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How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

nymag.com

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Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#211
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia took down another Malaysian Airlines plane and virtually nothing has come of that.

Full of Dutch nationals, not Chinese. Also, it's unlikely that "Russia" took it down, they merely supplied the weaponry to a bunch of incompetent hotheads who accidentally shot it down.

Included Australians too which incensed our government, but what can realistically be done? What's changed as a result?

And I don't think they accidentally shot down the plane. They might've assumed it was a different plane, but from what I could tell, they intended to shoot it down. If I'm trying to avoid accidentally shooting down planes, I'm generally not firing surface-to-air missiles about the place.

It was an arms-length Russian crew then, and that could well have been the case with the other Malaysian plane. Professional support but professional deniability.

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#212
post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This is established scientific philosophy within academia. Well, I'm sure that is proof of its correctness? >What is happening is that you have formed a very reliable conclusion based on intuition, you haven't gathered proof. That's what proof is. Saying proof is not proof is not all that useful a conclusion to draw. >it is actually fundamentally impossible to establish a "proof." See? That's why it's a stupid concl…

>Correlations are what the word "proof" refers to. >That's what proof is. Saying proof is not proof is not all that useful a conclusion to draw. No. Proof is a synonym for causation not correlation. Establishing correlation between stork population and baby population is not establishing proof that storks bring babies to mothers. Proof and correlation are entirely different things. >See? That's why it's a stupid conc…

I didn't say proof is a synonym for correlation, I said proof refers to correlation. Causation is itself a kind of correlation, but I wouldn't wouldn't call either of them synonyms. They are structural relations on experience.

Proof will compel rational systems into agreement. If I submit a proof to a computer, it will consume it and output that-which-was-proved. The correlation between the structure of the inputs and outputs are what the word 'proof' refers to. It's not that complicated.

>You're attempting to deny the validity of my argument by shifting the context into some vague definition of the word proof.

I'm not defining proof, I'm just telling you what it is. Words don't require definition to have meaning.

>Sure applying the scientific method to daily life is stupid

I don't know why you'd say this or why you think I'd agree with it.

You are starting from the assumption that science doesn't proof things (a statement that you no doubt have no proof of) and used it to conclude that proof is meaningless. What a fine conclusion -- it's utterly useless. But rather than imagine that your assumption was wrong, you want to dig in because "so many people" told you it was correct. Well? Give me a proof. Why should anyone believe these things? What rational advantage do you have by claiming proof is impossible?

Furthermore, why would you -- while saying proof is impossible -- ignore the fact that mathematics -- a discipline completely enamored with proof -- be a useful basis for science if science had no need of proof? Does that not strike you as completely absurd? Why would you believe such a thing?

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're quoting from a TV interview focused on a very narrow question (specific kind of evidence, specific location, specific killing mechanism, etc.) -- and treating an offhand interjection from an interviewer as some kind of BBC statement. Neither of us is qualified to judge this, and certainly NOT from such a third-hand source. The gap between the Le Monde excerpt you quote and your claim about what it shows is sim…

I don't understand your complaint about the narrow focus here. This is on purpose. No one says Jews didn't suffer. They were round up and uprooted and shoved into trains and drained of their wealth and they suffered immense and undeniable horrors along with all sorts of other victim groups. The narrow focus here is on the question of gas chambers. This specific alleged killing mechanism never existed. It is a conspir…

[deleted]

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#214
post #87
post #32

I think the main point of the story is not to convince us that he has a good proof. But rather to document how we convince ourselves, and how we latch on to small things and head down a path. Once we are on a path we become commited to it and it becomes hard to turn back. Notice how he talks about the "crazies" on the forum. How they would use aliases, log back in and mention their stupid "lightning" theory, and he h…

I don't think the average reader is going to interpret this as subtle irony, and I have doubts that it was intended to be taken that way. I think an average reader going to see that an airplane expert smells something fishy and has a bunch of technical "knowledge" to back it up. This is how conspiracy theories get started, and if this guy really understands how unlikely all this is, it is arguably irresponsible of hi…

> What kind of journalism gets published with such little substantiation?

Uhh....so, so much of journalism today is exactly that; to the point that articles that are substantial are the exception.

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#215
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correct, but some people are rejecting every conspiracy theory on the sole ground that it assumes conspiracy, and this heuristic is not critical thinking.

Given the amount of signal vs noise, I think it's pretty reasonable to ignore the crazies until they can back up their claims with hard evidence. If they can't do that, their "theory" isn't worth my time. Now if one of the crazies keeps bugging me with his theory, I might apply critical thinking to shut him up, if I don't lose patience and punch him in the face first.

You've just contradicted yourself. On the one hand you state critical thinking is key and on the other hand you dismiss questioning popular opinion as crazy.

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#216
post #160

The scenario described in the article could only have gone down with the support of a state level actor. In foreign affairs, states are mostly rational and risk-averse. The risk involved in such an operation would have been astronomical: - It stretches the imagination that in the Post-9/11 world, hijackers could access a panel in the cabin without raising passenger and crew suspicion. So the hijackers would have requ…

Exactly. Too much work, risk and investment for a very limited gain. I'd still bet my money on an unknown technical fault, everything else is just speculations with no proof whatsoever.

To be fair, the point of the theory is that the gain could very well have been worth the investment.

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're quoting from a TV interview focused on a very narrow question (specific kind of evidence, specific location, specific killing mechanism, etc.) -- and treating an offhand interjection from an interviewer as some kind of BBC statement. Neither of us is qualified to judge this, and certainly NOT from such a third-hand source. The gap between the Le Monde excerpt you quote and your claim about what it shows is sim…

I don't understand your complaint about the narrow focus here. This is on purpose. No one says Jews didn't suffer. They were round up and uprooted and shoved into trains and drained of their wealth and they suffered immense and undeniable horrors along with all sorts of other victim groups. The narrow focus here is on the question of gas chambers. This specific alleged killing mechanism never existed. It is a conspir…

I will post here a response to a reply that was briefly posted but then deleted.

> Gas chambers did exist

There were definitely delousing chambers that no mainstream historian denies were used to control the typhus epidemic. If you call those gas chambers, fine. Generally, when this topic is being discussed, "gas chambers" is a shorthand for homicidal gas chambers. IF you have evidence for those, please show.

I'm sorry if you think I am deliberately trying to twist things. I'm not. Yes, there were many camps. Out of all the concentration camps, only these camps in Poland are nowadays said to have housed homicidal gas chambers: Auschwitz, Majdanek, and Treblinka etc (etc being Sobibor, Belzec, Chelmno). Also of notice is that only those camps liberated by the Soviets are said today to have housed gas chambers. Right after the war, and for quite some time, it was said there were gas chambers in Dachau and in all the 17 german camps. Today no mainstream historian argues that no german camp had ever housed gas chambers.

Indeed some camps were transit camps, like Treblinka, even though Arad himself (a prominent mainstream jewish holocaust historian) argues in his book that Treblinka was a death camp, and that all who arrived were killed within 15 minutes. This can be easily dismissed by listening to the testimonies themselves, many of which relate that they stopped at Treblinka, took a shower, re-entered the trains and headed to other camps; we also have tons of photos of train tickets showing Treblinka as a transit camp.

Yes, we have eyewitness testimony. Have you looked into them yourself? I have. We can talk about it after you do. The testimonies are entirely exaggerated and have no basis in reality. Dario Gabbai, a self-alleged Sonderkommando (the folks that allegedly operated the gas chambers), said he would cut the hair of the "gassed victims" after they were gassed. He said the victims would turn black and blue, and he'd walk inside the chamber, treading over the corpses, to cut their hair after the fact. I can link you the video to Dario Gabbai himself saying these things but it's on Youtube. This is in direct contradiction with what we know from pictures happened, namely that they had their hair cut as a life-saving measure to avoid typhus through hair lice, which was done, obviously, before they shwoered, and not after they were "gassed".

Regarding Prussic acid, it is a mainstream fact that 95% of all Zyklon-B was used for delousing purposes. The exterminationists have to try and explain the death of 6 million people with only 5% of the available Zyklon-B. Regarding engine exhaust, if you read Pressac, who was a "holocaust denier" (to use your terms) but converted to being an exterminationist, you will see the story about the engine exhaust is very hard to explain and has several technical problems. It is variedly told to be a submarine engine, a Soviet tank diesel engine (which doesn't work for gassing), etc, while no evidence of such engine has ever been found. Plus, it seems a rather ad hoc method for the exterminationists to tout, when usually they defend there was a policy of systematic killing.

I don't believe millions of Jews were killed, because no one has bothered to put together a cogent case for the logistics thereof. Pressac in his book about the operations of the gas chambers attempts to do just that and comes incredibly short of it. I'm definitely interested in that evidence so if you come across it, please send it my way. One of the reasons I got interested in this topic was precisely because the purported method of killing was so dehumanizing and so fantastical that I wanted to know the details. Then I found out there are no details being put forward by the exterminationists.

If there were a cogent case to be made about the holocaust, it would have been made during the trial where Sylvia Stolz worked. The person she was defending was being accused of "denying the holocaust" when no forensic definition for "holocaust" exists. There is no case that can be constructed to define what the holocaust was because it is based entirely on second-hand hearsay and dubious stories of supposed participants that do not match the reality of the events.

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#218
post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Correlations are what the word "proof" refers to. >That's what proof is. Saying proof is not proof is not all that useful a conclusion to draw. No. Proof is a synonym for causation not correlation. Establishing correlation between stork population and baby population is not establishing proof that storks bring babies to mothers. Proof and correlation are entirely different things. >See? That's why it's a stupid conc…

I didn't say proof is a synonym for correlation, I said proof refers to correlation. Causation is itself a kind of correlation, but I wouldn't wouldn't call either of them synonyms. They are structural relations on experience. Proof will compel rational systems into agreement. If I submit a proof to a computer, it will consume it and output that-which-was-proved. The correlation between the structure of the inputs an…

>What rational advantage do you have by claiming proof is impossible?

Rational advantage? You think I'm just stating bullshit for some kind of advantage? Look it up yourself. When did I say "so many people" told me so. Nobody told me shit, You can look this stuff up, it's established academic knowledge. Here's a link to start off with:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability

>Furthermore, why would you -- while saying proof is impossible -- ignore the fact that mathematics -- a discipline completely enamored with proof -- be a useful basis for science if science had no need of proof? Does that not strike you as completely absurd? Why would you believe such a thing?

Look up the mathematics section on that wikipedia page I just linked. first line: "Many philosophers believe that mathematics is not experimentally falsifiable, and thus not a science"

Now the question you should ask yourself is not why I would believe such a thing but why it strikes you as completely absurd when it's common knowledge in science.

>You are starting from the assumption that science doesn't proof things (a statement that you no doubt have no proof of) and used it to conclude that proof is meaningless. What a fine conclusion -- it's utterly useless. But rather than imagine that your assumption was wrong, you want to dig in because "so many people" told you it was correct. Well? Give me a proof. Why should anyone believe these things?

Have you ever done science? You know the first thing they do after they come up with a hypothesis? I can tell you they don't immediately try to prove the hypothesis. The first thing they do is convert the hypothesis to a NULL hypothesis and then they try to DISPROVE it. It is the central tenant and quest of science to disprove the NULL hypothesis. Why do you think they do this? Does this not strike you as odd?

If you STILL don't believe me then take a look at the following page:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_evidence#Concept_of_...

I found this page on wikipedia searching for "scientific proof." Anyway, to "prove" what I say has legitimacy please read the following:

Under the section "Utility of Scientific Evidence": "Philosophers, such as Karl R. Popper, have provided influential theories of the scientific method within which scientific evidence plays a central role.[6] In summary, Popper provides that a scientist creatively develops a theory which may be falsified by testing the theory against evidence or known facts. Popper's theory presents an asymmetry in that evidence can prove a theory wrong, by establishing facts that are inconsistent with the theory. In contrast, evidence cannot prove a theory correct because other evidence, yet to be discovered, may exist that is inconsistent with the theory.[7]"

Did you get that? He says "Science cannot prove a theory correct." Read that and understand it. I guarantee your perspective of the world will widen as a result. I know we're a little hostile right now but if you put that aside and try to internalize and understand what he says then this knowledge you gain will represent a paradigm shift in your understanding of the world. It did for me.

Now go to the end of that page and read the last paragraph: "While the phrase "scientific proof" is often used in the popular media,[13] many scientists have argued that there is really no such thing. For example, Karl Popper once wrote that "In the empirical sciences, which alone can furnish us with information about the world we live in, proofs do not occur, if we mean by 'proof' an argument which establishes once and for ever the truth of a theory,"[14] and Satoshi Kanazawa has argued that "Proofs exist only in mathematics and logic, not in science."[15]"

If you understood what you just read then not only should you know why proving things is impossible, you should also know that the nonexistence of proof in reality is established scientific knowledge.

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the amount of signal vs noise, I think it's pretty reasonable to ignore the crazies until they can back up their claims with hard evidence. If they can't do that, their "theory" isn't worth my time. Now if one of the crazies keeps bugging me with his theory, I might apply critical thinking to shut him up, if I don't lose patience and punch him in the face first.

You've just contradicted yourself. On the one hand you state critical thinking is key and on the other hand you dismiss questioning popular opinion as crazy.

Conspiracy theories are not "questioning popular opinion". You can question popular opinion without coming up with crazy theories, or at least, you should take them as what they are: wild guesses at what might explain some discrepancies in that popular opinion.

Conspiracy theorists usually show a strong belief in something pretty improbable without a shred of tangible evidence. I think it's fair to label them as "crazies" because they tend to be very vocal about it and impervious to logical flaws in their own theories. And they're annoying, when you annoy people, you can expect some kind of negative feedback, like being mocked or called names.

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#220
post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't say proof is a synonym for correlation, I said proof refers to correlation. Causation is itself a kind of correlation, but I wouldn't wouldn't call either of them synonyms. They are structural relations on experience. Proof will compel rational systems into agreement. If I submit a proof to a computer, it will consume it and output that-which-was-proved. The correlation between the structure of the inputs an…

>What rational advantage do you have by claiming proof is impossible? Rational advantage? You think I'm just stating bullshit for some kind of advantage? Look it up yourself. When did I say "so many people" told me so. Nobody told me shit, You can look this stuff up, it's established academic knowledge. Here's a link to start off with: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability >Furthermore, why would you -- while s…

First off, I'm not uninformed on these matters. I've read all this before, and I don't need a lecture. I was in your shoes at one time.

>he first thing they do is convert the hypothesis to a NULL hypothesis and then they try to DISPROVE it.

Yes, you do a straightforward bijective transformation using no new information, and apparently everything is different. That's not important. You're just highlighting a duality between proof and disproof. You're proving invalidity rather than validity. It's still proof.

As for the rest of your post: Appeal to authority is not an argument. Appeal to popularity is not an argument. These people are wrong. That's essentially what I'm arguing.

I'm not claiming that everyone agrees with me. So why would I debate that? Why are you debating that?

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