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How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

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Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#131

Post by jgreen10 »

fluxtemp wrote: post #103
Klinky wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a large portion of the conspiracy theorist population probably has a mental illness that makes them susceptible to delusional thinking. Delusional people can lead very normal fully functioning lives, but mix a certain topic that offers patterns which make their brain go down a certain path, and they suddenly become very adamant about believing something that is illogical and irrational. There is probably litt…

I'd say it's the opposite. The large portion of the population who believes everything the authorities tell them has a mental illness that prevents them from thinking critically and for themselves.

No one believes everything authorities say. Congress has a 15% approval rating ...

Something that confuses a lot of conspiracy theorists is that global issues just aren't as important as local issues to people. Having a house, doing your job, raising your kids, spending time with loved ones, and anything that directly affects your ability to do so (e.g. your health, actions of people around you) are important and have a profound impact on your life.

Sometimes the actions of authorities have a direct impact on your life as well, but mostly at a much smaller scale and with less relevance.

Treating MH370 as something that's important to anyone other than people related to those involved leads to typical thinking errors like assuming Russia would care about this plane, or that people are being deluded. The horrible truth is that the whole thing just doesn't matter much.

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#132

Post by DanBC »

koolkat wrote: post #130
Klinky wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a large portion of the conspiracy theorist population probably has a mental illness that makes them susceptible to delusional thinking. Delusional people can lead very normal fully functioning lives, but mix a certain topic that offers patterns which make their brain go down a certain path, and they suddenly become very adamant about believing something that is illogical and irrational. There is probably litt…

I don't think being a "conspiracy theorist" is delusonal at all if there are overwhelming facts supportig the theory. When did it become crazy to "...have an explanatory proposition that accuses two or more persons, a group, or an organization of having caused or covered up, through secret planning and deliberate action, an illegal or harmful event or situation." Watergate, Iran-contra, prism, the cia drug traffickin…

Conspiracy theories are bizare explanations of events that don't fit reality.

Thus, Iran-Contra is not a conspiracy theory because it's true, even though it is a conspiracy.

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#133

Post by xorcist »

kevin_nisbet wrote: post #56
rdtsc wrote: post #32

I think the main point of the story is not to convince us that he has a good proof. But rather to document how we convince ourselves, and how we latch on to small things and head down a path. Once we are on a path we become commited to it and it becomes hard to turn back. Notice how he talks about the "crazies" on the forum. How they would use aliases, log back in and mention their stupid "lightning" theory, and he h…

This was also the part I found most interesting. Over the past several months, I've been putting an increasing level of thought into how people reach conclusions and investigate technical problems, and looking at things like confirmation bias, and I see it happen in myself and others. The best example I have, is a vendor I work with had an outage in their platform, and we spent weeks going through the data, where the…

I hope the lesson learned from that particular story is "document why things are done the way they are". Not "when you don't understand why things are done in a certain way, feel free to break it".

No. Make sure to understand, deeply, ("speak to the great great grandmother") before you give in to that urge.

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#134

Post by Ar-Curunir »

DanBC wrote: post #132
koolkat wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think being a "conspiracy theorist" is delusonal at all if there are overwhelming facts supportig the theory. When did it become crazy to "...have an explanatory proposition that accuses two or more persons, a group, or an organization of having caused or covered up, through secret planning and deliberate action, an illegal or harmful event or situation." Watergate, Iran-contra, prism, the cia drug traffickin…

Conspiracy theories are bizare explanations of events that don't fit reality. Thus, Iran-Contra is not a conspiracy theory because it's true, even though it is a conspiracy.

That's a ridiculously narrow and exclusionary definition of conspiracy theories, one that's set up to only include those theories that are clearly delusional.

If you asked a average person three years ago whether they thought that all their calls were being recorded and that the NSA was hacking into companies and stealing data you would have been called delusional and your explanation would have been bizarre and unreal. Yet here we are today with clear evidence that all these things are being done with no repercussions for the perpetrators.

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#135

Post by crimsonalucard »

tjradcliffe wrote: post #109
crimsonalucard wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is another side to this lesson. I cannot count the amount of times I've read about scientists in the past getting ridiculed for some "crackpot" theory only to be vindicated later. A perfect example is Ohm's law: "Ohm's initial publication was met with ridicule and dismissal; called "a tissue of naked fantasy." Approx. twenty years passed before scientists began to recognize its great importance." The site here…

> I cannot count the amount of times I've read about scientists in the past getting ridiculed for some "crackpot" theory only to be vindicated later. I can, and it is a much, much smaller number than either: 1) a theory was widely accepted because "it just made sense" and turned out to be false (bloodletting, Aristotle's physics, caloric, aether, bad air causing disease...) or 2) a theory being ridiculed and it turni…

Implausible theories direct the course of systematic validation. Searches and studies are conducted entirely based on theories which all start out with high initial implausibility.

The issue with this plane crash is that most theories from the investigators have a plausibility level that has barely changed from the initial level. This is why it is worth considering to a certain extent some of the more non-mainstream theories.

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#136

Post by Klinky »

DanBC wrote: post #129
Klinky wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a large portion of the conspiracy theorist population probably has a mental illness that makes them susceptible to delusional thinking. Delusional people can lead very normal fully functioning lives, but mix a certain topic that offers patterns which make their brain go down a certain path, and they suddenly become very adamant about believing something that is illogical and irrational. There is probably litt…

What's the prevelance of conspiracy theories? About half of Americans claim creationism explains the existance of man; only about 20% say humans evolved without God. 50% of Americans think there was a wider conspiracy behind the assassination of JFK. About 35% of Americans think that global warming is a hoax. What you're doing is probably the conjunction fallacy. You see people with odd beliefs. You then have a choic…

I think there is a difference between someone who is causally stating an opinion, and someone who has fully subscribed to a specific conspiracy theory.

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#137

Post by zby »

DanBC wrote: post #132
koolkat wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think being a "conspiracy theorist" is delusonal at all if there are overwhelming facts supportig the theory. When did it become crazy to "...have an explanatory proposition that accuses two or more persons, a group, or an organization of having caused or covered up, through secret planning and deliberate action, an illegal or harmful event or situation." Watergate, Iran-contra, prism, the cia drug traffickin…

Conspiracy theories are bizare explanations of events that don't fit reality. Thus, Iran-Contra is not a conspiracy theory because it's true, even though it is a conspiracy.

If Iran-Contra was not discovered you'd think it is a 'bizare explanation' and a conspiracy theory. And it was only by a chance that it was discovered. This is even more evident in the case of Watergate.

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#138

Post by runn1ng »

cturner wrote: post #124
pipermerriam wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've struggled with this as well when it comes to issues that are under heavier debate [1]. I like to think that I am capable of reading most technical things and evaluating them with a healthy skepticism, but at a certain point, I know that I just have to trust people who are smarter than me. One thing I try to pay attention to is consensus. It's probably very easy to get duped by a single voice that's smarter than…

> it's less probable that a bunch of those people are > all in on it together. The larger the consensus, the > easier it is to trust. No. It's in consensus that big lies get their best cover. History is awash with big lies hiding in consensus. Slavery is ok. Aristotlean theory of elements. Female inferiority. Divine right of kings. White man's burden. Inevitability of the technocrats. House prices always go up. Objec…

Your post can be applied to mostly any theory ever.

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#139

Post by joepvd »

rdtsc wrote: post #32

I think the main point of the story is not to convince us that he has a good proof. But rather to document how we convince ourselves, and how we latch on to small things and head down a path. Once we are on a path we become commited to it and it becomes hard to turn back. Notice how he talks about the "crazies" on the forum. How they would use aliases, log back in and mention their stupid "lightning" theory, and he h…

I took this excellent story the same as you did. For me, this is the central point:

    My gut still tells me I’m right, but my brain knows 
    better than to trust my gut.
This is a nice phrasing of one of the things one has to come to term with while becoming a computer professional.

Re: How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

#140

Post by bobmoretti »

raverbashing wrote: post #99
bobmoretti wrote: post #36

The scenario described in the article could only have gone down with the support of a state level actor. In foreign affairs, states are mostly rational and risk-averse. The risk involved in such an operation would have been astronomical: - It stretches the imagination that in the Post-9/11 world, hijackers could access a panel in the cabin without raising passenger and crew suspicion. So the hijackers would have requ…

" but there is still a massive risk that one of these countries might notice the plane on military or other radar" And radar coverage is much bigger in the northern arc. China/Russia/India/Pakistan, etc

Yep, and as someone else mentioned, flying right over one of the more heavily militarized areas of the planet (Kashmir). Also, why would Russia choose to hijack a plane full of Chinese citizens for this? The last thing they want right now is to compromise their relationship with China. It just doesn't make any sense.
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