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Texas Hold'em Hand Strength, Visualized

chrisbeaumont.org

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Re: Texas Hold'em Hand Strength, Visualized

#41

Post by slb »

encoderer wrote: post #37

I don't mean to be OT, but does anybody play online anymore? I paid my (cheap) rent in college playing on FullTilt and PokerStars, but the (unreasonable) gov't crackdown seems to have put an end to online play. Or is there a secret I'm not in on?

Online poker for real money is still strong outside the USA, and there are a few state-specific enterprises (for example, wsop.com and--until recently--the unfortunately named Ultimate Poker in Nevada) starting for USA states that have specifically legalized online poker.

Re: Texas Hold'em Hand Strength, Visualized

#42

Post by cju »

It reminds me the "Temperature Maps" by Sho Sengoku in backgammon [1]. For a given move, it syntheses the equities (somehow probability of winning) for each possible dice roll of the opponent on next turn. It allows among other thing to see how dependent of luck you be after a move (by looking at the contrast between squares).

[1] http://www.bkgm.com/articles/Sengoku/TemperatureMap/index.ht...

Re: Texas Hold'em Hand Strength, Visualized

#43

Post by mod »

scott_s wrote: post #38
mod wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These charts are nothing more than starting hand strengths. There's no mention of 'bidding process' on any street. I'm not even sure how you could extrapolate a betting strategy from the post. It doesn't even mention money, let alone stack sizes, position, or any of the thousands of variables you might factor into an entire strategy.

I think you're in violent agreement with defen. You're probably so entrenched in Texas Hold'em thinking that it didn't even occur to you that a naive player may see this and think, "This hand is great ! I'm going to bet it all!" defen is just pointing out that is a terrible idea, which I think you agree with, but it probably didn't occur to you that anyone could be so naive to even try.

I am in violent agreement with defen, however I'm not with you.

Given a very naive player with a hand they've seen on the chart is great, I'd advise them to bet it all (early/preflop) rather than try to play a hand out. I think they'll be more profitable on average, particularly against a solid player, which defen mentioned.

Re: Texas Hold'em Hand Strength, Visualized

#44

Post by mod »

encoderer wrote: post #37

I don't mean to be OT, but does anybody play online anymore? I paid my (cheap) rent in college playing on FullTilt and PokerStars, but the (unreasonable) gov't crackdown seems to have put an end to online play. Or is there a secret I'm not in on?

There's a couple of sites where you can still play, however there's not much action and you essentially can't cash out.

I have a buddy with ~200k on some network, I think merge, and he has a pending cashout for 2k (the max) that has been pending for months. He can't initiate another until the last has been resolved.

Until about a year ago (post-black-friday, of course) he was able to remove about 12-14k/year, given the wait time per check and the maximum of 2k per check.

You need to move or play in a casino.

Re: Texas Hold'em Hand Strength, Visualized

#45

Post by mod »

highCs wrote: post #40
mod wrote: post #12

Looks like you used heads up hand strengths, and then full-table hand frequencies, and computed weighted hand strenghts based on that--which is a mistake, of course.

Here are (correct?) preflop odds according to number of players: http://www.natesholdem.com/pre-flop-odds.php And then, what's interesting is that with 2 players ak win at 67% and jj win at 77.5% (ak But at 10 players, ak wins at 20% and jj wins at 19.3% (ak > jj) Illustrating the number of players changes the hand strength

That's still not weighted for how often a player plays a given hand. It assumes the opponent will play every hand equally as often.

Re: Texas Hold'em Hand Strength, Visualized

#46

Post by mod »

yannyu wrote: post #23
mod wrote: post #12

Looks like you used heads up hand strengths, and then full-table hand frequencies, and computed weighted hand strenghts based on that--which is a mistake, of course.

I'd love to do this with play-raise-fold frequencies by number of people at table. Are there relatively untainted public poker hand datasets? WSOP tournament data maybe?

You can buy huge databases from other players, yes. They're full data sets, not "tainted," and have far more hands than have ever been played in the WSOP.

It's considered bad form in the poker world, and generally against site TOS, if you're a player using the data to have a read on a player before you've ever played him.

If you're just doing research, nobody cares at all. They might even give you the datasets, if they actually believe you. Or perhaps if you let them anonymize them?

Re: Texas Hold'em Hand Strength, Visualized

#47

Post by cleatsupkeep »

GCA10 wrote: post #33
davis_m wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AQ vs KK is no different than A10 or AJ vs KK. Even middling Aces like A7 or A8 aren't much worse off because of the lost straight possibilities due to two K's being taken. I haven't looked at the numbers but I would bet that A2-A5 are better off against KK than AQ.

The numbers have arrived -- thanks to www.sliceeq.com -- and your hunch is right. After 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, Slice declares that winning odds are as follows KK (70.9%) vs AQsuited or AQoffsuit (29.1%) KK (69.2%) vs A5suited or A5offsuit (30.8%) The reason why the seemingly inferior hand of A5 does better is that it has about a 4.6% chance of making a straight. (Usually A2345, but conceivably something els…

Additionally, if AQ has made a straight with a K, KK now has a redraw to a full house. If the flop was KJT, KK still has a 34% chance to win the hand.

Re: Texas Hold'em Hand Strength, Visualized

#48

Post by rjett »

encoderer wrote: post #37

I don't mean to be OT, but does anybody play online anymore? I paid my (cheap) rent in college playing on FullTilt and PokerStars, but the (unreasonable) gov't crackdown seems to have put an end to online play. Or is there a secret I'm not in on?

bovada... not nearly as many players as there used to be when it operated as bodog, but it'll still scratch your itch.

Re: Texas Hold'em Hand Strength, Visualized

#49

Post by pcthrowaway »

encoderer wrote: post #37

I don't mean to be OT, but does anybody play online anymore? I paid my (cheap) rent in college playing on FullTilt and PokerStars, but the (unreasonable) gov't crackdown seems to have put an end to online play. Or is there a secret I'm not in on?

Seals With Clubs. Deposit bitcoin. Play with bitcoin. Withdraw bitcoin. Probably not legal in the U.S. but it's a great site (and they don't check your IP origin afaik, though you could probably get in with TOR or a proxy anyway).
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