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U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

scientificamerican.com

31–40 of 105 posts

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#31

No scholars predicted the global warming hiatus was coming: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_hiatus Is there reason to believe that rainfall predictions will be more accurate?

Well, this time they've performed controlled experiments, and tied the models to lab-reproducible results, and used validation periods longer than their tuning periods, and the model range includes extreme rainfall points from the fossil record... Oh, wait. Never mind.

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#32
post #2

Optimizing crop outputs for higher-than-average temperatures and minimal rain is very important. Agricultural innovation over the next 10-20 years is going to be fast-paced; it'll have to be, to keep up with local climate changes. I work in weather prediction and hope to improve weather forecasts for agribusiness. But what if our forecast ends up just being "Hot; no rain.". What will happen, where will the water come…

My naive brain can't compute how drought and global warming go together. If we assume that water is trapped within the atmosphere and can't drift off into space, then won't global warming just heat up the oceans, causing more precipitation? It seems like global warming is the cure for drought not the cause? It's like a giant desalination system for free.

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#33
post #2

Optimizing crop outputs for higher-than-average temperatures and minimal rain is very important. Agricultural innovation over the next 10-20 years is going to be fast-paced; it'll have to be, to keep up with local climate changes. I work in weather prediction and hope to improve weather forecasts for agribusiness. But what if our forecast ends up just being "Hot; no rain.". What will happen, where will the water come…

I still like Gregory Benford's space umbrella. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_sunshade The guy is not a dilettante, he's professor of Physics and Astronomy at UC Irvine. It would give us basically unlimited control over solar input (depending on how big you make it). It would be a massive project that would require global cooperation, which is again good - especially in the current geo-political... um... "climate…

The issue with large-effect, untested ideas like this one is that while it might seem like an appropriate solution for this specific problem, it might carry enormous side-effects that we aren't really aware of yet (and that may be difficult to reverse).

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#34
post #32
post #2

Optimizing crop outputs for higher-than-average temperatures and minimal rain is very important. Agricultural innovation over the next 10-20 years is going to be fast-paced; it'll have to be, to keep up with local climate changes. I work in weather prediction and hope to improve weather forecasts for agribusiness. But what if our forecast ends up just being "Hot; no rain.". What will happen, where will the water come…

My naive brain can't compute how drought and global warming go together. If we assume that water is trapped within the atmosphere and can't drift off into space, then won't global warming just heat up the oceans, causing more precipitation? It seems like global warming is the cure for drought not the cause? It's like a giant desalination system for free.

It changes where the rain happens, and all our infrastructure is set up to take advantage of local rain that based on current weather patterns. If the system changes such that 90% of the rain is falling somewhere in the middle of the Pacific ocean, that's not very useful to us.

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#35

No scholars predicted the global warming hiatus was coming: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_hiatus Is there reason to believe that rainfall predictions will be more accurate?

From that very link:

> "Globally averaged surface temperature has slowed down. I wouldn’t say it's paused. It depends on the datasets you look at. If you look at datasets that include the Arctic, it is clear that global temperatures are still increasing," said Tim Palmer, a co-author of the report and a professor at University of Oxford.

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#39
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over a 50-100 year timeline, I envision us using cheap renewable energy to replenish massive aquifers. While it seems far fetched, the US has the strategic oil reserve for times of need. Why would we ever consider water less strategic than fuel?

The US and Canada share the largest bodies of fresh water in the world (the Great Lakes). That's a pretty strategic reserve.

It's also the case that if you have the excess energy to generate fresh water to store for later you probably have less need to store energy and water for later.

I hope it doesn't particularly need to happen, but it will be interesting to see the water rights for the Great Lakes play out over time. Current law is pretty solid about not removing water from the watershed:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Lakes_Compact

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#40
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over a 50-100 year timeline, I envision us using cheap renewable energy to replenish massive aquifers. While it seems far fetched, the US has the strategic oil reserve for times of need. Why would we ever consider water less strategic than fuel?

The US and Canada share the largest bodies of fresh water in the world (the Great Lakes). That's a pretty strategic reserve.

The Ogallala aquifer is approximately equal in water storage capacity to Lake Huron, but has 7 times more area and more arable surface land is within 500 m from it.

The downside is that it cannot be used to transport goods using container ships.

But it is being depleted more than six times as fast as it is being recharged. If anything qualifies as a strategic water reserve, that's it right there. What else would you call a gigantic underground lake underlying a huge number of farms that can all tap into it directly?

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