Immigration to increase the supply of programmers • Hacker News Board

Re: Immigration to increase the supply of programmers

#61

Post by bkessler100 » Fri, Jan 02, 2015, 6:19 PM UTC

patio11 wrote: post #15

I think the subtext of "I would hire thirty great programmers tomorrow!" is "I would hire thirty great programmers tomorrow! They just need to think 55 hours a week is a nice relaxing pace, have impeccable pedigrees, and be capable of spinning up within single-digit weeks. Also, we're looking for top-of-the-skill-curve at a combination of five technologies, two of which are fairly niche. For a variety of reasons we'd…

I miss the quality and due-diligence of pg's earlier essays. He appears indistinguishable from a Silicon Vally VC now.

Re: Immigration to increase the supply of programmers

#62

Post by encoderer » Fri, Jan 02, 2015, 6:19 PM UTC

[deleted] wrote: post #30

patio11 wrote: post #15

I think the subtext of "I would hire thirty great programmers tomorrow!" is "I would hire thirty great programmers tomorrow! They just need to think 55 hours a week is a nice relaxing pace, have impeccable pedigrees, and be capable of spinning up within single-digit weeks. Also, we're looking for top-of-the-skill-curve at a combination of five technologies, two of which are fairly niche. For a variety of reasons we'd…

[deleted]

I've not hired as many engineers lately as I'm sure others have, but while I agree with your sentiment, I think you're painting only 1/2 the picture.

Yes, people routinely under-estimate salaries of engineers in the bay area. And I certainly know people at Google and Apple who have comp packages in the neighborhood you mention. But I'm skeptical of calling that the "norm", and even if it is, it's only the norm for RSU-granting, established tech companies. Half the employment for engineers in the area is for smaller companies with ISO grants with Expected Value well below $300k and salaries 25% below your quote.

What's wonderful for engineers in the SFBA is that you have this choice. Take a front row seat at a startup and consistently make $110-130k, go to a huge tech giant like Google and make far more in a more narrowly defined role, or pick some place in the middle. Like Trulia, for example! We're always hiring Android and iOS engineers.

Re: Immigration to increase the supply of programmers

#63

Post by mhurron » Fri, Jan 02, 2015, 6:21 PM UTC

peterchon wrote: post #12

I'm an immigrant, served in USMC, after service had to pay and take a test to become a citizen (funny right? can die for the country but won't let me be a citizen). I love my country(both), but when did immigration become something to benefit the corporations?

Everything in the US is for the benefit of corporations.

Re: Immigration to increase the supply of programmers

#64

Post by encoderer » Fri, Jan 02, 2015, 6:21 PM UTC

ryanSrich wrote: post #26

patio11 wrote: post #15

I think the subtext of "I would hire thirty great programmers tomorrow!" is "I would hire thirty great programmers tomorrow! They just need to think 55 hours a week is a nice relaxing pace, have impeccable pedigrees, and be capable of spinning up within single-digit weeks. Also, we're looking for top-of-the-skill-curve at a combination of five technologies, two of which are fairly niche. For a variety of reasons we'd…

> $120k base plus an equity grant with expected value in the $X0k range. Or not even $120k. You'd be surprised at what some SV companies get away with. Take a look at angel list and you'll commonly see wages lower than $100k for experienced developers. I'd say the only epidemic that exists in the US's technology field is a lack of adequate compensation, not a lack of talent.

Using job ads to gauge market salaries will leave you at a disadvantage. There aren't many engineers in the bay area taking work today at $100k or below. Those that are are usually right out of school, or working for a cause they believe in.

Re: Immigration to increase the supply of programmers

#65

Post by 31reasons » Fri, Jan 02, 2015, 6:22 PM UTC

gaius wrote: post #25

31reasons wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not zero-sum ? companies like Google, Facebook pick 1 out of 100 programmers, if there was 10 fold increase in programmers, they would start picking 1 out of 1000. Instead of complaining shortage of programmer it makes sense to build software development processes around "average" programmers rather than insisting on superstar programmers. How many other fields do that ? Have you read an ad about hiring only su…

We don't require surgeons or airline pilots or bridge-designing civil engineers to be rock stars. Exactly why do people think you need a rock star programmer to build, I dunno, eBay for cats or whatever is the latest stupid VC fashion?

Lot of startups are just looking for superstar programmers because they want to get the most out of their limited funding. But without proper product-market fit its even counter productive. Superstar programmer is like a sports car, he/she will take you 10x faster in the wrong direction if your direction is wrong.

Re: Immigration to increase the supply of programmers

#66

Post by pen2l » Fri, Jan 02, 2015, 6:22 PM UTC

tokenadult wrote: post #55

patio11 wrote: post #15

I think the subtext of "I would hire thirty great programmers tomorrow!" is "I would hire thirty great programmers tomorrow! They just need to think 55 hours a week is a nice relaxing pace, have impeccable pedigrees, and be capable of spinning up within single-digit weeks. Also, we're looking for top-of-the-skill-curve at a combination of five technologies, two of which are fairly niche. For a variety of reasons we'd…

It's a pity your thoughtful comment is losing visibility as the submitted story has been flagged off the front page.

Sadly, it hasn't truly been "flagged off", it was done by the volition (or rather, the acquiescence of HN mods). This has happened for almost every immigration-related submission critical of pg's point-of-view. When you call them out for this, they go back to the excuse "the users voted it off!" But that's not really a good response, since they do routinely take the initiative of bringing to life stories that were voted off.

I know things get politically dirty on these kinds of submissions, but the conversation needs to happen -- pg can't just open the lid to say what he wants, and immediately close it. This is our bread and butter on the line, why shouldn't we be able to have this conversation without the submissions constantly getting killed.

Re: Immigration to increase the supply of programmers

#67

Post by Alex3917 » Fri, Jan 02, 2015, 6:23 PM UTC

patio11 wrote: post #15

I think the subtext of "I would hire thirty great programmers tomorrow!" is "I would hire thirty great programmers tomorrow! They just need to think 55 hours a week is a nice relaxing pace, have impeccable pedigrees, and be capable of spinning up within single-digit weeks. Also, we're looking for top-of-the-skill-curve at a combination of five technologies, two of which are fairly niche. For a variety of reasons we'd…

That doesn't address the question of whether or not we should increase immigration quotas though.

I don't think there's any question that if the only thing we do to increase the supply of great coders is to increase immigration quotas, then this basically just amounts to a pyramid scheme to further enrich the silicon valley elites at the expense of the public. But pg never says that this is the only thing we should do, he only says that it's one of the things we should do.

I don't necessarily agree with pg's realpolitik view of reality, but I also think a lot of the criticism of this piece is based on things that just aren't there.

Re: Immigration to increase the supply of programmers

#68

Post by encoderer » Fri, Jan 02, 2015, 6:23 PM UTC

vasilipupkin wrote: post #35

patio11 wrote: post #15

I think the subtext of "I would hire thirty great programmers tomorrow!" is "I would hire thirty great programmers tomorrow! They just need to think 55 hours a week is a nice relaxing pace, have impeccable pedigrees, and be capable of spinning up within single-digit weeks. Also, we're looking for top-of-the-skill-curve at a combination of five technologies, two of which are fairly niche. For a variety of reasons we'd…

I agree with you. Generally, there is no shortage of tech resumes on Wall Street - because wages are higher.

Also because there are fewer choices in NYC than engineers have in the SF Bay Area.

Re: Immigration to increase the supply of programmers

#69

Post by mgkimsal » Fri, Jan 02, 2015, 6:25 PM UTC

abalone wrote: post #52

patio11 wrote: post #15

I think the subtext of "I would hire thirty great programmers tomorrow!" is "I would hire thirty great programmers tomorrow! They just need to think 55 hours a week is a nice relaxing pace, have impeccable pedigrees, and be capable of spinning up within single-digit weeks. Also, we're looking for top-of-the-skill-curve at a combination of five technologies, two of which are fairly niche. For a variety of reasons we'd…

It seems highly improbable that cash-based Wall Street compensation packages could be offered by Silicon Valley startups. Maybe established companies could, but it would massively increase the fundraising requirements for early stage companies, with probably bad effects on the SV ecosystem. Perhaps you can argue that startup equity grants should be higher. Would hiring issues be resolved if the average equity grant t…

> It seems highly improbable that cash-based Wall Street compensation packages could be offered by Silicon Valley startups.

Maybe this would force VC companies to be more selective in who they fund, vs "fund 100 and hope for 1 to be the next google".

Re: Immigration to increase the supply of programmers

#70

Post by humanrebar » Fri, Jan 02, 2015, 6:27 PM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #44

humanrebar wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. What's more is that deflating the cost of programmers makes it less sensible to make programming teams more efficient. If programmers were paid like doctors, you would start to see the tech equivalent of nurses, lab technicians, orderlies, and physicians' assistants. In other words, if you were paying your best programmers $1M/yr, you would hire more personal assistants. And maybe there would be more demand f…

> If programmers were paid like doctors, you would start to see the tech equivalent of nurses, lab technicians, orderlies, and physicians' assistants. What do you think business analysts, testers, non-developer IT specialists, etc., are?

Right, but programmers aren't organized like hospital staff, which is my point. And, probably related, test engineer doesn't have the same cachet (or prominent degree programs) that x-ray technician or nurse practitioner has.

Maybe some of this is because they don't make TV shows about programming. But it could also be at least partially about seeing programmers as commodities and cost centers (I need 3 senior Java engineers!) instead of seeing them as effectively the core of your business.

So, I guess I have two suspicions about increasing programmer wages, at least for certain categories of problems:

1. It will incentivize laypeople to learn about how software development works, making technology business analyst seem less like mumbo jumbo and more like a good way to earn a living.

2. It will incentivize organizations to restructure their processes to maximize the productivity of their highest paid employees. This will create more opportunities for the peole described in point 1.