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Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

paulgraham.com

521–530 of 655 posts

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#521

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Addendum to #3: Motivation is necessary but not sufficient in software development; it is one of the professions that really does have minimum cognitive capability and working memory requirements, which current research shows to be highly nonplastic via education or training. Genes matter.

> current research shows to be highly nonplastic via education or training I'd be very interested to see what you're referring to. Citation needed. edit: The only thing I can thing I can think of that you might be referring to is the recent meta-study of the impact of practice on performance: http://pss.sagepub.com/content/early/2014/06/30/095679761453... I don't have access to the full article so I don't know if the…

Regarding the first article, they discovered 9331 studies that studied the impact of practice on performance, and narrowed it down to 157 studies based on their criteria. The breakdown in terms of genre, number of studies, total number of participants, and % of variance in performance capable of being explained by deliberate practice was:

Music 28 1,259: 21%

Games 11 1,291: 26%

Sports 60 2,633: 18%

Professions 7 321: 1%

Education 51 5631: 4%

So not programmers specifically. I didn't read the paper very thoroughly and examine their methodology (perhaps their criteria were such that they were allowed to cherrypick results), but it seems to me that the professions category seems to suffer from particularly low sample size.

It's important to note that under deliberate practice, they did not include starting age. To explain the other ~80% of variance, they proposed starting age, general intelligence and working memory capacity. Pm me if you would like to see the article.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#522
post #48

This is nothing new. The problems with work visas in the US are: 1. Cheap bodyshops consuming much of the quota; and 2. Immigration being tied to an employer. (2) is a direct cause of (1). For those that don't know, sponsorship for a green card basically involves two stages. Labor Certification ("LC") is the first and most time-consuming stage. It involves "proving" you can't find a US citizen to fill the job. There…

H1B workers can switch jobs -- your point (2) is not true. During the first 6 years or until the LC is filed, H1 workers can work for any employer in their field of study. After the LC has been filed, they can switch jobs as long as the job title/requirements are substantially similar (thanks to the American Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act). And the recent executive action by Obama will make it even e…

You are (mostly) incorrect.

AC21 portability (as it's called) allows for an employee to maintain their pending immigration status if they have filed an I-485 and it has been pending for at least 180 days.

Thing is, the I-485 is the last 10% of the process. The biggest hurdle is getting the Labor Certification, which is the part that can (and does) take years.

So an employee technically has H1B portability under the AC21 provisions but they must start all over again if they aren't in the last 5-10% of the immigration process.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#523
post #50

Two immediately obvious problems in this set of arguments: 1) There'd be more great programmers if they wouldn't all divide themselves amongst so many startups, the vast majority of which will fail. Some other VC's have pointed out this problem as well. Less start-ups overall would increase the amount of great programmers available, and maybe more of them would succeed. 2) PG himself has said that great programmers g…

>Less start-ups overall would increase the amount of great programmers available

Sure, kill the innovation. Don't start many startups. Hilarious.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#524
post #327

All: much of this thread is of low quality, below the standard that Hacker News discussion should adhere to, because it doesn't engage with what pg's essay actually says. It merely uses it as a trigger point for passions about other things, like H1Bs and Infosys. In other words it goes on a generic tangent, and generic tangents are the vectors we most need to avoid if we want discussions that are substantive instead…

> But if you're going to dispute an article—any article—on Hacker News, you have a responsibility to engage with what it really says. Let's look at what this post really states: > The US has less than 5% of the world's population. Which means if the qualities that make someone a great programmer are evenly distributed, 95% of great programmers are born outside the US. This is a huge if . Frankly, it is very difficult…

Does his argument work if and only if the ratio is 95 to 5? What if it is 80 to 20 or 66 to 33? Would agree/disagree differently with what he says if the number changed but stayed along the same lines?

The charitable reading about the "qualities that make someone a great programmer" is the raw human potential/talent - obviously it is currently not the case that 95% of great programmers are not from the US, due to various factors. But his point is that, since humans everywhere likely have the same potential ranges, the ratio of US to Non-US programmers is going to trend toward the population ratio as remaining countries are brought up to speed, and we should prepare for that. Wouldn't you agree?

> Is it not Graham's responsibility to provide reasonable detail as to how the United States could actually accomplish what he proposes?

Really, no. He's allowed to talk about this without being irresponsible even if he doesn't outline the implementation of the solution.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#525
There are a number of problems with this argument. (1) Great programmers are not evenly distributed around the world because most places lack good educational systems. It makes sense that most are in 1st world countries. (2) Big companies have offices in India, China and elsewhere. Immigration policy does not prevent Google from hiring every great programmer on the planet. What's their complaint? (3) Do many companies need great programmers? Sorry, but your web/mobile app isn't rocket surgery. (4) For every single product on the planet the market finds a price to match supply & demand. Why are tech jobs different? $200k in SF is worse than $100K in Dallas. Increase salaries; problem solved. (5) PG says startups are DESPERATE! Yet they won't consider remote employees, so I guess they aren't that desperate. (6) No one can spot a "great" programmer in a pile of resumes. Maybe your interviews and hiring committees suck?

The least controversial policy is 1st world countries give their foreign STEM grads Green Cards (or equivalent). The 2nd easy solution is to pay top programmers lots more money. If they are indeed worth "100X or even 1000X" more than the average, it makes economic sense to pay at least 5X more. Only hedge funds seem to understand this. Finally, any company with 200+ employees can put an office in India/China and hire everyone they want. You can either wait for politicians to change immigration laws, or make remote offices work. Which is more likely?

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#526
post #327

All: much of this thread is of low quality, below the standard that Hacker News discussion should adhere to, because it doesn't engage with what pg's essay actually says. It merely uses it as a trigger point for passions about other things, like H1Bs and Infosys. In other words it goes on a generic tangent, and generic tangents are the vectors we most need to avoid if we want discussions that are substantive instead…

I'm going to strongly disagree with you on one point here. If you use very inflammatory language, you need to accept a degree of responsibility it the discussion veers rapidly off topic.

PG chose to appy the phrase "anti-immigrant" to the people he disagrees with.

Keep in mind, there are people who support high levels of immigration (the US currently takes 1.2+ million immigrants a year), support a path to legalization for people already living here illegally, even support general skilled immigration. They simply don't see evidence for a specific shortage of high tech workers, and, as a result, oppose tinkering with the immigration system in a way designed to specifically increase the percentage of programmers who are immigrants. In my opinion, it's pretty appalling to call people like this "anti-immigrant". They should bristle at the accusation.

Also - the principle of charity is important, but you've got to admit that calling someone "anti-immigrant" is a serious accusation, kind of a smear.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#527
post #327

All: much of this thread is of low quality, below the standard that Hacker News discussion should adhere to, because it doesn't engage with what pg's essay actually says. It merely uses it as a trigger point for passions about other things, like H1Bs and Infosys. In other words it goes on a generic tangent, and generic tangents are the vectors we most need to avoid if we want discussions that are substantive instead…

Perhaps the essay just doesn't say what it wants to say very effectively. It starts right out painting people who disagree with its thesis as "anti-immigration". So no one should be surprised about the quality of conversation that results from that.

It is a classic high school, debate or lunchroom, tactic to make it impossible to argue against a statement. An under-handed debate trick that draws your cognitive response away from debunking the more important points. Chaff.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#528
My question is why should we only apply this to programmers? What about Mechanical engineers? What about Machinists (there is quite the demand and a very low supply of them if you talk to many manufacturers), what about Doctors, Nurses? Farmers? (there's not much demand that I've heard about the need for farmers, but I think they're important, so I'd like to bring them in to the Country.)

Do we only let people in because of the skills they have? What about the next set of skills that will become more important in the future? What specific set of skills do we let in, which ones do we keep out? What about people who have the potential, but currently lack the skills? How do we find those people?

I don't believe in exceptional programmers, I believe in exceptional thinkers. Programming is a skill, just like any other skill. Some people will be better at it than others. But it's a skill that can be taught. People who are more capable of being the "great thinkers," are more likely to be a better programmer than not, not because of the programming language they know, but because they're able to solve problems. If I ran a company, these are the people I want.

But then we come full circle, who are these people, and do I only let them in because they're "special?"

I also think that way too much attention is paid to what Paul Graham says. Yes, he was successful with certain things, but that doesn't mean he's all knowing and all wise.

As to my biases, I'm all for immigration, but not so much for the H1B program (for ethical reasons, I'm not a big fan of the whole "he has skills that no one else has, so he gets the golden ticket to the chocolate factory. To me, that just means that he/she had a more privileged upbringing than 60-80% of the world. ie, access to clean water, food, education, electricity, computers.)

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#529

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well then, that means one of two things: 1. There is, as dictated by the law of supply-and-demand, not an undersupply of good programmers, otherwise good programmers would be in a negotiating position such that they would reject your 50k offer for a 150k offer elsewhere; or 2. The market cannot support this hypothetical company's business model. If my restaurant fails because labor costs leave me overrunning my reven…

But unlike a resteraunt, you can open abroad and capture labor resources in other countries. So if programmers get too expensive in the states, or Silicon Valley, relative to the world market, there is a point where you are forced to open an office elsewhere (if not your competition does and eats your lunch). Without immigration, that would happen sooner (rather than the mythical doubling of American programming sala…

Programmers in the US are already wildly, wildly expensive in the USA relative to the world market, often by an order of magnitude. So, if that's the case, we're already screwed and we're only being saved by some market inefficiency. We should all prepare for the inevitable future where we are doing very well to make 15-20k.

EDIT: http://www.payscale.com/research/IN/Job=Web_Developer/Salary

The maximum on that scale is 530,000 Rs, which is 8000 USD for a web developer. No doubt other countries have even lower salaries.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#530
post #448
post #427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article itself is of low quality. Entire sections are based on flimsy assumptions or are just plain false. I'll list a few here: "The US has less than 5% of the world's population. Which means if the qualities that make someone a great programmer are evenly distributed, 95% of great programmers are born outside the US." A huge portion of the world can't even feed itself let alone educate itself to the high standa…

There are many opportunities to apply the Principle of Charity here. For example, that statement about populations can easily be interpreted to mean simply that great programmers can be born anywhere. That's pretty unobjectionable. (Imagine the kerfuffle if he had claimed anything but that.) And does the literal number "95%" substantively change the argument that there are many great programmers outside the U.S. and…

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