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The decline of Vancouver

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Re: The decline of Vancouver

#121
Kudos to this article for pointing out the problem: absentee foreign investors, often laundering dirty money. Real estate in the most desirable cities is becoming the 21st century's Nazi Gold: stolen wealth that is parked in another country, and with too many third-party beneficiaries who refuse to do the right thing.

Here's another factor that doesn't get much play: price inelasticity. Consider the 1970s oil crises. A 5% drop in supply availability would cause prices to go up 4-5 times. People can look at the statistics and say, "This only effects 10% of property, so it's not a big deal." Wrong. A small amount of supply destruction or removal can have a huge effect on the price. Why do you think De Beers sits on vaults of unused diamonds?

Inelasticity has an interesting effect of creating a lot of fake wealth, which is why so many people are complicit in the crime: Baby Boomer NIMBYs in California who don't give a damn either way about Chinese corruption or money laundering, but who become financially vested in blocking any positive change that might threaten property values by increasing supply (i.e. letting the market do what it's fucking supposed to do).

Too many people are afraid to appear politically incorrect by blaming overseas malefactors. First, it's not just "the Chinese". It's corrupt officials and criminals from all over the world: including some from rich European countries like Italy and France. You don't see them in the SF or Vancouver market, but you have a lot of European drug kingpins buying in Manhattan. Second: these people are the exact opposite of the traditional immigrants that made (and are continuing to make) the U.S. and Canada great. The traditional immigrants were and are trying to get away from poverty, oppression, and a lack of opportunity. They were trying to escape the flaws of other (often corrupt and failing) societies. We welcomed them with open arms, as we should, even though many of them had nothing in terms of economic wealth. These new buyers are the opposite, because they often don't live here (and won't, unless they get caught stealing from their home countries and have to escape) and because they are just trying to park their ill-gotten assets somewhere. Instead of trying to escape from corrupt societies, they're people who actively profit from overseas corruption and our using our real estate to launder their loot.

Re: The decline of Vancouver

#122

Kudos to this article for pointing out the problem: absentee foreign investors, often laundering dirty money. Real estate in the most desirable cities is becoming the 21st century's Nazi Gold: stolen wealth that is parked in another country, and with too many third-party beneficiaries who refuse to do the right thing. Here's another factor that doesn't get much play: price inelasticity. Consider the 1970s oil crises.…

Real estate hyperinflation is a scourge of the modern world. It is time for cities and even countries to act to curtail absentee landlords playing Ponzi games with real estate to the extreme detriment of cities, culture, and the real economy. This is the worst kind of non productive market pathology... Worse in many ways than stock market bubbles and non-physical financial Ponzi schemes.

Kudos for pointing out the complicity of baby boomer land owners in this. It's another way for them to screw their children, something they've been systemically good at.

Re: The decline of Vancouver

#123

Vancouver is one of the worst places to live in the western world imo. Poverty and violence are much bigger problems than people realize. I have many friends who already have pretty bad health problems, and they're only in their 20s. I have no idea why this is happening, but I believe stress and hopelessness must be playing a large role. Kids can't seem to afford to do anything in this city except abuse drugs and van…

I've lived in Vancouver for 15 years and have no idea how you can even come close to those conclusions. Maybe you live in a different world than me but I have never felt close to unsafe in the city and don't know anyone with health problems in their 20's. Yeah, buying a house is expensive but rent isn't unreasonable if you're ok with roommates. In the summer I'd argue its one of the best cities in the western world.…

I totally agree. I would also add the plenty of sunshine without the oppressive heat. I always quipped that most places I'd like to visit are only worth visiting in the summer, but man it's hard to leave Vancouver when the sun is out!

Re: The decline of Vancouver

#124
post #91

Vancouver is one of the worst places to live in the western world imo. Poverty and violence are much bigger problems than people realize. I have many friends who already have pretty bad health problems, and they're only in their 20s. I have no idea why this is happening, but I believe stress and hopelessness must be playing a large role. Kids can't seem to afford to do anything in this city except abuse drugs and van…

The Chinese live in Richmond and West Van, the Indians live in Surrey, and the other ethnicities (Aboriginals, Caucasians, etc.) are getting squeezed in the middle. It's quite sad. That may sound nice but it's not as neatly put as that. The way you phrase it it seems the Caucasians are the victims here, being squeezed on all sides by the Chinese and the Indians. Certainly the struggles of the Aboriginals are well-doc…

I think the GP is confusing West Side with West Van.

Re: The decline of Vancouver

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair description. I would say the quality of life will easily be higher in Vancouver depending on what you value, despite the slightly lower wages. Healthcare is much more affordable than the States, the public transportation blows Seattle out of the water. Housing is much more affordable than SF and on par with Seattle. Skiing, biking, and outdoors in Van is closer and cheaper. Easily as diverse as Seattle, just dif…

i stand to be corrected on the subsidies part! Did some more research this morning. It seems that the reports are generally focused more on how other cities are providing more subsidies than Vancouver, rather than Vancouver stopped providing subsidies. Definitely agree Vancouver is awesome to live in. To be perfectly honest, I'd love to move back to Vancouver. It's a very nice city, nice enough that I'd want to visit…

Vancouver's transportation is really good. Just the other day this article came out comparing all the cities in the west and Vancouver came out on top in terms of percentage of commuters who take transit. 20% vs SF's 15%. http://www.biv.com/article/2015/3/who-takes-transit-work-met...

Re: The decline of Vancouver

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Experientially, Vancouver has high rental prices, and a shortage of rental properties on the lower end. I don't think the numbers reported by the site you linked to accurately reflect the reality of living in a city like Vancouver. Counter evidence: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/vancouver-tops-list-of-most-... And http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2014/02/vancouver-expensive-city-...

Vancouver has high rental prices Compared to most other cities, yes. Compared to the cost to buy identical properties, Vancouver's rental prices are extraordinarily low. I'm paying $1700/month to rent a two-bedroom condo which would sell for around $500k; after strata fees and property taxes, my landlord is making less money than if he had bought Government of Canada bonds. If you look at detached houses, the situati…

This is effectively the difference in market clearing functions between cash-only and government-underwritten credit-based markets. For a variety of historical reasons, governments around the world have enacted an infrastructure of government-backed credit and near-"exorbitant privilege"-level asset treatments (in many areas like regulatory, legislative, judicial, financial...the reach is quite broad) for residential real estate.

I have contrary views regarding this differential treatment, which I consider excessively improvident in our current era. But the views are strongly unpopular in the mainstream and the mainstream views are embedded into the very warp and weft of most people's conception of wealth and income, so I shy away from discussing my views in depth (and HN is not the forum to explore the attending issues).

However, in much of the discussion surrounding Piketty's recent work [1], there is increasing acknowledgement of the role the growth in housing asset pricing (interpreted as "wealth" in most venues) is playing in the increasing returns to capital-holders. Whether those returns are ever-increasing or only currently-increasing depends upon whether you think Piketty or Rognlie is more persuasive, respectively.

This somewhat parallels our industry's own discussions around the productive or dubious nature and wealth-building or wealth-destroying trend of so much enormous human talent and inventiveness devoted to what proponents call new forms of capital and economics, and detractors call frivolous ("cat memes"). This discussion is far from over. There's a deeper, more philosophically-oriented set of decisions that our polities around the globe will have to grapple with in the unfolding years ahead, regarding the nature of wealth, income, and money.

[1] http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2014/06/thomas-p...

Re: The decline of Vancouver

#127
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hear hear! Here's my comment to back up dennispi post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9245915 As per my post (the TL;DR summary here...): Intermediate Engineer 90k or more, Senior 110k or more. Better health insurance/coverage. For example: child-birth cost almost nothing (VIP room costs $100 ish for 2-3 days after corp. insurance cover the rest, regular room is covered by basic health insurance I think). >Fina…

So, the salary is still half SF, and 2 hrs away w/ TN Seattle pays %90 SF. And cheaper housing. LA is highway culture, SF the city is transit culture.

I've been away from SF for a couple years now but I have a hard time believing that the average programmer is being paid ~200k. The salaries the GP listed seem about 80% of SF salaries to me.

Re: The decline of Vancouver

#128
post #36

From Vancouver, love the city but had to leave. Almost all of my friends left too. Cost of living was one thing but the quality of life just wasn't there for the suburban commuters and the city always felt depressed. There was no heart beat when walking the streets.

I lived there for a couple of years, and couldn't agree more. There's a lot of awesome people making their best efforts to counter it, but really it's a dead city. I remember realizing that all the cafes closed around 6 or 7 in the downtown area, then finding out it was because of lack of demand. A city of 2.5 million people that can't keep a coffee shop open past dinner - coming from Toronto it was bizarre. I also r…

I've lived in Vancouver since 2007 and have rented 3 places within the city and 2 in the suburbs (Richmond and Maple Ridge). I was only turned down from getting the place I wanted once, and that was purely because I called back an hour after I said I would respond and the landlady had given it to another person.

Re: The decline of Vancouver

#129
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> due to the large number of homes which are owned by foreigners and are vacant. I'm not aware of a concrete way of measuring this.. but anecdotally, I suspect it's close to 30-40% of the downtown residential core. There have been studies out of UBC that estimate 30%+ van can't condos in the downtown area by using anonymize do BCHydro electricity usage data. As far as I know this number has been increasing. This has…

>the large number of homes which are owned by foreigners and are vacant. I'm not aware of a concrete way of measuring this. I saw an interview on CBC about this and the person interviewed simply said "Look up." He pointed to row after row of full condominium buildings with only two or three lights on in each building.

I do the same test in my fully occupied 40 unit townhouse in Vancouver at night. At any given time, most of the lights are out.

I just wish the media didn't try to spread so much FUD just to sell views.

Re: The decline of Vancouver

#130
post #119
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, the salary is still half SF, and 2 hrs away w/ TN Seattle pays %90 SF. And cheaper housing. LA is highway culture, SF the city is transit culture.

Transit culture? Is that the idiotic 'I love sitting 3 hours a day in a bus going up and down 101 from my home to my employer in the South Bay and back'?

Seriously, the public transit is only great in San Francisco if you're only comparing it to the rest of California.
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