni…
The U.S. is not self sufficient at current production. The U.S. produces almost 9 million barrels a day and uses almost 19 million. The U.S. could be self sufficient but the permit restrictions on shallow water drilling as well as other political issues make self sufficiency a ways off. As far as Europe and renewables, I think the perception is far more positive than the reality. Windmills and solar provide a very sm…
This is a basic challenge to our attempts to get off fossil fuels. The only way for alternative energy sources to be viable is if they are cheaper than fossil fuel. But since fossil fuel supply outstrips demand, and prices have been set since the 1970s by cartel rather than market forces, there's always been the potential for the cartel to simply drop prices through the floor if they felt it would advance their inter…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Maybe the desert they'll return to will be one with schools, technology and ...progress.
I think he's quoting (paraphrasing) a Saudi Arabian prince/king.
"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel."
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Although Peak Oil won't really happen if demand drops before we hit the supply peak. We might transition to renewables and eventually fusion and never actually experience the specific dynamic Peak Oil envisioned.
We're almost certainly talking about a period inside the next ten years. You think solar is good to go on a massive scale so soon? I don't. The shale and tar sands stuff is a bit of a joke. We're talking total proven reserves equivalent to something like six years of US consumption. I'm sure it has made some people rich and will make others rich, but it means approximately nothing in the grand scheme of things. Very…
I've been hearing this "doom and gloom" since the mid-90's. We're always 10 years away from a complete collapse of our oil-based economy and a Mad Max style dystopian society.
We were 10 years away in 1994, we were 10 years away in 2004, and then in 2014. I will bet you $10 right now that you'll declare in 2024 that Peak Oil is going to hit us in 2034.
And now we have cheaper gas than we've had in a while, and we're producing more and more. Why would "I" (average Joe Blow) believe the doom-and-gloom crowd, ever? Even if "Peak oil" was literally next Wednesday, fewer and fewer people will listen.
This is a basic challenge to our attempts to get off fossil fuels. The only way for alternative energy sources to be viable is if they are cheaper than fossil fuel. But since fossil fuel supply outstrips demand, and prices have been set since the 1970s by cartel rather than market forces, there's always been the potential for the cartel to simply drop prices through the floor if they felt it would advance their inter…
There is no reason besides lack of political will that that goal couldn't be achieved through policy.
Good luck with that political will.