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Valve Economist Yanis Varoufakis Appointed Finance Minister of Greece

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Re: Valve Economist Yanis Varoufakis Appointed Finance Minister of Greece

#141
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, Germany forced the Greeks into a program of austerity even though it has been shown, very clearly, that austerity simply doesn't work (see references). The economic forecasts on which the German (really the EC, ECB, and IMF) analysis relied didn't account for the fact that reduced government spending would cause a reduction in GDP. They assumed that reduced government spending would somehow (magic?) increase priv…

I don't think we strictly disagree about the ineffectiveness of austerity. The core reason the economic growth didn't show up from austerity is all the stuff I was complaining about. And it's true, you don't get a stronger economy by having the government spend less: you get it when you tax less, more money stays in the economy and it gets reinvested effectively - which it won't do in a nasty regulatory environment w…

After reading the book I mentioned in my last comment, I'm not convinced that the euro is really such a good idea, especially for countries like Greece. It means that the only tool available to the government is fiscal policy. It also means that Germany effectively makes monetary policy on behalf of the rest of Europe, and so you can only imagine who the monetary policies benefit. So yes, ushering Greece out of the eurozone might not have been a terrible idea.

And I do think the Germans should be asked to help clean up the mess they were (partially) complicit in creating. There is plenty of blame to go around, no one is innocent. For every euro someone borrowed that they couldn't afford to pay back, someone lent a euro to someone who couldn't afford to pay it back. It was pretty clear we were in a terrible bubble years before it burst, but the market apparently assumed there would be a bailout, so things got much worse than they needed to.

Also keep in mind that the reason Greece (and Ireland, and Spain...) had so much government debt is that they transferred private sector debt onto their balance sheets. So what I would really would have preferred is to just let the owners of all those underwater banks take the hit and keep the government out of it except for making sure no one ended up starving to death (the usual social safety net stuff). I guess you could put me in the "bail out Main Street, not Wall Street" camp. But Germany didn't want that, because ultimately the money came from German banks, so...

While they were violating Greek sovereignty they could have asked for much more productive changes than they did (like the mis-regulation problems you mentioned, which I agree with). But they didn't. So who gets the blame? Germany, the ECB, the EC, and the IMF. The IMF has already admitted their terrible mistake (we'll see if they learn their lesson, doubtful), the others can apologize by working with the new Government to slash the debt so that the Greek people can at least start trying to fix the other problems we've identified.

Re: Valve Economist Yanis Varoufakis Appointed Finance Minister of Greece

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If by 'efficient' you mean 'most consistently profitable', then no, neither markets nor a 'flexible corporate environment' promote actual efficiency. In that kind of environment - which is not too dissimilar to the one we're in - corporations simply hoard money to no great end, and markets crash unless they're propped up by public subsidies and hand-outs. This distorts the wider economy and makes real efficiency less…

On the contrary, 'providing the greatest possible benefit to the greatest number of people' is a central focus in economics. Start with Pareto efficiency and go from there if you want to see various ways in which economists actually define and study efficiency.

Paying lip service to something is not the same as applied economics.

Re: Valve Economist Yanis Varoufakis Appointed Finance Minister of Greece

#143
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany is a nation that has benefited enormously from a single currency (according to my understanding). A large source of currency fluctuations are trade imbalances. If a country exports more than it imports, its currency appreciates. If it imports more than it exports, it depreciates. For example, if USA imports from the UK are bigger than it's exports to the UK, then USA will be buying GBP with USD (on average),…

I wish more people understood this. Germany has benefited enormously because of the euro, and yet you see a lot of belly aching about the southern European countries. Countries really only have two valves to throttle their economies. Interest rates (which Greece now has the highest in the European Union), and printing more money. Right now because the Greek economy is in a log jam, they're suffering from deflation an…

> Interest rates (which Greece now has the highest in the European Union)

The averaged interest rates are actually fairly low for Greece as a lot of its bonds are held by European institutions with very good conditions. The effective interest rate is at 2.4%, slightly lower than even Germanys effective rate. The more interesting value is the debt-service burden, but even though that's higher for Greece, it's still in the same ballpark (it's about the level that the US have).

Still, the debt is horribly high and I don't see a way to repay it. I also don't see a way that Greece can meaningfully default without leaving the EU. That's impossible to sell to Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland or might trigger a landslide. Maybe a unified fiscal policy could help. We live in interesting times.

see http://www.socialeurope.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/OP6.pd...

Re: Valve Economist Yanis Varoufakis Appointed Finance Minister of Greece

#144

It will be interesting to see if they can pare down some of Greece's military expenditures, they have over a hundred thousand in their military, nearly ninety thousand soldiers. Granted the politicians can always point to Turkey as a threat but I would be very curious how the new administration handles this. Side effects of closing some of the nearly 500 military and releasing troops is not having jobs for them.

I do not expect them to decrease military expenditures. Their coalition partners (the far-right "Independent Greeks" that will be "holding" the ministry of defense) will not allow that easily.

Not to mention Turkey is always a real threat -- like any expanding nation that wants to play a big role in the area, haven't forgotten it's empire status and has several assets that it covets in the Aegean area.

Even intelligent people for some reason don't grok history, and always assume "this time is different" and "wars cannot happen anymore because ..." (of course this is exactly what they said in Europe just before the first world war).

Re: Valve Economist Yanis Varoufakis Appointed Finance Minister of Greece

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the contrary, 'providing the greatest possible benefit to the greatest number of people' is a central focus in economics. Start with Pareto efficiency and go from there if you want to see various ways in which economists actually define and study efficiency.

Economists might focus on that, but the point is that in actuality companies do not focus on 'providing the greatest possible benefit to the greatest number of people'. Partially it's because that goal is far more difficult and complex than the simple aspirations of Greater Taylorism: to increase shareholder value. It's much easier to increase a stock price than it is to actually provide value for a large number of p…

I assumed by "orthodox economics" OP meant the study of economics. If s/he actually meant corporate behavior then that's of course different. Unfortunately people often conflate the study of economics with business, which leads to a lot of confusion.

Re: Valve Economist Yanis Varoufakis Appointed Finance Minister of Greece

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the contrary, 'providing the greatest possible benefit to the greatest number of people' is a central focus in economics. Start with Pareto efficiency and go from there if you want to see various ways in which economists actually define and study efficiency.

Paying lip service to something is not the same as applied economics.

Are you talking about economists or corporations? They aren't the same thing.

Re: Valve Economist Yanis Varoufakis Appointed Finance Minister of Greece

#147
post #21
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about forging documents to get accepted in the eurozone? Forging documents to get more loans? The rampant corruption on every level of the Greek society? [1] Obviously this is not politically correct, so downvotes are expected. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_evasion_and_corruption_in_G...

Politicians from parties who now get 3-4% of the vote lied years ago (to the Greek public as well as EU bankers), so let's take Greek workers' pensions, crush their unions, slash their social services, and offer no jobs or future to 60% of Greek young people. The bankers may not get their money anyway, since the debt is still increasing, but at least the Greeks* will get what they deserve! *may not apply to the elite…

See, a friend of mine owned some of those bonds (Icelandic in that case, but similar). He saved money to support his family in case where they'd need it. The money evaporated when Icelandic banks defaulted. The money that was used to prop up Greece came from people that worked for it - some directly, some indirectly. Why should their money be taken from them? Why should German social services be slashed because the EU still needs to funnel more money into Greece? [1] I totally agree that Greece needs help, but I don't have a good answer for those that need to pay for it.

[1] we had a major slashing of social services with the Hartz4-laws. Things are certainly not as ugly as in Greece, but Germany has the highest percentage of low-wage labor in Europe. Germany as a country is rich, but a lot of Germans pay the price.

Re: Valve Economist Yanis Varoufakis Appointed Finance Minister of Greece

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>In short, the EU and the IMF demanded savage spending cuts from the Greek government. Let's also mention WHY those spending cuts were demanded: Because Greece was on the verge of bankruptcy, the interest rates for their bonds were exploding and the EU and IMF had to pump more than 300 billion € into this 11 million people country.

> Let's also mention WHY those spending cuts were demanded: Because Greece was on the verge of bankruptcy[...]. That, while true, leaves out the quite important fact that Greece was only on the verge of bankruptcy because they bailed out their banks. One can nicely see that on charts displaying the debt/GDP ratio: While high for quite a few years, it was more or less constant. The bailout was the one factor that crea…

At least Greece prosecuted the people who were bribed into accepting those ruinous defence contracts. In Portugal he was kicked upstairs and is still in office.

Re: Valve Economist Yanis Varoufakis Appointed Finance Minister of Greece

#149
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Paul Krugman helpfully explains the situation here: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/26/opinion/paul-krugman-endin... In short, the EU and the IMF demanded savage spending cuts from the Greek government. Turns out that cutting in a depressed economy makes the depression worse (despite the wildly optimistic predictions by EU officials, who decided to ignore textbook economics). As a result, Greece now has enormous unemp…

>Turns out that cutting in a depressed economy makes the depression worse Sure, if you are insolvent but you can still get a hold on some borrowed money your situation is obviously going to get better in the short run. But you are just killing the goose that laid the golden egg, since your economy is dependent on borrowing money. It's not black or white. On the one hand you have the economist that say that Greece mus…

The interest rate is fast approaching zero and yet investment is still flat. No one will take a loan to create a new company or expand an existing one if 30% of the Greek market is unemployed, and therefore incapable of buying anything.

Re: Valve Economist Yanis Varoufakis Appointed Finance Minister of Greece

#150
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, Germany forced the Greeks into a program of austerity even though it has been shown, very clearly, that austerity simply doesn't work (see references). The economic forecasts on which the German (really the EC, ECB, and IMF) analysis relied didn't account for the fact that reduced government spending would cause a reduction in GDP. They assumed that reduced government spending would somehow (magic?) increase priv…

I don't think we strictly disagree about the ineffectiveness of austerity. The core reason the economic growth didn't show up from austerity is all the stuff I was complaining about. And it's true, you don't get a stronger economy by having the government spend less: you get it when you tax less, more money stays in the economy and it gets reinvested effectively - which it won't do in a nasty regulatory environment w…

Not when the public sector comprises most of the economy, like in southern European countries. Without public investment there will be no growth, even with 0 taxes.
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