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Wow, thanks for all the comments! @nickb: That Morgan Stanley report is what prompted this post. I think it is prudent to question the source, however. @shayan: My team and I have 6 months of savings, meaning we can pay the bills for 6 months before we either need income or investment. Do you think that is long enough? @skmurphy: This makes a lot of sense to me, there are a few anecdotal stories about 2002-2003 being…
Carpe, are you sure you don't want to keep your govjob while working on the startup?
Wow, thanks for all the comments! @nickb: That Morgan Stanley report is what prompted this post. I think it is prudent to question the source, however. @shayan: My team and I have 6 months of savings, meaning we can pay the bills for 6 months before we either need income or investment. Do you think that is long enough? @skmurphy: This makes a lot of sense to me, there are a few anecdotal stories about 2002-2003 being…
Since I have no idea what your product is, how big your team is, how much experience you have and what resources you have access to, it is hard to say how much saving is good and how much time you can spend with it (since the costs are also unkonwn). But I would say in general you would spend about 6 months developing your product, and having something ready anywhere from a good working alpha version to something mor…
My question about your startup would be along the lines of how you are getting paid - are you depending on online advertising, or is this a service you are going to sell someone? Is there any chance you can have 1 or 2 customers ready to pay you something, even a token amount, while it is in "late-alpha" stage?
However, it's possible that the implications of Nanosolar being about to cut the price of grid electricity by 80% will bring us out of it middle of next year.
If you are a start up that will help businesses save money, or reduce fiscal risk, a down turn is good for your business.
I'd say we're very close to recession. Even Morgan Stanley says we're gonna enter recession soon: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&...
Expletive deity, just this report? That triggered the 2+% drop in the last 2 hours!??!?
I work on a trading floor at a major investment bank, and no one near me mentioned the Morgan Stanley report. My firm has been forecasting a 33% chance of a recession.
People will need somewhere to put their money. Some will turn to hedge funds and private equity. Others will turn to distressed debt funds, seeking to pick up the pieces of the recession. I'm sure plenty of people will turn to venture capital as well.
EDIT: That being said, I don't think it matters all that much whether or not we see a recession. Economic growth certainly isn't going to be great over the next year or so, but does it really matter if the GDP changes by +1% or -1%? All that's needed for a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. I think this is quite likely, but I doubt we will see real pain. Recent economic stats have been holding up despite the pressure from housing. Inflation remains moderate in the high 2% range. The Paulsen subprime rate freeze should help reduce foreclosures and slow house price depreciation. We'll see how it goes.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Expletive deity, just this report? That triggered the 2+% drop in the last 2 hours!??!?
No. The Dow's large drop today was triggered by the Fed cutting the fed funds target rate by 25 basis points (0.25%). Stock market investors were hoping that the Fed would cut 50 basis points, giving a further kick to the economy. However, cutting interest rates by too much at one time can make money too easy, adding to inflation pressures. I work on a trading floor at a major investment bank, and no one near me ment…