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Immigration to increase the supply of programmers

blogs.law.harvard.edu

21–30 of 119 posts

Re: Immigration to increase the supply of programmers

#21
Off topic, but the second comment from Jason is pure gold. He's calling Philip Greenspun (of Greenspun's tenth law fame), a "Harvard Lawyer of unknown programming provenance". I can see how blog hostnames can confuse people, but maybe google the author for context ?

Besides, he's fighting the strawman of training, where Greenspun talked about economic incentives.

Re: Immigration to increase the supply of programmers

#22
post #10

Maybe what we really need is an increase in VC's? Possibly grant resident status to anyone (with lot of money of course... after all, it's only the exceptional we are talking about here) who wants to fund and run a VC company? Because there are lots of great programmers who simply can't get funding. I wonder how PG would feel about that?

You can get a GC in the US if you can prove that you have $1 million invested in the US. Yes, its as simple as that. More rich people not moving is probably because if you're rich, you already have a good lifestyle.

Re: Immigration to increase the supply of programmers

#23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not zero-sum ? companies like Google, Facebook pick 1 out of 100 programmers, if there was 10 fold increase in programmers, they would start picking 1 out of 1000. Instead of complaining shortage of programmer it makes sense to build software development processes around "average" programmers rather than insisting on superstar programmers. How many other fields do that ? Have you read an ad about hiring only su…

Angie's List does explicitly that, showing you superstar plumbers, electricians, doctors, etc. If I am given the choice to hire a great plumber vs. an average plumber I would always hire a great plumber if I can afford him. Your argument that development processes should be built around average programmers is like saying open heart surgical procedures should be designed around average surgeons.

I don't know how to read your comment. I, for one, do believe that surgical procedures should be designed for the average surgeon.

You want the procedures to be built around superstars?

If I were building a software company that I wanted to survive and thrive long term, I would definitely try to cater to BOTH the superstar and more average programmers. Both have their place.

Re: Immigration to increase the supply of programmers

#24
What the blog post is saying is essentially saying is that pg is crying about a broken market, when in fact the market is working perfectly, ie. people who could be great programmers would rather go to other higher paying professions because programmers' salaries don't pay as well. The OP basically says the CEO of the startup could get 30 great programmers if he just raised his salaries and benefits higher, which is what the market is telling him. For example, if that CEO paid his programmers $1M/yr, you don't think he would get 100 of the best programmers in the entire world? What he really is saying is that he wants great programmers at a lower cost, and that's basically what increasing immigration would do by increasing the supply.

I personally have no problems with increasing immigration via H1B, but the OP makes an interesting point about economic incentives that push people to occupations. There are a lot of very smart people who would make great programmers that are going into finance, medicine, law, etc, because of higher prestige and better pay. Increasing immigration will increase the number of programmers, but if it is increased to the point where it affects wages, then people who would be great programmers would likely go to other professions rather than having to compete against immigrants for a comparatively lower wage, so it might be self-defeating in the long run.

Re: Immigration to increase the supply of programmers

#25
post #2

And why should we artificially restrict the supply of immigrants? It's not like it's a zero-sum game, something that Greenspun ought to realize. http://journal.dedasys.com/2014/12/29/people-places-and-jobs...

It is not zero-sum ? companies like Google, Facebook pick 1 out of 100 programmers, if there was 10 fold increase in programmers, they would start picking 1 out of 1000. Instead of complaining shortage of programmer it makes sense to build software development processes around "average" programmers rather than insisting on superstar programmers. How many other fields do that ? Have you read an ad about hiring only su…

We don't require surgeons or airline pilots or bridge-designing civil engineers to be rock stars. Exactly why do people think you need a rock star programmer to build, I dunno, eBay for cats or whatever is the latest stupid VC fashion?

Re: Immigration to increase the supply of programmers

#26
post #15

I think the subtext of "I would hire thirty great programmers tomorrow!" is "I would hire thirty great programmers tomorrow! They just need to think 55 hours a week is a nice relaxing pace, have impeccable pedigrees, and be capable of spinning up within single-digit weeks. Also, we're looking for top-of-the-skill-curve at a combination of five technologies, two of which are fairly niche. For a variety of reasons we'd…

> $120k base plus an equity grant with expected value in the $X0k range.

Or not even $120k. You'd be surprised at what some SV companies get away with. Take a look at angel list and you'll commonly see wages lower than $100k for experienced developers.

I'd say the only epidemic that exists in the US's technology field is a lack of adequate compensation, not a lack of talent.

Re: Immigration to increase the supply of programmers

#27
post #21

Off topic, but the second comment from Jason is pure gold. He's calling Philip Greenspun (of Greenspun's tenth law fame), a "Harvard Lawyer of unknown programming provenance". I can see how blog hostnames can confuse people, but maybe google the author for context ? Besides, he's fighting the strawman of training, where Greenspun talked about economic incentives.

I posted a comment to that effect a few minutes ago :-)

Re: Immigration to increase the supply of programmers

#28
I am all for letting talented people in. Clearly, everybody would benefit if the really talented programmers from all over the world could work where the eco-system is set up for them. However, tech companies generally complain about a general shortage of programmers. And I don't buy it because a shortage would manifest itself through large real wage increases and we don't see those. I also suspect talented programmers overseas are already working for us - remotely.

Re: Immigration to increase the supply of programmers

#29
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nowhere in this blog post does he say that the supply of immigrants ought to be restricted...

He sure seems to imply that paying far above market salaries is the best way to get good programmers, rather than immigration. Maybe I'm reading it wrong? I don't think the economics of that add up, though, long term. If there are a bunch of people willing to work, and an artificial barrier, that barrier will only work for so long before people route around it.

This post seems to imply that there is a single "market salary" for programmers. That's not really the case anywhere - a green intern doing web programming is never going to have an equal salary to a greybeard doing consulting in esoteric niche areas (eg COBOL in banking systems). There's always diminishing returns for superstar talent in any field - a Fortune 25 CEO gets paid how much more than a manager at Wendy's?

The collusion between the big tech companies to drive down salaries for top personnel strongly suggests that the market salary for these people is actually higher than what they're currently paid. They're grade-A talent in a hot field, the fact that their salaries are high doesn't mean they're above-market.

Re: Immigration to increase the supply of programmers

#30
post #15

I think the subtext of "I would hire thirty great programmers tomorrow!" is "I would hire thirty great programmers tomorrow! They just need to think 55 hours a week is a nice relaxing pace, have impeccable pedigrees, and be capable of spinning up within single-digit weeks. Also, we're looking for top-of-the-skill-curve at a combination of five technologies, two of which are fairly niche. For a variety of reasons we'd…

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