What is going to happen in 2015
1–10 of 128 posts
Re: What is going to happen in 2015
#2I hope the US de-schedules weed.
Re: What is going to happen in 2015
#3Fred predicts Chinese companies will make a big entrance to the US market in 2015. At the same time, China restricts US companies in their markets (Gmail blocking being the latest example)
Why do we (in America) allow this asymmetry? Is it a mistake to give Chinese companies an open door?
Re: What is going to happen in 2015
#4Fred predicts Chinese companies will make a big entrance to the US market in 2015. At the same time, China restricts US companies in their markets (Gmail blocking being the latest example) Why do we (in America) allow this asymmetry? Is it a mistake to give Chinese companies an open door?
that is a great question. there are two sides to this argument. one side says if they block you, you should block them. the other side says blocking trade backfires and that open markets create more opportunity even if you can't sell into their market
Re: What is going to happen in 2015
#5Fred predicts Chinese companies will make a big entrance to the US market in 2015. At the same time, China restricts US companies in their markets (Gmail blocking being the latest example) Why do we (in America) allow this asymmetry? Is it a mistake to give Chinese companies an open door?
There is serious money in labor arbitrage for the top financial and executive class. We've had decades of heavy lobbying for these kinds of asymmetries to break the back of domestic labor and smaller competitors.
Re: What is going to happen in 2015
#6The "death of the file" is a really mixed bag. The replacement is walled gardens with no privacy, control and perhaps even ownership of your data, questionable security, and the potential that your data could vanish if one is acquires or goes under.
Re: What is going to happen in 2015
#7I hope the US de-schedules weed.
The Feds won't have to - if each state continues to make it legal/regulated, it's the same effect as descheduling it. It's kind of ingenious, actually, on the part of the Federal government.
Re: What is going to happen in 2015
#8I hope the US de-schedules weed.
The Feds won't have to - if each state continues to make it legal/regulated, it's the same effect as descheduling it. It's kind of ingenious, actually, on the part of the Federal government.
There is still a lot of stuff that depends on weed being legal at the federal level, beyond just the consumer not getting arrested for buying small amounts. We're never going to see serious investment in the space until sellers can access bank infrastructure, there is no longer a risk of DEA raids, state laws are aligned with federal laws, etc.
It's not going to happen in 2015 though, unless it gets tacked onto some other crazy spending bill, which is unlikely. It'll probably happen sometime between 2016 and 2024.
Re: What is going to happen in 2015
#9Fred predicts Chinese companies will make a big entrance to the US market in 2015. At the same time, China restricts US companies in their markets (Gmail blocking being the latest example) Why do we (in America) allow this asymmetry? Is it a mistake to give Chinese companies an open door?
General Motors makes 58% of its entire profit in the Chinese Car market. Ford makes 18% of its profit from China. So clearly, US gains by trade in cars. This is clearly one example. The broader point is that a whole lot of US companies make money in China.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/detroits-road-through-china-narr...
Re: What is going to happen in 2015
#10+1 for 2015 being a tough period after the hype for VR and wearables. They will both be a thing, but people always overestimate progress in the short run and underestimate it in the long run.
+1 for cybersecurity budgets exploding. How would one make a financial bet on this fact? It doesn't seem doable through a "normal" brokerage firm; it seems you need to be a VC or early investor.