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China

blog.samaltman.com

221–230 of 317 posts

Re: China

#221
It seems to be a fundamental assumption of most economy pieces out there that growth is good, stagnation is bad, and we should strive for ever more growth.

But how much growth can we actual sustain with the limited resources we have on earth? When is it time to stop?

Are there better things to optimize for? Happiness, maybe? Peace? Does growth make people happy and countries peaceful? Maybe we could achieve something good by re-distributing wealth, instead of trying to create and more and more.

Re: China

#222

I disagree with a lot of this. The Chinese value the appearance of working hard, not actual hard work. Cheating among Chinese students is pandemic. Chinese companies regularly publish misleading or outright fraudulent earning statements and quarterly reports. While the Chinese government seems to be taking steps to reverse these trends, it will take a long time to undo their culture of corruption. Contrast this with…

In addition this whole thing is anchored on continued growth. At some point there isn't going to be any growth left, specially as pop. growth rates decline and the third world begins toward economic equilibrium. You can't grow forever, at a global scale. At some point, thirty or forty years from now the growth we depend on for economic viability (as a society) is not going to be there. A new model will have to emerge. The so called neo liberal economic system depends on growth... But its not going to be there forever, as Japan has learnt.

Re: China

#223
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For good reason. It is both unhealthy and inefficient to work massive amounts of hours. There are multiple studies that show that overall productivity increases when you don't work over 40 hours a week.

The studies I've seen show productivity falling at 40 hours and dropping off a cliff at 50 for most activities. I don't think the blame for the workaholic culture lies primarily with VCs, though some do encourage this. I think it's mostly a part of the cult of male ego. "I worked 70 hours last week! How many did you work? 50? Wuss! I'm so much more hard-core than you!" People also lie about how many hours they worked…

> In reality they work maybe 20-40 and then do things like... uhh... hang around in here... for the other 20-40

So much this.

There's just a huge level of inefficiency with working ridiculous hours on a regular basis. Just because you're engaged in the physical act of coding/designing/writing/etc. does not mean you are producing anything of value. In reality you'll probably do something that needs to be fixed a week or two down the road.

I've watched people who work till 9pm everyday. After 5:30 or 6 they mostly just browse the internet and fiddle around. In reality they should probably work from 8 or 9 - 5 or 6 and take a healthy 3 to 4 hour break and go home. Then after their evening has settled down get back into working on something for another hour or two at the leisure of their own home. This is much more productive than just slugging it out at the office with no work life balance at all.

Re: China

#224

I disagree with a lot of this. The Chinese value the appearance of working hard, not actual hard work. Cheating among Chinese students is pandemic. Chinese companies regularly publish misleading or outright fraudulent earning statements and quarterly reports. While the Chinese government seems to be taking steps to reverse these trends, it will take a long time to undo their culture of corruption. Contrast this with…

There's a billion people! You can't make any generalizations about "hard work". It's just overly broad stereotyping at that point. Do Uighurs value hard work? Tibetans? Subsistence farmers? City-dwellers? I don't really know what people mean when they say that the Chinese "value hard work". Which Chinese?

China is quite homogenous ethnically, 90+% Han! You can of course generalize and stereotype, you'll just have many more chances of being wrong.

Re: China

#225
post #155
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China's growth has long since been an organism that feeds on the back of the gorilla of US growth. If the US economy would hit a major recession, China would come crashing down with it. On the other hand, if the Chinese economy would have a major collapse, the US would suffer, but still be able to re-route core-value manufacturing processes to new countries (or back home). I agree with your cheating note, many of the…

I think the typical rhetoric of "China is bad because it steals innovation!" is usually misplaced. From China's perspective, there is nothing wrong with "stealing innovation," as this model has helped grow China's economy and lift millions out of poverty over the past few decades. The diffusion of information does not produce the same "value" as the production of information itself, but from China's perspective this…

To coin a proverb, "There is nothing wrong with stealing innovation until you steal the life from that which creates it."

China, culturally, does not innovate or foster the mindset of problem solving or collaboration that is visible in highly innovative - honestly innovative - environments. That's why, anecdotally speaking, several major science journals do not accept papers from Chinese higher education facilities, due to having to deal with far too many retractions. I'm only a bystander to this issue, but I know it's real and will take generations to correct.

Re: China

#226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Contrast this with the American culture of honesty; fraud and cheating are national scandals, not the norm. Fraud is basically the biggest national industry in the U.S. Just look at: - The 30% of all medical spending that is wasted. - The rise of for-profit colleges with super low graduation rates and even worse employment prospects. Same with law schools. - The fact that the majority of people who graduate high sc…

> Just look at: I'd like to add: - how many people are in prisons (for imho minor offences) - screwed up (software) patent system - amount of money wasted on NSA - stale two party government - homeland security paranoia

> - stale two party government

Stale one-party government?

Re: China

#227

I disagree with a lot of this. The Chinese value the appearance of working hard, not actual hard work. Cheating among Chinese students is pandemic. Chinese companies regularly publish misleading or outright fraudulent earning statements and quarterly reports. While the Chinese government seems to be taking steps to reverse these trends, it will take a long time to undo their culture of corruption. Contrast this with…

"Cheating among Chinese students is pandemic." Care to give some reference and more clarification (Chinese students where? in US? China?) to back this up? Sounds similar to me to the same narrative as "Asians get good scores because they cheat." I'm appalled when I first heard about this, do people really believe that? or is it just an easy excuse for "non-asians-not-getting-good-scores", to feel good about themselves?

[Edit] I'm not questioning your comment about Chinese companys' practice, just feeling that sentence about "those cheating Chinese students" out of place.

[Edit] Interesting, just got my 1st downvote on HN, ever. Scratching my head now....what's the downvote for? Asking the OP to back up his own claim is offending or what?

Re: China

#228
> The most important story of 2014 that most people ignored was the Chinese economy overtaking the US economy. (This is using the purchasing power parity metric, which incorporates differences in the price of goods, but the Chinese economy will overtake on other metrics soon enough.)

It is an important story, but I think it was largely ignored in the U.S. because it is essentially a domestic Chinese story. PPP GDP equivalence is a major step on the path of bringing Chinese living standards up to those in the U.S. and Europe. That is an achievement that will be good for the world, but it will really great for China.

If you want to compare China and U.S. as players on the global stage, then I think in most cases one will get a clearer picture of relative strength by sticking with nominal GDP. China's nominal GDP is bit more than half the U.S. GDP. It helps understand why the U.S. has the dominant currency, dominant military, etc.

China has grown its economy tremendously by taking the world's IP (by contract or theft) and building goods to export. That's how the U.S. caught up to Europe 150 years ago, so unlike other posters I don't think it's a terrible thing.

But it is true that China, to become a true economic superpower, must start creating innovative Chinese goods that other Chinese will buy, and which they can export. So Americans aren't just buying Apple phones that are made in China, but are buying Chinese products, the way they buy Japanese cameras or German cars.

That could be difficult to achieve, because the Chinese government does not permit free exchanges of ideas and views...which can make it hard to innovate. By its very nature, innovation makes people uncomfortable, and China's leaders do not currently permit things that make people too uncomfortable.

Re: China

#229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a billion people! You can't make any generalizations about "hard work". It's just overly broad stereotyping at that point. Do Uighurs value hard work? Tibetans? Subsistence farmers? City-dwellers? I don't really know what people mean when they say that the Chinese "value hard work". Which Chinese?

Indeed. People forget that China has twice the population of United States and European Union combined . It's often silly to treat them all as one uniform group.

A group's uniformity has nothing to do with its size.

Re: China

#230
I wish Sam Altman wouldn't talk so authoritatively in his essays. He comes off as an obnoxious, arrogant ass.

He sold Loopt and won PG's praise, but it doesn't follow that he has definitive answers the topics he writes about.

The simpler explanation is that he won PG's praise because he is a master imitator. He writes very much like PG, and I think PG saw a lot of himself in Sam, so he promoted him to YC president or whatever he is.

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