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How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

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Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#141

Post by cturner »

runn1ng wrote: post #138
cturner wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's less probable that a bunch of those people are > all in on it together. The larger the consensus, the > easier it is to trust. No. It's in consensus that big lies get their best cover. History is awash with big lies hiding in consensus. Slavery is ok. Aristotlean theory of elements. Female inferiority. Divine right of kings. White man's burden. Inevitability of the technocrats. House prices always go up. Objec…

Your post can be applied to mostly any theory ever.

Yes. The key thing I was (attempting to) respond to was the idea that consensus is a good indication of truth. My final sentence overstated things: we all all forced to piece together a worldview with slabs taken from consensus, but it's something to be concerned about, not celebrated. It's much easier to get duped by consensus than a single voice that's smarter than you.

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#142

Post by david-given »

crimsonalucard wrote: post #54
rdtsc wrote: post #32

I think the main point of the story is not to convince us that he has a good proof. But rather to document how we convince ourselves, and how we latch on to small things and head down a path. Once we are on a path we become commited to it and it becomes hard to turn back. Notice how he talks about the "crazies" on the forum. How they would use aliases, log back in and mention their stupid "lightning" theory, and he h…

There is another side to this lesson. I cannot count the amount of times I've read about scientists in the past getting ridiculed for some "crackpot" theory only to be vindicated later. A perfect example is Ohm's law: "Ohm's initial publication was met with ridicule and dismissal; called "a tissue of naked fantasy." Approx. twenty years passed before scientists began to recognize its great importance." The site here…

> I cannot count the amount of times I've read about scientists in the past getting ridiculed for some "crackpot" theory only to be vindicated later.

"But the fact that some geniuses were laughed at does not imply that all who are laughed at are geniuses. They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright Brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown."

-- Carl Sagan

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#143

Post by Arnt »

bentcorner wrote: post #77
bhouston wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I started reading this and then I thought of Occam's Razor. This theory is appears way too complex to be true, something much simpler likely happened.

This whole section seems implausible: > It’s not possible to spoof the BFO data on just any plane. The plane must be of a certain make and model, 17equipped with a certain make and model of satellite-communications equipment,18 and flying a certain kind of route19 in a region covered by a certain kind of Inmarsat satellite.20 If you put all the conditions together, it seemed unlikely that any aircraft would satisfy t…

You know, an airplane completely disappearing IS implausible. Airplane crashes leave debris. Finding much of the plane isn't likely, but finding absolutely nothing if you search in the right place is a stretch. Like looking for straws in a haystack and not finding even one.

http://aviationweek.com/commercial-aviation/emirates-clark-s... says it well.

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#144

Post by scrollaway »

Klinky wrote: post #111
Potando wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it counts as a disease if the majority of people, including most successful people "suffer" from it without any negative consequences for themselves. For example religion.

A mental illness does not have to result in major negative side effects to be considered an illness. People can live very normal looking lives, while also having delusional thoughts.

Or maybe this obsession with calling absolutely everything that doesn't fit the everyday-narrower definition of a "normal person" a mental illness needs to stop.

Next thing you know, "People who don't want to be snooped on by the government have a mental illness and don't understand why it's a good thing."

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#145

Post by ghshephard »

rdtsc wrote: post #32

I think the main point of the story is not to convince us that he has a good proof. But rather to document how we convince ourselves, and how we latch on to small things and head down a path. Once we are on a path we become commited to it and it becomes hard to turn back. Notice how he talks about the "crazies" on the forum. How they would use aliases, log back in and mention their stupid "lightning" theory, and he h…

I thought that he was being pretty clear throughout the article that this was a description of his personal journey into becoming a "believer" - despite how ludicrous what he was believing in.

I'm hoping that nobody seriously believes the NYT published this article backing the belief that MH 370 didn't crash.

I mean, it starts with the title of the story - the key line in this entire story is this:

And yet, once I started looking for evidence, I found it.

And, just in case people hadn't picked up on his actual thesis, he explicitly states it near the end:

"Still, it occurred to me that, for all the passion I had for my theory, I might be the only person in the world who felt this way. Neurobiologist Robert A. Burton points out in his book "On Being Certain" that the sensation of being sure about one’s beliefs is an emotional response separate from the processing of those beliefs."

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#147

Post by personlurking »

Klinky wrote: post #97
tbabb wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the average reader is going to interpret this as subtle irony, and I have doubts that it was intended to be taken that way. I think an average reader going to see that an airplane expert smells something fishy and has a bunch of technical "knowledge" to back it up. This is how conspiracy theories get started, and if this guy really understands how unlikely all this is, it is arguably irresponsible of hi…

I think a large portion of the conspiracy theorist population probably has a mental illness that makes them susceptible to delusional thinking. Delusional people can lead very normal fully functioning lives, but mix a certain topic that offers patterns which make their brain go down a certain path, and they suddenly become very adamant about believing something that is illogical and irrational. There is probably litt…

I think you're confusing those who believe in lizard-people with those that might question the government version of certain events. This is the purpose of the term consipracy theory/theorist, to group together anyone who believes in, or merely just questions, a certain accepted event or idea. It really is a great term, as it's something that negates any other possible outcome.

What really should be considered here is the fact that proof requires a scientific setting. One cannot prove anything that occurs outside of a controlled setting, simply because it's not repeatable. Theories, both those set in reality and those that exist outside it, will forever be subject to this fact, and therefore be very questionable to (ie, not accepted by) the masses.

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#148

Post by trhway »

ck2 wrote: post #96

It's amazing how some people think governments can be so precise. This is like "9/11 inside job" level of thinking. We can't even get special forces to do their jobs without publishing books about it, what makes you think more than a handful of people can keep a secret about anything?

>It's amazing how some people think governments can be so precise.

>This is like "9/11 inside job" level of thinking.

precise may be not. Opportunistic - definitely. While i have no doubts about WTC, when i first time saw the released security cam video with Pentagon hit i was surprised how it looks like a hit by a cruise missile not by a huge plane - speed, approach angle and height, explosion style, etc... That immediately prompted me to really look at the damage photos and i just wasn't able to make myself to see a huge plane hit damage, instead i see a damage from a cruise missile.

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#149

Post by kpil »

bentcorner wrote: post #77
bhouston wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I started reading this and then I thought of Occam's Razor. This theory is appears way too complex to be true, something much simpler likely happened.

This whole section seems implausible: > It’s not possible to spoof the BFO data on just any plane. The plane must be of a certain make and model, 17equipped with a certain make and model of satellite-communications equipment,18 and flying a certain kind of route19 in a region covered by a certain kind of Inmarsat satellite.20 If you put all the conditions together, it seemed unlikely that any aircraft would satisfy t…

Here's a simper theory: Some kind of structural failure caused a fire and possibly also a decompression - or the other way around. While following the procedure to handle the problem ( disable AP, descend, turn back, shut down the damaged avionics) the pilots lost consciousness and the plane eventually leveled out and kept flying until it run out of fuel. While it's not likely that something punches a hole in an aeroplane and simultaneously sets it on fire, either from the inside or the outside, it's more likely than any crazy conspiracy theories I've seen so far, including the article.

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#150

Post by guard-of-terra »

bentcorner wrote: post #77
bhouston wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I started reading this and then I thought of Occam's Razor. This theory is appears way too complex to be true, something much simpler likely happened.

This whole section seems implausible: > It’s not possible to spoof the BFO data on just any plane. The plane must be of a certain make and model, 17equipped with a certain make and model of satellite-communications equipment,18 and flying a certain kind of route19 in a region covered by a certain kind of Inmarsat satellite.20 If you put all the conditions together, it seemed unlikely that any aircraft would satisfy t…

Also: why would hijackers need (and indeed rely on) auto-landing?

They would capture perfectly good pilots along with the plane.

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