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Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

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Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#441

Post by shanusmagnus »

kar2014 wrote: post #406
shanusmagnus wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a related question that I never see addressed: how big of a programmer shortage do you think there would be if salaries were 50% higher? All the talk seems to assume that the makeup of industry is utterly inelastic. Fine, maybe your small company in Cleveland can't go out tomorrow and hire 10 A+ developers, but do people really not believe that if starting salary for an A+ developer was $150k, or whatever, tha…

> but do people really not believe that if starting salary for an A+ developer was $150k, or whatever, that we might get more high-achievers First, US is already the third country in list for highest paid programmers, there is not much room to grow. Second, Companies are in business, not for charity. Companies are there for profit so if they could hire a beginner programmer for 50k, they should, otherwise they would…

Not much room to grow? Says who? Did I miss the referendum in which the computer science salary cap was enacted into law?

The fact that companies are not charitable institutions is exactly the point. If they want more or better engineers they are welcome to pay salaries that will motivate such people to work for them, much as the petroleum industry is currently doing.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#442

Post by frostmatthew »

ColinCera wrote: post #385
23david wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's important for all startup founders to realize that non-executive salaries in the U.S. tech industry have been incredibly distorted by the illegal wage fixing practiced over the last 10-15 years. The wage fixing set an artificial ceiling on programmer salaries. And if it's now stopped, we should expect a major correction over the next 5 years as market wages adjust. I'm hopeful that recent salary increase…

What "wage-fixing" are you talking about? Are you referring to the brief period in which a handful of tech companies colluded to tamp down salaries and cross-recruiting? Because that involved only a tiny percentage of the software developers in the US and had no significant impact on the national average salaries. Or has there been broader wage-fixing that you're aware of?

> Are you referring to the brief period in which a handful of tech companies colluded to tamp down salaries and cross-recruiting?

Ignoring for the moment I don't think four years is very "brief" or eight is only a "handful"[1] (and it may actually be even more[2])

It's a bit naive to think this "had no significant impact on the national average salaries" - some of these companies are/were among the largest and most desirable companies in tech, what they do is going to affect the entire industry.

e.g. if you are a hiring manager at a company not involved and are trying to hire someone who is also considering an offer from an involved company the amount you need to offer to be more attractive is less. This brings down the average you pay, which brings down the average you offer. Likewise companies now competing for candidates also receiving offers from you now have an easier time sweetening their offers, and so forth and so on.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-Tech_Employee_Antitrust_L...

[2] http://pando.com/2014/03/22/revealed-apple-and-googles-wage-...

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#443

Post by justincormack »

briandear wrote: post #340
pastProlog wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Over 100,000 H1-B's are coming over every year. This keeps discussing exceptional programmers. You mean we need more than 100,000 exceptional programmers coming over every year? The reality is that the idea that even 10,000 of these people are exceptional programmers is a laugh. Every year 100,000 H1-Bs can come in. To believe this article, we'd have to pretend that we have a big wall up preventing these dozens…

So the problem isn't the immigration restriction, it's the lack of screening. Using PG's logic, all of those 100,000 should be 'exceptional' or else we're wasting tens of thousands of visa slots that should be going to the 'exceptional.' And how is 'exceptional' determined? We should let everyone in with the hope that some percentage happens to be exceptional? What about the non exceptional? What would that do to the…

You could do a salary auction, so the people offering the highest salaries get the Visa's. At least that would incentivise the people adding more value rather than less...

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#444

Post by seanmcdirmid »

Amezarak wrote: post #437
kar2014 wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but do people really not believe that if starting salary for an A+ developer was $150k, or whatever, that we might get more high-achievers First, US is already the third country in list for highest paid programmers, there is not much room to grow. Second, Companies are in business, not for charity. Companies are there for profit so if they could hire a beginner programmer for 50k, they should, otherwise they would…

Well then, that means one of two things: 1. There is, as dictated by the law of supply-and-demand, not an undersupply of good programmers, otherwise good programmers would be in a negotiating position such that they would reject your 50k offer for a 150k offer elsewhere; or 2. The market cannot support this hypothetical company's business model. If my restaurant fails because labor costs leave me overrunning my reven…

But unlike a resteraunt, you can open abroad and capture labor resources in other countries. So if programmers get too expensive in the states, or Silicon Valley, relative to the world market, there is a point where you are forced to open an office elsewhere (if not your competition does and eats your lunch). Without immigration, that would happen sooner (rather than the mythical doubling of American programming salaries).

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#445

Post by karmajunkie »

swatow wrote: post #408

I think it's useful to rephrase the emotive, and unclear language used in this debate (like "driving down prices") into the language of economics. Let's assume there are two types of programmers, normal and great. Now in a competitive market (which the labor market basically is, especially since the collusion issue has been dealt with), wages and employment levels are determined by supply and demand for each type of…

High wages are only a bad thing from the perspective of capital. From the perspective of the middle class, they distribute capital (and reward effort) more equitably.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#446

Post by WalterBright »

The fascinating thing about the modern internet is it has made the development of the D programming language possible. The core development team consists of people from all over the world. They are highly competent, and few companies could afford to hire any of them, let alone convince them to relocate across the world.

I just think it's awesome.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#447

Post by DenisM »

I thought a lot about it, and I think I found a simple solution:

Keep the current h1b caps, and then auction off each visa to the highest bidder. The auction proceeds must go to the employee in question, with jail term for anyone trying to claw it back.

What this will do is drive the wages for the immigrant engineers ever higher, by extension raising the wages of Americans as well. It will also make sure only the best ones can be brought in, stopping the "cheap import" problem, and the higher wage will give the best incentive to come. Resultingly, foreign companies will be drained of talent, and American companies will become even stronger against weaker adversaries, and employing much of the best talent in the world.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#448

Post by dang »

nhjk wrote: post #427
dang wrote: post #327

All: much of this thread is of low quality, below the standard that Hacker News discussion should adhere to, because it doesn't engage with what pg's essay actually says. It merely uses it as a trigger point for passions about other things, like H1Bs and Infosys. In other words it goes on a generic tangent, and generic tangents are the vectors we most need to avoid if we want discussions that are substantive instead…

The article itself is of low quality. Entire sections are based on flimsy assumptions or are just plain false. I'll list a few here: "The US has less than 5% of the world's population. Which means if the qualities that make someone a great programmer are evenly distributed, 95% of great programmers are born outside the US." A huge portion of the world can't even feed itself let alone educate itself to the high standa…

There are many opportunities to apply the Principle of Charity here. For example, that statement about populations can easily be interpreted to mean simply that great programmers can be born anywhere. That's pretty unobjectionable. (Imagine the kerfuffle if he had claimed anything but that.) And does the literal number "95%" substantively change the argument that there are many great programmers outside the U.S. and that U.S. is ill served by startups not being able to hire them? No it does not. Therefore, by the Principle of Charity, that is not the point we should focus on.

My interest in this thread is not about immigration. It's about how far too many Hacker News comments are uncharitable (in this specialized sense) and how that seems to go along with ill-spiritedness. It's time we all stepped up our game.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#449

Post by Amadou »

prostoalex wrote: post #434
tomohawk wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The real problem with h1b is that it appears to be primarily used to offshore jobs to other countries. The largest users of h1b visas are firms that bring people to the US for a period of time to get trained, then have them return to their country of origin, offshoring the work (see for example http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2007-02-08/work-visas-ma... ) So, tossing H1B would be a great start at immigration refo…

> The largest users of h1b visas are firms that bring people to the US for a period of time to get trained, then have them return to their country of origin, offshoring the work Minor detail, but if it's the same employer in both countries, they don't need to apply for H1, L1 would do the trick. It's also not subject to a cap and is much cheaper administratively. So if companies are using H1 program for foreign emplo…

The L1 visa program forbids placing the employee at a third party site as part of a labor arrangement. Thus the L1 visa is not applicable to this sort of "training." I'm sure plenty of L1 employers play fast and loose with that rule because there is essentially no formal enforcement mechanism. Nevertheless, H1B is the official visa for that sort of work.

http://www.technologyexecutivesclub.com/Articles/outsourcing...

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#450

Post by shanusmagnus »

chetanahuja wrote: post #380
shanusmagnus wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a related question that I never see addressed: how big of a programmer shortage do you think there would be if salaries were 50% higher? All the talk seems to assume that the makeup of industry is utterly inelastic. Fine, maybe your small company in Cleveland can't go out tomorrow and hire 10 A+ developers, but do people really not believe that if starting salary for an A+ developer was $150k, or whatever, tha…

So basically you're proposing protectionist policies to limit supply and thus inflate the price of labor (that is, you). Would you also support similar arguments for say, oh I don't know, taxi or hotel prices in the area where you live so the existing pool of taxi drivers or hotel owners can protect the income they are making?

It may be useful for you to actually read TFA, which (spoiler alert) is not by me saying that we need to screw down the number of people we allow into the country, but is rather by another gentleman who has been stranded someplace unpleasant due to the ill winds of supply and demand, and wants to transform immigration policy until he washes up someplace more suited to his temperament.
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