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blog.samaltman.com

241–250 of 317 posts

Re: China

#241
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not an exact comparison... For instance - if I bought a house in the 1990s for 200K and it's now worth a million dollars, it isn't stealing $800K from anywhere. That's new wealth that I have that I can also put to work. (Even if I don't take a mortgage out on the house, I can invest more of my other money more aggressively, if I'm paying less mortgage, or know that I have a high value asset in my home) I think i…

It's not "stealing" 800k. That would be a bit too strong. But the problem is that your 800k comes via the fact that newer entrants to the market must now take out monster mortgages. It's not wealth created, but a draw on future wealth and an increase in the interest payments of younger workers. It's sort of a generationally regressive tax. I personally suspect that policies that protect and encourage RE hyperinflatio…

Fair enough.

Over the long term, rent usually fixes to a certain % of "All in" housing costs. (Usually close to mortgage payments plus upkeep plus condo fees)

The difference is that rent is a short term costs, so for startups they're not eating the 30 year home ownership cost, just the monthly rental differences.

It is a generationally regressive tax only to the extent that parents die with no assets left. If they die with positive assets, then the value of their homes gets handed to their kids.

The CA system is painful for other reasons. At the outset, it's a tax by people with good credit on people with bad. (You can't get the tax benefits of home ownership unless you have good credit) The bigger issue is the nature of the taxation... Because tax increases on houses can't rise as fast as the homes themselves, new homeowners pay a penalty relative to the value of the house. (If you and I both both buy homes in the same neighborhood. You paid 500K 3 years ago, and I pay 1mm today, my tax burden will be almost double yours)

Re: China

#242
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I call real estate the "evil sponge." As a region becomes more affluent, the price of real estate appreciates at least in step with this. Due to the leveraged debt financing of RE, the reality is often that price appreciation is a multiple of wage appreciation. This takes pretty much all the surplus capital in a region -- among everyone but the rich -- and locks it up in an inert asset. Think of it this way: a starte…

> I call real estate the "evil sponge." There is a reason that successful, fast-developing nations such as Singapore have enacted tight controls over the ability of a zero-value-add rentier class to extract all the value from a growing economy.

Have you seen Singapore real estate prices lately? The same 2-br condo (Parc Vista @ Boon Lay, never a particularl desirable location to begin with) I used to rent for $1000/mo back in ~2005 is going for ~$3500/mo now, the building hasn't gotten any newer in the meantime, and this is actually a bit cheaper than it was two years ago.

Re: China

#243
Some perspective:

How the US dollar became so important: http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2014/07/16/331743569/episode-...

US GDP per capita vs China's GDP: http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&m...

In a nutshell, the cost of an iPhone is ~5% of China's GPD per capita, but will continue to shrink as they grow.

Re: China

#244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Cheating among Chinese students is pandemic." Care to give some reference and more clarification (Chinese students where? in US? China?) to back this up? Sounds similar to me to the same narrative as "Asians get good scores because they cheat." I'm appalled when I first heard about this, do people really believe that? or is it just an easy excuse for "non-asians-not-getting-good-scores", to feel good about themselve…

So, for example, http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/28/world/asia/china-exam-cheats/ Note that this particular exam was taken by 25,000 people, so that's almost ten percent.

Thanks for the reference, at least you cared to search and show it! 10% of 25,000 for that particular exam does sound a lot, and that's probably why it made national news in the first place. Does it mean 10% of all Chinese students (in China) cheat? Is it a proof that "Cheating among Chinese students is pandemic."? Definitely Not. I can find way more examples where 0% of Chinese students cheat in national level exams (actually, I probably can't, because "nobody cheated in the exam" won't make the news). Does that mean "Chinese students never cheat."? Of course not either. I'm not trying to be the PC police here, but I'm just baffled that a sweeping claim like that got used as the basis of OP's thesis and everybody seems to be agreeing with it. I thought HN's audience could do better than that...

Re: China

#245
A few things missing here, posed as a question:

Why should we want the US to be the largest (or one of the largest) economies in the world and/or maintain its position as a global superpower?

Maybe I’m missing something , but I didn’t see SA give a good and/or specific reason here (he makes some arguments about not wanting to decline, which I think makes sense but that would be true for really any economic organization...).

Of course I think there are a number of good reasons why it is good for the US to be the largest economy in the world, and for brevity I’d probably put them into two basic buckets:

A. some self-interested reasons: I’d rather be part of a nation-state that has more control over the global political economy than less control so that it is easier for me to have control over my own economic situation, I’d rather be part of a nation-state that is prosperous and can maintain that prosperity so that it is easier for me to maintain my own prosperity.

B. some (allegedly) selfless reasons: I’d like the global superpower to at least maintain some semblance of respect for / commitment to human rights, rule of law, democracy, freedom of speech/religion, a market economy and all that good old american pie stuff (I’m being snarky but I really do value those things) - don’t get me wrong, I understand there’s a lot of hypocrisy/inconsistency with how the USA actually operates, but this is the “USA-is-not-the-best-but-better-than-the-alternatives” argument, which I really do believe.

There’s a good argument that all the “human rights / rule of law / freedom of speech” stuff is just constructed-BS and that its worth trading off for high levels of growth (I’m Korean, and many Koreans see the military dictatorship after the Korean war as net positive since it allowed Korea to grow rapidly, in spite of major human rights abuses etc. which I don’t entirely disagree with), but I guess at the end of the day I’m old-fashioned enough to say that I value those things in and of themselves and that I wish them upon pretty much everyone that exists or has existed or will exist.

That all being said, my Chinese counterpart (or really anyone from any other country) can pretty much say the same thing as (A) and I can’t really give them a good reason to say that for some reason I (and the USA) deserve this position more than she and China (or anyone else and any other country in the world) does.

Therefore, when I say that I think it’s good for the USA to be the most powerful nation I have to (1) admit that it’s at least partially (if not more) motivated by A than B, in which case my position is not really any more valid than my Chinese counterparts and (2) hope it’s at least partially motivated by B, because then it’s actually a position that I believe(hope?) will actually benefit everyone involved. This is of course all predicated on my moral beliefs that don’t allow me to say that my self-interest is always paramount, which I know many people just disagree with flat-out, which is fair - I pretty much am the same way, though I really do try (and most fail) to be another way, for reasons something like this: http://moreintelligentlife.com/story/david-foster-wallace-in...

Re: China

#246

A few things missing here, posed as a question: Why should we want the US to be the largest (or one of the largest) economies in the world and/or maintain its position as a global superpower? Maybe I’m missing something , but I didn’t see SA give a good and/or specific reason here (he makes some arguments about not wanting to decline, which I think makes sense but that would be true for really any economic organizati…

One additional clarification: I'd say that I think continued growth is super important, I'm just not sure you need to be the biggest - see the UK, see Singapore, see South Korea, see Canada (all US allies, to be fair haha).

Re: China

#247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're going to have to backup that claim that the majority of people that graduate from college are functionally illiterate. I call bullshit on that being true. The American food system is one of the safest and most regulated on earth. You may disagree with some of its practices, but that does not make it unregulated nor unsafe. The claim that America has a complete lack of food safety regulations is laughable, you…

http://www.alexkrupp.com/Citevault.html#literacy

Talk about fraud. The site mentions "proficient" in quotes trying to make that sound like a low level of performance when in fact it is the highest rating on the assessment (2 spots higher than "Basic")!

I'm guessing the rest of your bullet points are a stretch as well (at least they seem like stretches and now we know you cite bogus sources).

Re: China

#248
post #233

I disagree with a lot of this. The Chinese value the appearance of working hard, not actual hard work. Cheating among Chinese students is pandemic. Chinese companies regularly publish misleading or outright fraudulent earning statements and quarterly reports. While the Chinese government seems to be taking steps to reverse these trends, it will take a long time to undo their culture of corruption. Contrast this with…

As someone who spent more than half of his life in China, I'd have to agree with you, at least from an anecdotal perspective. Trust is hard to build in China. A lot of people care about making money but people scarcely think about creating value for the society. Wealth is synonymous with consumption. The worst part I think, is the 1) social stability is valued over social mobility 2) individuality is shunned rather t…

Additionally, my impression is that "trust" vehicles like contracts don't hold the same weight that they do in places like the US. They get broken and tossed aside all the time and the legal recourse you can have is minimal.

Re: China

#249
I'm wondering how important it is to be the economical super-power?

This reminds me Steven Colbert interviewing Thomas Piketty. Colbert jokes about the short work weeks and two-months vacations in France. Piketty's reply: "in Europe, many people believe the purpose of civilization is to work less, have more vacation, take care of your friends and family. But you can make a different choice and that's fine". France is still the 6th economic power.

Re: China

#250
There are a lot of great issues discussed here, and I'm going to say that most of it is valid and on point.

After living and working in SF, I moved to china 6 months ago and have come to understand that Chinese compared to US simply have hugely divergent values. And they work hard. From a very young age, they are conditioned to do so; and with 1.4 Billion people competing, there's no other option.

The US is still, and should continue to remain the focal point of innovation. I find China to be so far behind in this area, I don't think there is any hope of catching anytime soon.

I say this because, much of the money in China is grounded in old and dying business principles. The new generation, those in the country's "top" business schools, are being taught dated ideas which don't promote innovation at all.

I do agree though, China will continue to grow and the West will find a way to coexist. But I'm still not trading my USD for RMB just yet.

Edit: typos

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