What is going to happen in 2015 • Hacker News Board

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#11

Post by jacquesm » Thu, Jan 01, 2015, 4:46 PM UTC

api wrote: post #6

The "death of the file" is a really mixed bag. The replacement is walled gardens with no privacy, control and perhaps even ownership of your data, questionable security, and the potential that your data could vanish if one is acquires or goes under.

I don't see the death of the file, rather more of them than fewer of them. Underneath all that pretty eye candy it's still files.

What I would love to see is the death of the walled garden, but then again that's probably a pipe dream.

I don't care if I'll be the last guy on the planet to self host his stuff but I can't see moving my email, my files or anything else off into the cloud. Outsourcing responsibility over my digital storage seems like asking for trouble.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#12

Post by venomsnake » Thu, Jan 01, 2015, 4:51 PM UTC

andyl wrote: post #3

Fred predicts Chinese companies will make a big entrance to the US market in 2015. At the same time, China restricts US companies in their markets (Gmail blocking being the latest example) Why do we (in America) allow this asymmetry? Is it a mistake to give Chinese companies an open door?

Depends on which side will be hurt more. Chinese companies have limited direct sales in US. As the congress/ Huawei affair a couple of years ago showed that they are just not welcome.

While a lot of stuff is made in china, it is OEM-ed for american companies.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#13

Post by avanishgiri » Thu, Jan 01, 2015, 4:53 PM UTC

api wrote: post #5

andyl wrote: post #3

Fred predicts Chinese companies will make a big entrance to the US market in 2015. At the same time, China restricts US companies in their markets (Gmail blocking being the latest example) Why do we (in America) allow this asymmetry? Is it a mistake to give Chinese companies an open door?

There is serious money in labor arbitrage for the top financial and executive class. We've had decades of heavy lobbying for these kinds of asymmetries to break the back of domestic labor and smaller competitors.

What does labor arbitrage have to do with protectionism in favor of domestic firms? e.g., RenRen over Facebook or Baidu over Google

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#14

Post by rjurney » Thu, Jan 01, 2015, 5:00 PM UTC

Having tried an Oculus Rift generation 3, where the tracking is PERFECT and the resolution is adequate, I think VR will do better in 2015 than he suggests.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#15

Post by sophacles » Thu, Jan 01, 2015, 5:02 PM UTC

Alex3917 wrote: post #8

waterside81 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Feds won't have to - if each state continues to make it legal/regulated, it's the same effect as descheduling it. It's kind of ingenious, actually, on the part of the Federal government.

There is still a lot of stuff that depends on weed being legal at the federal level, beyond just the consumer not getting arrested for buying small amounts. We're never going to see serious investment in the space until sellers can access bank infrastructure, there is no longer a risk of DEA raids, state laws are aligned with federal laws, etc. It's not going to happen in 2015 though, unless it gets tacked onto some…

Question for the historically minded folks here - Has there ever been a situation where a bunch of states decided that making something legal (or conversely illegal) against the federal government's position, cause a change in federal policy? How did that work? Can lessons from that apply now to the marijuana debate, amongst others, in the US?

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#16

Post by gaius » Thu, Jan 01, 2015, 5:07 PM UTC

api wrote: post #6

The "death of the file" is a really mixed bag. The replacement is walled gardens with no privacy, control and perhaps even ownership of your data, questionable security, and the potential that your data could vanish if one is acquires or goes under.

I have a friend who had a Kodak camera that, you plugged it into your PC and it uploaded straight to Kodak's photo hosting (this was before we called such things "cloud storage"). If you wanted your own copies of your own photos you would need to go onto said site and right-click download them one at a time.

One day Kodak decided they weren't going to run this site anymore, and just deleted the whole lot. She was heartbroken. And I look at all these guys selling similar solutions, and I got to wonder at what point did they knowingly cross the line to exploiting and victimising ordinary users?

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#17

Post by at-fates-hands » Thu, Jan 01, 2015, 5:28 PM UTC

rjurney wrote: post #14

Having tried an Oculus Rift generation 3, where the tracking is PERFECT and the resolution is adequate, I think VR will do better in 2015 than he suggests.

Does Oculus Rift have any plans to make this an online product where you can play with other Oculus players? I haven't seen any information about any plans to create an online gaming presence, but I can definitely see a lot of great commercial applications for it already.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#18

Post by at-fates-hands » Thu, Jan 01, 2015, 5:33 PM UTC

chubot wrote: post #10

+1 for 2015 being a tough period after the hype for VR and wearables. They will both be a thing, but people always overestimate progress in the short run and underestimate it in the long run. +1 for cybersecurity budgets exploding. How would one make a financial bet on this fact? It doesn't seem doable through a "normal" brokerage firm; it seems you need to be a VC or early investor.

Be prepared to see a lot more teeth coming to the current CFA laws. The law will either be amended with stiffer sentences, and higher minimum sentencing guidelines or you're going to see a rash of federal laws regarding hacking.

Yes, the businesses will react, but you can bet lawmakers are keen to start hammering hackers, making it even more dangerous to be doing this stuff.

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#19

Post by forsaken » Thu, Jan 01, 2015, 5:34 PM UTC

sophacles wrote: post #15

Alex3917 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is still a lot of stuff that depends on weed being legal at the federal level, beyond just the consumer not getting arrested for buying small amounts. We're never going to see serious investment in the space until sellers can access bank infrastructure, there is no longer a risk of DEA raids, state laws are aligned with federal laws, etc. It's not going to happen in 2015 though, unless it gets tacked onto some…

Question for the historically minded folks here - Has there ever been a situation where a bunch of states decided that making something legal (or conversely illegal) against the federal government's position, cause a change in federal policy? How did that work? Can lessons from that apply now to the marijuana debate, amongst others, in the US?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prohibition_in_the_United_State...

Re: What is going to happen in 2015

#20

Post by Kiro » Thu, Jan 01, 2015, 5:39 PM UTC

at-fates-hands wrote: post #17

rjurney wrote: post #14

Having tried an Oculus Rift generation 3, where the tracking is PERFECT and the resolution is adequate, I think VR will do better in 2015 than he suggests.

Does Oculus Rift have any plans to make this an online product where you can play with other Oculus players? I haven't seen any information about any plans to create an online gaming presence, but I can definitely see a lot of great commercial applications for it already.

Do you mean like Steam?

Oculus Rift is just a monitor so of course there will be multiplayer games if that's what you're speaking of. Anyone can develop a game for it and there already are ports of Quake etc out there. No need for Oculus themselves to be involved.