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U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

scientificamerican.com

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Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#21

Post by Florin_Andrei »

cryptoz wrote: post #2

Optimizing crop outputs for higher-than-average temperatures and minimal rain is very important. Agricultural innovation over the next 10-20 years is going to be fast-paced; it'll have to be, to keep up with local climate changes. I work in weather prediction and hope to improve weather forecasts for agribusiness. But what if our forecast ends up just being "Hot; no rain.". What will happen, where will the water come…

I still like Gregory Benford's space umbrella.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_sunshade

The guy is not a dilettante, he's professor of Physics and Astronomy at UC Irvine.

It would give us basically unlimited control over solar input (depending on how big you make it). It would be a massive project that would require global cooperation, which is again good - especially in the current geo-political... um... "climate".

Also, massive undertakings such as this have a way of galvanizing creativity and progress across the whole society.

Or maybe it's my personal bias towards giant, Pacific Rim style, howling-metal projects. Big problem, big solution. Don't waste your time putting around in the mud.

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#22

Post by kevin_thibedeau »

golergka wrote: post #19
Retric wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US produces several times more food than we need. A single acre can easily produce enough food for a small family and we have 408 million acres under cultivation. Corn is something of a super star at 8,250 lb. of corn per acre. However, we end up feeding most of this to animals which drastically reduces overall efficiency. So, sure we are going to spend a lot of effort maximizing food production. But a 50% drop i…

So, essentially, meat will get pricier and people will switch to eating more vegetables? Nothing to be cheerful about, but at least it sounds better than scenarios I thought about right after reading the article.

There are a lot of industrial applications for agricultural products. Loss of arable land will put a pinch on those supply chains and increase costs of non-food manufactured goods.

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#23

Post by jessaustin »

cryptoz wrote: post #2

Optimizing crop outputs for higher-than-average temperatures and minimal rain is very important. Agricultural innovation over the next 10-20 years is going to be fast-paced; it'll have to be, to keep up with local climate changes. I work in weather prediction and hope to improve weather forecasts for agribusiness. But what if our forecast ends up just being "Hot; no rain.". What will happen, where will the water come…

If less rain means that the relative deserts of California and Arizona can't be irrigated/subsidized as heavily, the resulting price increases will shift agricultural production back to more natural locations in the Midwest. There was once a dairy industry here, for one thing. We couldn't compete with the desert alfalfa of the Salt River Valley, but then again maybe their advantage wasn't an environmentally sustainable one. It requires a certain perspective to bemoan the fact that deserts aren't great places for agriculture.

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#24

Post by crygin »

jessaustin wrote: post #23
cryptoz wrote: post #2

Optimizing crop outputs for higher-than-average temperatures and minimal rain is very important. Agricultural innovation over the next 10-20 years is going to be fast-paced; it'll have to be, to keep up with local climate changes. I work in weather prediction and hope to improve weather forecasts for agribusiness. But what if our forecast ends up just being "Hot; no rain.". What will happen, where will the water come…

If less rain means that the relative deserts of California and Arizona can't be irrigated/subsidized as heavily, the resulting price increases will shift agricultural production back to more natural locations in the Midwest. There was once a dairy industry here, for one thing. We couldn't compete with the desert alfalfa of the Salt River Valley, but then again maybe their advantage wasn't an environmentally sustainab…

The current consensus is that the drought will extend to the Great Plains. See for example this paper (recently discussed at the AAAS meeting): http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/1/e1400082

This is not a possible shift to an environment with a recent (human-timescale) analogue. If it comes to pass, we will not be able to farm or live in the same places or at the same volumes as we are currently capable of.

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#25

Post by zrail »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #11
Retric wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was what was happening in during the dust bowl. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dust_Bowl In the end we solved the problem mostly though trees (wind breaks) and a lot of geologic water. But long term some large scale irrigation can also solve the problem. PS: There are also farming methods that mitigate the issue while using far less water ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dryland_farming ), but they are still not nea…

Over a 50-100 year timeline, I envision us using cheap renewable energy to replenish massive aquifers. While it seems far fetched, the US has the strategic oil reserve for times of need. Why would we ever consider water less strategic than fuel?

The US and Canada share the largest bodies of fresh water in the world (the Great Lakes). That's a pretty strategic reserve.

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#26

Post by SCAQTony »

I think the most easiest solution to this problem with the existing technology we have is to start building water collection reservoirs in the surrounding mountains of California and the Colorado rockies too. Then Desalination plants in and around the Gulf of Mexico and pipelines to move water where needed.

This is an opportunity to employ both blue & white collar workers as well as tech professionals as well and should be considered.

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#27

Post by korethr »

Florin_Andrei wrote: post #21
cryptoz wrote: post #2

Optimizing crop outputs for higher-than-average temperatures and minimal rain is very important. Agricultural innovation over the next 10-20 years is going to be fast-paced; it'll have to be, to keep up with local climate changes. I work in weather prediction and hope to improve weather forecasts for agribusiness. But what if our forecast ends up just being "Hot; no rain.". What will happen, where will the water come…

I still like Gregory Benford's space umbrella. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_sunshade The guy is not a dilettante, he's professor of Physics and Astronomy at UC Irvine. It would give us basically unlimited control over solar input (depending on how big you make it). It would be a massive project that would require global cooperation, which is again good - especially in the current geo-political... um... "climate…

It would be really cool if such a device could also be used for harvesting solar power. Getting the power back down to earth would be tricky, though.

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#28

Post by Daishiman »

golergka wrote: post #19
Retric wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US produces several times more food than we need. A single acre can easily produce enough food for a small family and we have 408 million acres under cultivation. Corn is something of a super star at 8,250 lb. of corn per acre. However, we end up feeding most of this to animals which drastically reduces overall efficiency. So, sure we are going to spend a lot of effort maximizing food production. But a 50% drop i…

So, essentially, meat will get pricier and people will switch to eating more vegetables? Nothing to be cheerful about, but at least it sounds better than scenarios I thought about right after reading the article.

Current meat consumption is unsustainable anyway; it wasn't going to last.

Re: U.S. Droughts Predicted to Be the Worst in 1,000 Years

#30

Post by Daishiman »

Shivetya wrote: post #10
cryptoz wrote: post #2

Optimizing crop outputs for higher-than-average temperatures and minimal rain is very important. Agricultural innovation over the next 10-20 years is going to be fast-paced; it'll have to be, to keep up with local climate changes. I work in weather prediction and hope to improve weather forecasts for agribusiness. But what if our forecast ends up just being "Hot; no rain.". What will happen, where will the water come…

this is likely not a CO2 issue. If anything everything grows better in a higher CO2 environment, let alone a warmer one. We can see this from when it happened before. Trying to go through the NA Drought Atlas, curious if there are other geological events they can tie some of the really severe past droughts too. If anything their document simply states that severe droughts are a matter of record and its possible that…

> If anything everything grows better in a higher CO2 environment

No. Life adapts to the atmospheric levels of CO2; changes in atmospheric composition are qualitative and lead to differences in fundamental chemical processes.

> let alone a warmer one.

No, it depends on the plant. Plants evaporate water to control internal temperature, and changes in climate will alter no just the exterior temperature but levels of soil moisture, which changes the types of flora that can inhabit an area substantially.

Extreme weather events happen all the time, but their increase in probability means that there is now a much greater variance in global food output. And considering that food production is extremely controller versus the natural mechanisms organisms generally have available, it leads to the acceleration of the current mass extinction event we're living in.

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