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Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

paulgraham.com

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Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#571

Post by pgeorgi »

mahyarm wrote: post #381
pgeorgi wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Any reputable tech company (or startup) will provide health insurance ... which generates another dependency on the employer (beyond the work visa thing). I know the history of the employer-pays-for-health-care model in the US, but really: it's broken, fix it.

You already have that dependency in terms of your visa. If you don't work for your employer anymore, you don't have a visa any more, and you need to leave the country fairly quickly or get a new visa elsewhere. In the light of that the healthcare part doesn't matter as much.

You're right, the healthcare issue bites citizens much more than work visa holders (who are already screwed).

It's still broken (like so many other things in the US) and therefore one more deterrent to even considering going the work visa -> green card -> citizenship route.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#572

Post by geebee »

geebee wrote: post #526
dang wrote: post #327

All: much of this thread is of low quality, below the standard that Hacker News discussion should adhere to, because it doesn't engage with what pg's essay actually says. It merely uses it as a trigger point for passions about other things, like H1Bs and Infosys. In other words it goes on a generic tangent, and generic tangents are the vectors we most need to avoid if we want discussions that are substantive instead…

I'm going to strongly disagree with you on one point here. If you use very inflammatory language, you need to accept a degree of responsibility it the discussion veers rapidly off topic. PG chose to appy the phrase "anti-immigrant" to the people he disagrees with. Keep in mind, there are people who support high levels of immigration (the US currently takes 1.2+ million immigrants a year), support a path to legalizati…

I'm unable to edit the above remark, so I'll have to leave a new comment.

After re-reading the original post, I am obliged to point out that PG does not use the phrase "anti-immigrant" as I claimed, he uses the phrase "anti-immigration people." This was my mistake, and I apologize for the error. Calling someone "anti-immigrant" (directed at a person) is more serious than calling them "anti-immigration" (directed at a policy).

This doesn't change the core of my argument - I still feel the label "anti-immigration people" is an unfair one and harms the level of discourse. But I do want to be clear about this again - PG did not use the phrase "anti-immigrant".

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#573

Post by ulfw »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #564
ulfw wrote: post #562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And how do you identify a 'top-notch' programmer as a government organization dealing with visas? Seriously. I'd argue 95% of hiring managers in SV can't identify a top programmer. The problem could be solved easily if H1-Bs could only be given to companies registered and headquartered in the USA. That would get rid of the Wipros and Infosyses etc.

That would also get rid of most foreign countries from operating in the states, since they couldn't get visas for management, trainers, or whatever. Maybe you just meant Indian companies?

Fair enough. What you could do is to split the 55,000 visas into 50,000 for US entities hiring foreigners. Then you could have a separate 5000 H1-Bs for foreign companies operating in the US. None of the latter would ACTUALLY be able to hire a single person realistically, because Wipro/Infosys etc would just grab those 5000 completely. But at least the other 50,000 would go towards startups and the Googles/Facebooks/etc of the world hiring foreign talents.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#574

Post by gaius »

OmarIsmail wrote: post #136
Tarrosion wrote: post #103

I generally find PG very convincing, but not here. Opening up immigration would have major side effects, though probably it would help companies hire top programmers. But rather than bear that cost, would we as a society be better off if we tried to educate children better, get more kids hooked on being makers, whatever it is you believe is important? Fundamentally, making the 95-to-5 population comparison only makes…

Do you think YC startups are lying when they say they're struggling to hire? It is obviously in our best interests to hire every great programmer we come across - no matter what. If you really think that there are some great developers out there who are struggling to find a job in the US please send them my way or send them to ANY of the YC startups and they'll be hired within 2 weeks. How long do you think it takes…

No, they probably are struggling, because being an early stage startup engineer is a very, very bad deal. You will work as hard as the founders, and after a year or two the salary you gave up for stock options will equal at least the cash the founders put in themselves, and if it is a success, you will get 1% of 1% of what they do. People are beginning to realize this and demand market level wages or meaningful equity participation or both. What these companies and the VC firms backing them want is a new set of naive prospective early stage engineers...

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#575

Post by cplease »

I'm not sure what PG thinks is so holy about the software industry if his whole argument boils down to the fact that the USA has 5% of the world's population.

By the same logic, 95% of the great plumbers, carpenters, electricians, accountants, lawyers, janitors etc. are abroad as well, let them in too as long as companies here want to hire them, until the USA has > 50% of the world population?

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#576

Post by douche »

j_baker wrote: post #165

I have a ton of issues with this post. For starters, the idea that some people are just inherently exceptional programmers and others can only be competent is elitist. Is it any wonder that every programmer in Silicon Valley thinks they're God's gift to the programming world? We've been taught that to be hirable we have to be "10x" engineers who spend all of our free time hacking. But ok, maybe you don't agree with m…

>For starters, the idea that some people are just inherently exceptional programmers and others can only be competent is elitist.

It may be elitist, but that doesn't make it incorrect. There is a floor level of intellect and memory that is required to program effectively, and those that are born with more of those gifts have more potential to be a good programmer. It still requires work to hone those skills, but that work is more effective if you're starting from a higher floor.

I could practice playing basketball as many hours as Lebron James or Kevin Durant, but they are always going to have inherent advantages over me.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#577

Post by seanmcdirmid »

ulfw wrote: post #573
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #564

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would also get rid of most foreign countries from operating in the states, since they couldn't get visas for management, trainers, or whatever. Maybe you just meant Indian companies?

Fair enough. What you could do is to split the 55,000 visas into 50,000 for US entities hiring foreigners. Then you could have a separate 5000 H1-Bs for foreign companies operating in the US. None of the latter would ACTUALLY be able to hire a single person realistically, because Wipro/Infosys etc would just grab those 5000 completely. But at least the other 50,000 would go towards startups and the Googles/Facebooks/…

The problem is, if we did that, the rest of the world would retaliate, and the USA sells more abroad than at home (we are a net exporter of technology); we still wind up screwing ourselves and losing jobs in the process.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#578

Post by Xatter »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #490
Iftheshoefits wrote: post #478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best, strongest interpretation of PG's essay merits far less charity than even exists in this thread. There is barely anything of substance in the whole piece, and the parts that are substantive are just so far out of line with the empirical data we have regarding this issue as to be baffling coming from somebody with the cache of PG. If I were not being "charitable" I'd use words like "peurile," "ignorant," "tra…

so far out of line with the empirical data we have regarding this issue What is that empirical data? I'm curious, not being snide.

Since you've asked here's some actual data on the issue at question

Some raw data http://www.epi.org/publication/bp359-guestworkers-high-skill...

A good analysis of several data sets with links to raw data http://spectrum.ieee.org/at-work/education/the-stem-crisis-i...

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#579

Post by mgkimsal »

kar2014 wrote: post #455
shanusmagnus wrote: post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not much room to grow? Says who? Did I miss the referendum in which the computer science salary cap was enacted into law? The fact that companies are not charitable institutions is exactly the point. If they want more or better engineers they are welcome to pay salaries that will motivate such people to work for them, much as the petroleum industry is currently doing.

Or they could offshore and you could day dream about your double salary all you want. That is a possibility, wait, it is a reality, already happening.

Then let them carry on. Most of these companies are global in nature already. My naive view of the plea for more foreign tech workers to enter the US is that the majority of those controlling the money just really really really like like in SF and don't want to leave. When there's talk of tech worker shortage, there's not even any really serious effort to look around the US. Nope, the hive mind is in SF, and they'll move heaven and earth before they have to move someplace else.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#580

Post by angry_octet »

At the core of PG's post are two related errors (1) that US companies, without immigration barriers, would choose to recruit these top 5% programmers, and (2) that these 5% would want to move to the US.

Whether companies even can select out this 1-in-20 person is implausible, especially from overseas. The top 25% maybe. I can only ascribe (1) to an unreasoning faith in American capitalism and (2) to a lack of travel and living overseas.

In my experience the 5% programmers are already taken. America does need to reduce the immigration admin burden to encourage innovation, but its only a part of the problem. And maybe American companies should try harder to innovate in other countries.

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