Earlier quoted context omitted.
Addendum to #3: Motivation is necessary but not sufficient in software development; it is one of the professions that really does have minimum cognitive capability and working memory requirements, which current research shows to be highly nonplastic via education or training. Genes matter.
> current research shows to be highly nonplastic via education or training I'd be very interested to see what you're referring to. Citation needed. edit: The only thing I can thing I can think of that you might be referring to is the recent meta-study of the impact of practice on performance: http://pss.sagepub.com/content/early/2014/06/30/095679761453... I don't have access to the full article so I don't know if the…
Music 28 1,259: 21%
Games 11 1,291: 26%
Sports 60 2,633: 18%
Professions 7 321: 1%
Education 51 5631: 4%
So not programmers specifically. I didn't read the paper very thoroughly and examine their methodology (perhaps their criteria were such that they were allowed to cherrypick results), but it seems to me that the professions category seems to suffer from particularly low sample size.
It's important to note that under deliberate practice, they did not include starting age. To explain the other ~80% of variance, they proposed starting age, general intelligence and working memory capacity. Pm me if you would like to see the article.