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Ask YC: Is there a recession/depression coming?

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Re: Ask YC: Is there a recession/depression coming?

#31
post #30
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. The Dow's large drop today was triggered by the Fed cutting the fed funds target rate by 25 basis points (0.25%). Stock market investors were hoping that the Fed would cut 50 basis points, giving a further kick to the economy. However, cutting interest rates by too much at one time can make money too easy, adding to inflation pressures. I work on a trading floor at a major investment bank, and no one near me ment…

I think it's terrible that the Feds keep cutting interest rates. All it's doing is propping up Wall Street at the expense of individual citizens and the value of the US Dollar -- kind of like how China keeps the Yuan devalued at the expense of ordinary citizens. The last time the Feds cut interest rates this much, it caused a housing bubble.

There are certainly risks to cutting rates: it hurts our currency and increases inflation risk. I don't think your analysis is correct, though. First of all, the Fed hasn't been continuously cutting rates: the first cut was in September, after several years of continuous increases. Since then, they've only cut the Fed Funds target rate (the rate at which banks can lend to each other overnight) from 5.25% in summer 2006 to 4.25% now... a drop of only 1%.

Interest rates are nowhere near where they were at the beginning of the housing expansion -- the Fed Funds target rate was at 1% in 2003; it's at 4.25% now. Most people are saying that even in a recession scenario, the Fed will only cut to around 3%. Fed Funds aside, other interest rates remain high. LIBOR (the primary rate at which banks lend to each other) is around 1% above Fed Funds, depending on the maturity. Interest rates on corporate bonds are creeping up as lenders demand to be compensated for increased default risks. Swap spreads have widened. Consumer rates on mortgages and student loans are still relatively high, now that the secondary market for consumer debt has shrunk. Only Treasury yields remain low as investors seek the extra protection they provide. So it's not like the Fed has massively cut rates and money is sloshing through the system.

Second, excessively high interest rates can harm individual consumers. At the individual level, it means that you pay a higher rate to get a mortgage, buy a car, pay down your student loan, or whatever. The bigger effect is indirect though: companies can't borrow money to expand their businesses. This means lower employment growth, lower capital expenditures, less R&D, etc. People get laid off, paychecks are cut, consumer spending goes down. By cutting rates, the Fed believes (rightly, in my opinion) that they can at least alleviate these effects, even if it's impossible to prevent them entirely.

Lower interest rates aren't even that beneficial to banks. Banks earn money by lending it out. If they are forced to lend money at lower rates, they simply aren't going to earn as much revenue from interest. Wall Street banks also make money through things like trading, merger advisory, debt & equity issuance, etc. -- stuff that isn't really dependent on the absolute level of rates. A Fed Funds cut is hardly a Wall Street bailout.

Re: Ask YC: Is there a recession/depression coming?

#32
post #9

A recession is the best time to start a firm. Most companies make more mistakes and develop more bad habits when times are easy than when times are tough. It may take tough times to uncover the bad habits you developed and the unrealistic assumptions that you made when times were good, but it's the bad habits that are responsible, not tough times. Focus on customers and revenue and a value proposition that's compelli…

This is a great point, IMO. I'd add to it that, if you have a choice, SOLVE A PROBLEM. A recession is certainly a good time to solve a business problem (save your customers time/money) but may not be as good a time for an ad-supported social "fun" site. Either way, keep it lean (in terms of investment and burn rate).

Recessions are good times to for social "fun" sites too - HotOrNot, Blogger, LiveJournal, PlentyOfFish, Flickr, and Friendster were all started either right before or during the 01-02 recession, and Disney got its start in the middle of the Great Depression. You just gotta keep your cash outlays less than expenses, find a revenue stream other than advertising, and build something attractive enough that at least some people are willing to pay for it.

Re: Ask YC: Is there a recession/depression coming?

#33
post #31
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's terrible that the Feds keep cutting interest rates. All it's doing is propping up Wall Street at the expense of individual citizens and the value of the US Dollar -- kind of like how China keeps the Yuan devalued at the expense of ordinary citizens. The last time the Feds cut interest rates this much, it caused a housing bubble.

There are certainly risks to cutting rates: it hurts our currency and increases inflation risk. I don't think your analysis is correct, though. First of all, the Fed hasn't been continuously cutting rates: the first cut was in September, after several years of continuous increases. Since then, they've only cut the Fed Funds target rate (the rate at which banks can lend to each other overnight) from 5.25% in summer 20…

Do you think that the Bush level of deficit is sustainable? If not, what will happen to the US Dollar and the average US citizen? I can understand why it is reasonable to lower interest rates, but it seems to be ignoring the much bigger problem.

Re: Ask YC: Is there a recession/depression coming?

#34
"... The economy seems to be heading to a recession, but how will this affect the internet startup world? ..."

I remember reading somewhere on the Internet that one way to solve problems was to "redefine" them. [0] So try thinking "reasons you should start a startup". I can think of a few straight off.

- the coder pool is going to increase as businesses close or lay off extra staff.

- rents on property are going to be cheaper

- consumers are probably going to tighten the strings and shun payment to services of dubious value

- as opportunities, credit dries up, creators are really going to have to re-evaluate "what users want", now. Not pre-crash or recession.

- now you have to be frugal out of necessity :)

The advantage here is the rules of the game change. And change quickly. Where there is change there is opportunity as yesterdays "new ideas" become mainstream and relegated to the history of technology. Thats one theory. The other is in the hiatus the chance to build new technology and ideas has some breathing room to grow.

I'd also like you to consider the "future effect" of the current boom. A backlash is coming for those working in "safe, secure jobs" where market demand wane. I found this in the Australian press [1] and read as follows:

"... Michael Warrilow, Managing director of IT advisory company Hydrasight, believes today's tight labour market may be creating resentment among employers who have made pool-playing, T-Shirt wearing and all-day-Facebooking a part of the work 2.0 experience ..." [2]

and then continues ...

"... Generation Y will be appeased for as long as we continue with low unenployment... Once employers have more choice, there will be a backlash against their behaviour. " [3]

I can think of no better time to start a startup and it gives you a new reason to say to your folks, "At least it's not selling real-estate".

[0] Ideas for Startups: Wealth, 12 paras down ~ http://www.paulgraham.com/ideas.html

[1] A more conservative market to the US. But I have no doubt that VC's are also sharpening their knives.

[2], [3] Simon Sharwood ~ http://www.theage.com.au/news/technology/fast-forward-to-08/...

Re: Ask YC: Is there a recession/depression coming?

#35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a great point, IMO. I'd add to it that, if you have a choice, SOLVE A PROBLEM. A recession is certainly a good time to solve a business problem (save your customers time/money) but may not be as good a time for an ad-supported social "fun" site. Either way, keep it lean (in terms of investment and burn rate).

Recessions are good times to for social "fun" sites too - HotOrNot, Blogger, LiveJournal, PlentyOfFish, Flickr, and Friendster were all started either right before or during the 01-02 recession, and Disney got its start in the middle of the Great Depression. You just gotta keep your cash outlays less than expenses, find a revenue stream other than advertising, and build something attractive enough that at least some…

They're good for alcohol sales too; hopefully it'll trickle down into the more obscure drugs.

Re: Ask YC: Is there a recession/depression coming?

#36
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since I have no idea what your product is, how big your team is, how much experience you have and what resources you have access to, it is hard to say how much saving is good and how much time you can spend with it (since the costs are also unkonwn). But I would say in general you would spend about 6 months developing your product, and having something ready anywhere from a good working alpha version to something mor…

We already have a feature complete beta, we've been working on it for 8 months while keeping the day jobs. Most of the remaining work to do before we launch is superficial, just refining the UI and "making it pretty". We have been actively seeking money, but have gotten blank stares from investors when we explain that we have kept our day jobs thus far. So, I think I am agreeing with what you're saying, thanks for th…

What market are you in?

6 months seems to be cutting it pretty close - as a general rule, everything takes 2-3 times longer than you expect it will. Remember, there's a good chance your first launch will fail. We launched 2 sites in the 9 months where I kept my day job, and both went kerplop. That could be because of a half-hearted effort (the app I'm working on was also the main plan, I just couldn't concentrate enough to build it while I still had the day job), but in general easy sites don't make money, and sites that make money aren't easy.

Re: Ask YC: Is there a recession/depression coming?

#37
post #33
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are certainly risks to cutting rates: it hurts our currency and increases inflation risk. I don't think your analysis is correct, though. First of all, the Fed hasn't been continuously cutting rates: the first cut was in September, after several years of continuous increases. Since then, they've only cut the Fed Funds target rate (the rate at which banks can lend to each other overnight) from 5.25% in summer 20…

Do you think that the Bush level of deficit is sustainable? If not, what will happen to the US Dollar and the average US citizen? I can understand why it is reasonable to lower interest rates, but it seems to be ignoring the much bigger problem.

The deficit is certainly a problem, and it is not sustainable. However, interest rates don't really have much of an effect on the deficit. Sure, the government has to borrow money at a rate determined by the market -- why would anyone invest in a government bond paying, say, 2% when you could get a AAA corporate paying a much higher rate? But Congress has unfortunately shown a willingness to borrow money regardless of the interest costs. Keep in mind that short-term government interest rates were in double digits for most of the Reagan 80s, when the deficit was massively expanding.

Re: Ask YC: Is there a recession/depression coming?

#38
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Expletive deity, just this report? That triggered the 2+% drop in the last 2 hours!??!?

No. The Dow's large drop today was triggered by the Fed cutting the fed funds target rate by 25 basis points (0.25%). Stock market investors were hoping that the Fed would cut 50 basis points, giving a further kick to the economy. However, cutting interest rates by too much at one time can make money too easy, adding to inflation pressures. I work on a trading floor at a major investment bank, and no one near me ment…

Thanks for the information!

Re: Ask YC: Is there a recession/depression coming?

#39
post #18

It doesn't matter. First of all, it is notoriously impossible for anyone except a few pros (if even them) to time the market. So don't even bother trying. Just live your life. But second, even if you were sure that a recession was coming, you shouldn't let it affect your plans for starting a startup. Yes, funding does tend to dry up somewhat when the economy is bad. But if you look at startups that succeed vs. those…

Unless maybe your startup is called stufftodowhentheeconomyisnotinarecession.com.

Re: Ask YC: Is there a recession/depression coming?

#40
Recession - yep, in fact we're probably in one already. Too much wealth is being destroyed in this mortgage crunch/housing decline. Depression, though? Not likely - though I have heard very well connected folks say that we're probalby at the greatest risk of a depression since the 30's. Still, that risk is probably something less than 5%.

However, it's quite possible that this will be a rather deep recession - probably the deepest since the 1980 - 1982 recession. I was in college then. It was very difficult to find work of any kind.

The question on the table is should you leave your likely very safe government job to do this startup. I'll guess this is a software startup of some sort, and that your main expense is living expenses as you develop the code. That being the case, you should probably have at least 2 years worth of living expenses in the bank prior to doing this. A credit-crunch recession such as the one shaping up now means that it's going to be very difficult to borrow money. So do plan to self-fund as much as possible right now. Also, who are your target customers? Will they have trouble coming up with the money to pay you if we get a serious recession? - this is something you should think about.

If you don't have enough money on hand to be able to live for a couple of years, then I'd probably caution you to wait until you do have that much saved up. In the meantime, while you continue to work and save you'll have time to find out if this is just going to be a mild recession or something much more serious.

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