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To Protect His Son, a Father Asks School to Bar Unvaccinated Children

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Re: To Protect His Son, a Father Asks School to Bar Unvaccinated Children

#101

Post by pzxc »

dinkumthinkum wrote: post #80
pzxc wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But how do you quantify it? How much harm is caused to herd immunity by 1 more child not getting vaccinated? What is the expected value of that -- the probability that the disease for which the vaccine is available actually occurs in such a way that the voluntarily-nonvaccinated person contracts it and then passes it on to someone who is involuntarily nonvaccinated? How does the expected value of that harm (probabili…

Fortunately we have these things called "science" and "math" and we have no trouble quantifying these things. Or are you suggesting that there is literally only ONE child in the entire world that is not vaccinated? I'm not sure this is making any sense, to be honest. We have a lot data about times when vaccines did not exist. We have a lot of data about what happened after there was widespread vaccinations. We also h…

Your tone is sarcastic, but I'll try to explain again.

I'm not suggesting only one child in the world is unvaccinated, that would be absurd.

I'm suggesting that if the unvaccinated child never contracts the disease, then there's no harm, right? And if the unvaccinated kid gets it, but doesn't pass it to anybody, no harm no foul again. (To others, that is, which is what we're really discussing as far as first amendment limits right? My fist-throwing rights ends just before your nose)

So what I'm saying is, it's difficult to quantify the expected value of real-life situations because there are so many variables and direct and indirect effects, and because of that difficulty it's easy for many people to ignore relative probability altogether and go with their gut reaction, and that's a mistake, because the relative probability of harm coming from a person choosing not to vaccinate their child is a relatively rare event... and so in light of other very rare events, that we nevertheless do not have much of a problem with (like allowing families with children to have wood fireplaces or trampolines or swimming pools), then maybe, just MAYBE, parents who don't vaccinate are not really that harmful and it's not worth overriding individual choice, even though we all agree that the smart choice is to vaccinate.

Any better?

I'd love you see you quantify the relative probability of all those events with your "math" though, since you say it's so easy. :)

Re: To Protect His Son, a Father Asks School to Bar Unvaccinated Children

#102

Post by pstuart »

spdustin wrote: post #87
pstuart wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I prefer facts and reason. When those don't work, what's left that doesn't involve force?

Law, and injunctive measures.

Both of those are meaningless without force to back them up.

Re: To Protect His Son, a Father Asks School to Bar Unvaccinated Children

#104

Post by nl »

pzxc wrote: post #55
bequanna wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, but I think you're missing the point here. It would be OK if you were to refuse vaccinations and only you had to bear the costs of that decision: You get sick, you die, the end. That is not the case here. There are, potentially, huge external costs to your decision. You may get sick and infect others with poor immune systems. Other people might die. I think a good comparison here would be parents who expose their…

But how do you quantify it? How much harm is caused to herd immunity by 1 more child not getting vaccinated? What is the expected value of that -- the probability that the disease for which the vaccine is available actually occurs in such a way that the voluntarily-nonvaccinated person contracts it and then passes it on to someone who is involuntarily nonvaccinated? How does the expected value of that harm (probabili…

Playing devils advocate is all very well, but your questions have pretty easy answers. Unfortunately they involve math, and so people tend to tune out.

But how do you quantify it? How much harm is caused to herd immunity by 1 more child not getting vaccinated?

Herd immunity is a threshold. For measles (which is highly contagious) it is generally accepted to be between 82% and 94%[1].

What is the expected value of that -- the probability that the disease for which the vaccine is available actually occurs in such a way that the voluntarily-nonvaccinated person contracts it and then passes it on to someone who is involuntarily nonvaccinated?

In a non-vaccinated population, a single case of measles can be expected to infect 12 to 18 people[2].

In the recent Disneyland incident, 3 people were vaccinated and caught it (because the vaccine is only 97% effective - less if you have only received the first dose). 2 children who were infected were too young to receive the vaccine[3][4].

32 people were infected in total.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

[3] http://www.wired.com/2015/01/vaccinated-people-get-measles-d...

[4] http://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/disneyland-mea...

Re: To Protect His Son, a Father Asks School to Bar Unvaccinated Children

#105

Post by bequanna »

pzxc wrote: post #55
bequanna wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, but I think you're missing the point here. It would be OK if you were to refuse vaccinations and only you had to bear the costs of that decision: You get sick, you die, the end. That is not the case here. There are, potentially, huge external costs to your decision. You may get sick and infect others with poor immune systems. Other people might die. I think a good comparison here would be parents who expose their…

But how do you quantify it? How much harm is caused to herd immunity by 1 more child not getting vaccinated? What is the expected value of that -- the probability that the disease for which the vaccine is available actually occurs in such a way that the voluntarily-nonvaccinated person contracts it and then passes it on to someone who is involuntarily nonvaccinated? How does the expected value of that harm (probabili…

I understand what you're saying, and I get that you're playing devil's advocate here.

I'm not saying 'screw vaccination deniers', I think we should have this conversation.

My position is simply that your rights end where mine begin.

This isn't like teaching alternatives to evolution in public school. If you don't want to believe in evolution, it irks me, but that doesn't really hurt me.

People can die when others refuse vaccination for bogus reasons. Even if it isn't readily quantifiable, I think many would agree with that statement.

If enough people start refusing vaccinations, it is reasonable to expect that a LOT of people could get very sick and many could die.

>What about the harm from wood fireplaces?

There are regulations in populated areas. The Bay Area has 'Spare the Air' laws

>What about swimming pools and trampoline and the probability of injury or death from both?

There are laws requiring fences around pools. And home insurance rates skyrocket when either of those is present.

Re: To Protect His Son, a Father Asks School to Bar Unvaccinated Children

#106

Post by moultano »

pzxc wrote: post #101
dinkumthinkum wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fortunately we have these things called "science" and "math" and we have no trouble quantifying these things. Or are you suggesting that there is literally only ONE child in the entire world that is not vaccinated? I'm not sure this is making any sense, to be honest. We have a lot data about times when vaccines did not exist. We have a lot of data about what happened after there was widespread vaccinations. We also h…

Your tone is sarcastic, but I'll try to explain again. I'm not suggesting only one child in the world is unvaccinated, that would be absurd. I'm suggesting that if the unvaccinated child never contracts the disease, then there's no harm, right? And if the unvaccinated kid gets it, but doesn't pass it to anybody, no harm no foul again. (To others, that is, which is what we're really discussing as far as first amendmen…

We can base it on the consequences. If someone dies from an outbreak, and an unvaccinated person is found to be a vector, they are guilty of involuntary manslaughter. Hopefully the prospect of that is enough of an incentive.

Re: To Protect His Son, a Father Asks School to Bar Unvaccinated Children

#107

Post by FeeTinesAMady »

dinkumthinkum wrote: post #65
Alex3917 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems odd to use polio as the example of a vaccine success story, while leaving out the recent resurgence of polio that's been caused by Obama using vaccines as part of his secret assassination program. Also not mentioned, the fact that government vaccination programs in Africa are thought to be one of the key elements behind HIV becoming a global epidemic. Or the fact that vaccine makers are frequently indemnifie…

This is really hard to take. I think you should seek medical attention and I mean that in the most respectful way possible. Do you not find the fact that you "know" about this alleged "secret assassination program" even partially contradictory?

You tell him he should seek medical attention because he has an opinion you disagree with and you think that's respectful?

Re: To Protect His Son, a Father Asks School to Bar Unvaccinated Children

#108

Post by chrismcb »

nl wrote: post #104
pzxc wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But how do you quantify it? How much harm is caused to herd immunity by 1 more child not getting vaccinated? What is the expected value of that -- the probability that the disease for which the vaccine is available actually occurs in such a way that the voluntarily-nonvaccinated person contracts it and then passes it on to someone who is involuntarily nonvaccinated? How does the expected value of that harm (probabili…

Playing devils advocate is all very well, but your questions have pretty easy answers. Unfortunately they involve math, and so people tend to tune out. But how do you quantify it? How much harm is caused to herd immunity by 1 more child not getting vaccinated? Herd immunity is a threshold. For measles (which is highly contagious) it is generally accepted to be between 82% and 94%[1]. What is the expected value of tha…

Maybe I'm doing the math wrong, but if herd immunity threshold is 82 to 94% then isn't it ok that 7% of the children aren't immunized?

Re: To Protect His Son, a Father Asks School to Bar Unvaccinated Children

#109

Post by chrismcb »

chrisau wrote: post #42

One thing confuses me. Why are parents of vaccinated kids so terrified of unvaccinated kids?? Does vaccination work or not? If my kids are vaccinated, doesn't that mean they won't catch the disease if they encounter it? Or, at the worst, get a mild dose. If vaccination works, why do we care that a small minority aren't vaccinated?

For me it is mainly about the babies. Measles hurt young children and babies the most, and can even be deadly for infants. You start the vaccine process when children are 12-15 months.

Re: To Protect His Son, a Father Asks School to Bar Unvaccinated Children

#110

Post by spdustin »

pstuart wrote: post #102
spdustin wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Law, and injunctive measures.

Both of those are meaningless without force to back them up.

An injunction would be enforced by whatever means the judge deems necessary to ensure compliance, and anyone who violates it would be in contempt of court, which could result in arrest.
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