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The Little “Fighter” That Couldn’t: Moral Hazard and the F-35

jqpublicblog.com

81–90 of 233 posts

Re: The Little “Fighter” That Couldn’t: Moral Hazard and the F-35

#81

The author mentions "perverse" incentives in Congress, but what he doesn't mention (because it's a very politically difficult subject) is the perverse incentives afforded military officers. When you have a system in which it's so common as to be expected that the officers who influence your purchasing will in a couple years retire into a job with the private contractor from whom you're purchasing, you have a recipe f…

The basic perversity is building a gigantic military in peacetime because the arms companies have enormous lobbying power. Everything else flows from and is secondary to that.

Gigantic? http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/24/us/politics/pentagon-plans...

Have you considered the gigantic military requirements that are placed on the United States? By treaty alone, the US is required to defend almost all of Europe, Japan, and South Korea. These are not easy requirements to disentangle from; if Japan alone were allowed and required to rearm, it could lead to an arms race that would destabilize all of East Asia and either stall or undo the tremendous economic gains that have been achieved in that region. If it wasn't for US obligations towards NATO, most of Eastern Europe would suffer the same fate that Ukraine is facing from Russia. If it wasn't for the US Navy enforcing freedom of navigation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_navigation#United_St...), tinpot dictators could shut down international trade by making and enforcing illegal claims on international waters.

Maintaining the Pax Americana is a hard, unappreciated task.

Re: The Little “Fighter” That Couldn’t: Moral Hazard and the F-35

#82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the mission becomes opposing ISIS style forces, I doubt guns will be obsolete.

For attacking an enemy that doesn't have and real air defences they shouldn't be using a multirole jet fighter like the F-35 or a jet ground attack aircraft like the A-10. They're both way too expensive to run. They should be using a counter-insurgency aircraft, like the A-26s the Afghan Air Force is about to receive.

Not having a real air force is not the same as not having real air defenses. And the A-10 may be a juicy target for air superiority fighters, it's very resilient against ground-based firepower.

Re: The Little “Fighter” That Couldn’t: Moral Hazard and the F-35

#83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've heard that the Marines actually have really good air support, because they have their own planes Why can't the army buy the same planes, are they not being manufactured any more?

The Marines use the F/A-18 Hornet and, for close air support in particular, the AV-8B Harrier. Both are slated for replacement by F-35 variants. They also fly the AH-1 Cobra, which the Army already replaced with the Apache.

Is the Cobra still in service? I had no idea.

Re: The Little “Fighter” That Couldn’t: Moral Hazard and the F-35

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Utterly false. Prior to involvement in World War 2, the US had hardly any standing army and rather weak tooling industries (being wiped out by the Great Depression) and yet still managed to field like 2 million troops and vast amounts of weapons for allies in a very short period of time.

The US began the WWII draft over a year before Pearl Harbor, and was manufacturing arms for the Allies months ahead of Pearl Harbor as well. Even a weakened American industrial base was significantly larger than that of any other country in the world at the time ( http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm ). World War II was an unusual case, though. Every war since then has been a relatively limited one in the sense…

That may mean that the population doesn't really support those conflicts. There's a term for the government following the wishes of the population, what is it...

Re: The Little “Fighter” That Couldn’t: Moral Hazard and the F-35

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The basic perversity is building a gigantic military in peacetime because the arms companies have enormous lobbying power. Everything else flows from and is secondary to that.

Gigantic? http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/24/us/politics/pentagon-plans... Have you considered the gigantic military requirements that are placed on the United States? By treaty alone, the US is required to defend almost all of Europe, Japan, and South Korea. These are not easy requirements to disentangle from; if Japan alone were allowed and required to rearm, it could lead to an arms race that would destabilize all…

I'm not sure why the parent was modded down. It's 'settled theory' in the foreign policy world, though what philwelch lists are significant risks and not certainties.

Also, I would add our obiligation to ensure the flow of energy from the Middle East.

There are many benefits to being a hegemon, but it comes with obligations too.

Re: The Little “Fighter” That Couldn’t: Moral Hazard and the F-35

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Utterly false. Prior to involvement in World War 2, the US had hardly any standing army and rather weak tooling industries (being wiped out by the Great Depression) and yet still managed to field like 2 million troops and vast amounts of weapons for allies in a very short period of time.

I don't know how this was downvoted - it's completely true. Read any bio of Eisenhower. Eisenhower was involved in big experiments just to see if men and materiel could even be moved across country in the US by wheeled vehicles.

> I don't know how this was downvoted

Perhaps it was the tone, "utterly false". When I see writing like that, I generally stop reading; often what follows is another hyperbolic Internet rant and I've seen enough of them for my lifetime.

Re: The Little “Fighter” That Couldn’t: Moral Hazard and the F-35

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US began the WWII draft over a year before Pearl Harbor, and was manufacturing arms for the Allies months ahead of Pearl Harbor as well. Even a weakened American industrial base was significantly larger than that of any other country in the world at the time ( http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm ). World War II was an unusual case, though. Every war since then has been a relatively limited one in the sense…

That may mean that the population doesn't really support those conflicts. There's a term for the government following the wishes of the population, what is it...

Beating up countries like North Vietnam, Grenada, Panama, Serbia, and Iraq doesn't require the same level of effort, and all of those wars were made possible by the large standing military the US had. Without a standing military, we would have had to skip those wars, which would be fine in some cases (Vietnam) and potentially disastrous in others (Iraq 1991, Serbia).

Re: The Little “Fighter” That Couldn’t: Moral Hazard and the F-35

#88
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When the F-4 Phantom was developed, missiles were extremely unreliable, only around one in ten hit the target they were launched against, and they could only be launched in a fairly limited circumstances. Around 1975-1985, technology advanced and new generation of missiles entered service. They became reliable, and they could be launched successfully from a wider ranger of circumstances. Around 1995-2005, technology…

Unless, of course, you're interested in strafing what's on the ground. If you carry 8 missiles, you have 8 shots. Assuming you can get a lock on what's on the ground. If you have 10-30s of 20mm or larger, you can do wonders on, say, a convoy of trucks. While we used to have different planes for different tasks, the staggering costs of current/future models is killing off such things. And as there's no external threat…

> Unless, of course, you're interested in strafing what's on the ground

My (very limited) understanding is this: Against far inferior enemies such as ISIS and the Taliban, strafing works fine. But against peer enemies, such as the Russians, we'll never get close enough to strafe. Also, guided munitions are so much more accurate than unguided ones (such as bullets) that the number of hits is comparable. What we could do with hundreds (thousands?) of unguided munitions before, we now can do with 1-2 guided ones fired from a thousand miles away.

We lack the resources to develop and buy everything we want; we can't afford it and the sequester enforced by the GOP makes it even worse. If we invest in tools to defeat ISIS, we'll get crushed by peer enemies. We need to invest in beating our peers; we will defeat ISIS regardless (at least on the battlefield), even if the tools aren't optimal for the task.

Re: The Little “Fighter” That Couldn’t: Moral Hazard and the F-35

#89
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Marines use the F/A-18 Hornet and, for close air support in particular, the AV-8B Harrier. Both are slated for replacement by F-35 variants. They also fly the AH-1 Cobra, which the Army already replaced with the Apache.

Is the Cobra still in service? I had no idea.

Yes, with the Marine Corps, as well as Taiwan, Turkey, and Iran: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bell_AH-1_SuperCobra#Operators

Re: The Little “Fighter” That Couldn’t: Moral Hazard and the F-35

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They flew single-engined jets in the 1950s and early 1960s when engines were horrifically unreliable ( most notoriously the F3H Demon with the shocking J71 ). And that didn't deter then from doing it again later with the A-7, A-4 and F-8.

And then they learned from that lesson and today they operate the F/A-18, which, if you count all of its variants, is one of the most successful naval aircraft of all time despite having a very ambitious multi-role mission.

> the F/A-18, which, if you count all of its variants, is one of the most successful naval aircraft of all time despite having a very ambitious multi-role mission.

How is it "successful"? Has one ever been in a real fight? Almost all of our airplanes are untested (which is a good thing).

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