Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In • Hacker News Board

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#371

Post by waterlesscloud » Fri, Dec 26, 2014, 9:46 PM UTC

andrewmutz wrote: post #344

waterlesscloud wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Then your most talented citizens will go into other work and the quality provided will go down. This is really quite simple. If there's ways for the most talented to make more money, that's where they're going. The most talented aren't locked into any particular career. Sure, there will be exceptions, but the overall trend will be undeniable.

As long as Hospitals and Law firms continue to hire competent Doctors and Lawyers, this would be a win for society. More people getting health care or access to the legal system, at lower prices, would be a good thing for society. And I don't see any reason why an increase in the number of Doctors or Lawyers would cause Hospitals or Law firms to hire incompetent employees.

We actually have a surplus of lawyers right now, at this very moment. Large numbers of people with law degrees are unable to find work in the field.

So fewer people are going to law school. And this is true even at the top end. The most talented people are going into law in lesser numbers.

It's not a theory, it's actual fact.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#372

Post by kmonsen » Fri, Dec 26, 2014, 9:46 PM UTC

waterlesscloud wrote: post #331

rifung wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that it's extremely difficult to identify whether someone will excel at a job just through an interview. Even if someone really impresses everyone during the interview phase, it's totally possible that once they get hired they'll hate whatever you have them do and just do a mediocre job at it.

I'd go so far as to say the CEO mentioned in the story with their 70 "great" programmers who would hire another 30 "great" programmers... A. Doesn't really have 70 "great" programmers, certainly not 100% of their team. I just don't believe that. B. Actually needs 100 "great" programmers, and none that are just "good", in order to succeed fabulously. C. That the CEO in question could accurately and consistently identi…

Also, her can hire 30 great programmers in a few months if he pays them rely well. But of course he is not looking to do that.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#373

Post by protomyth » Fri, Dec 26, 2014, 9:57 PM UTC

First, characterizing anyone against the current H1B program as anti-immigration is a nice political tact but has nothing to do with the truth. It is a great way of framing the other side, but it is not a nice way to debate, but it is so common.

The current H1B lowers prices of IT by mostly supplying body shop consultants to American corporations. Go look at the stats of who is getting the most H1Bs and the dirty tricks they are using to assure no citizen can apply for those positions. Now that the big players have been caught illegally colluding on depressing wages this is the next step to cheapen the wage pool.

Second, the silicon valley folks could start recruiting a lot better. Since we talk about ageism[1] and sexism so much, perhaps some effort into recruiting could be spared. While we're at it, perhaps recruiting from other colleges that have programs[2].

Third, I'm all for legal immigration after all part of my family came that way, but I want the H1B program (and its hidden friends) removed. I want all the folks who came here and got degrees given first chance with NO indentured servitude to a single company. The American taxpayer had a hand in educating these students and it is high time we got value from it.

Yes, we should speed up the path for STEM folks we need, but it should not be at a single company's whim.

1) It seems like hollywood actresses have about the same career length as programmers (30 is too old, 40 and 50 are un-hireable).

2) Microsoft in the 90's made it very clear they only wanted people from the school I attended for support since we had a nice midwestern accent.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#374

Post by NhanH » Fri, Dec 26, 2014, 9:59 PM UTC

wwweston wrote: post #337

NhanH wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it isn't. For great programmers, the O-1 visa is basically a hack that we use to get in the US. It was not intended to be used that way for programmer (you can note that the criteria fits more for profile of a reasonable successful working in entertainment industry, athlete etc.) You will need to be something like a top 1% programmers, working on things that are semi-public to qualify for the O-1, but any decent (…

If the O-1 is already admitting the top 1%, then we're already closing in on solving the ostensible problem. At least inside an order of magnitude (1/5) at a naive guess, but probably much closer, in fact, if we run with two assumptions this piece rests on: (a) The small top portion of a given talent pool have exceptional intrinsic abilities that give them a power-relation advantages over the rest of the pool when it…

It's a bit more nuisance than that. As I mention, I was pulling numbers out of thin air. The main point I was trying to make is that criteria for O1 isn't applicable as a good measurement for hackers. We don't have any award for what we do, and the nature of the work is that there isn't much publicity most of the time (it's even the reverse, people who works on really haRd stuff have to be silence about them). And that's no fault of anyone, we barely know how to judge good and bad programmer ourselves.

Another point to be noted is that if you try to get the top 1%, you might get 1% of that pool (1% of 1%). As many people noted, not everyone want to come to the US. You might as well trying to get all of them

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#375

Post by thmcmahon » Fri, Dec 26, 2014, 10:04 PM UTC

danmaz74 wrote: post #108

It looks to me like the solution to the problem is simple. Just have a "high tech visa" with no number limit, but one simple requirement: The company requesting the job needs to be offering something like 150% (or 200% or whatever makes sense) the average salary of the US workforce, or in their state. This will ensure that the visa will only be offered for skills that are difficult to find in the USA (or the specific…

This is essentially how the 457 visa works in Australia. It's uncapped but you have to pay a 'market salary rate', which is either the salary of an equivalent worker in the firm, or of an equivalent worker In the industry.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#376

Post by shanusmagnus » Fri, Dec 26, 2014, 10:10 PM UTC

austenallred wrote: post #12

I really want to believe this, but I'm not sure that I do. Of course the tech companies want to hire people from overseas; being able to hire someone from India for half the cost but have them live in the US so there's some level of accountability/trust is a no-brainer. Huge new, cheap talent pool. But, if I'm an entry-level, US-based programmer, what I see are floods of cheap talent, some with questionable skills, c…

Here's a related question that I never see addressed: how big of a programmer shortage do you think there would be if salaries were 50% higher? All the talk seems to assume that the makeup of industry is utterly inelastic. Fine, maybe your small company in Cleveland can't go out tomorrow and hire 10 A+ developers, but do people really not believe that if starting salary for an A+ developer was $150k, or whatever, that we might get more high-achievers choosing CSCI majors than pre-med or pre-law?

Nobody could sanely argue that there isn't tons of talent outside the US; and maybe it would be good to bring some of it in. But I have yet to see the argument for why these companies with balance sheets that Switzerland would envy couldn't solve this problem by getting out the checkbook. Yeah, the problem wouldn't go away tomorrow, but I'm not sure that making it go away tomorrow should be the only acceptable solution. Guess what, guys: I can't hire people to come and drywall my office tomorrow at whatever price I feel like paying, either.

Put another way, there's probably a reason we don't hear about the great doctor and lawyer shortage. Not apples to apples, obviously, but maybe it's oranges to grapefruits.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#377

Post by mahyarm » Fri, Dec 26, 2014, 10:16 PM UTC

tolmasky wrote: post #311

voidlogic wrote: post #297

IMHO the real issue isn't that they many companies can't find great programmers, its that they only want great programmers who live in their locality. For many (most?) startups in the valley, if you aren't living in the greater SFO area, or willing to relocate there, they are not interested. They are dinosaurs living in the past, fighting distributed collaboration. (Which is ironic as they are technology companies).…

Warning, anecdotal data ahead: I would not want to work under remote conditions again. In my career I have worked mainly under "startup conditions". At Apple on iPhone, everyone lived in the same place and worked non stop on the product, same as when I left to start a company. On my second company, I had many remote workers. The reality I experienced is that there was at least a 2-3x slowdown. When people are on diff…

How different are the time zones?

What frustrates me about remote workers is they cluster around eastern europe or india/china with main offices in the USA. They're all hugely different time zones.

I think remote workers who are in the same time zone area as the main office, say north or south america, might work better. But I don't know because I haven't had a chance to work on that kind of team.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#378

Post by chetanahuja » Fri, Dec 26, 2014, 10:17 PM UTC

droopyEyelids wrote: post #59

grandalf wrote: post #27

If someone is smart and wants to work in the US there should be no barriers to doing so. I don't deserve any job or salary if someone else can do it better or cheaper. We are all human beings in the sense of our right to fair work and wage. Who wants to wake up in the morning and think "thank goodness some lawmaker is forcing someone smarter/better than me to live in poverty so I can have this cushy job"? PG is right…

The problem with the way you're conceptualizing the problem is that while no one 'deserves' anything, the real effect here will be to allow the owners of businesses to play people with no negotiating power off each other to lower their costs. So while you don't 'deserve' any guarantees, why do you think the owner of a business 'deserves' to be able to hire a captive employee? (They're deported if they quit, and they…

"(They're deported if they quit, and they make less money than an equivalent employee without that handicap)"

a) Neither PG's essay not your parent comment mentioned current system as the solution. Quite the opposite in fact. The current system is the problem that we're trying to solve. b) Even in the current h1b system, employees are free to quit and find another job. H1b transfers are quite easy in fact as long as the employee can find another company to employ them.

Your entire second paragraph about "power and podium to be honest... " stuff is written under the mistaken assumption that an extension of the current system is being proposed.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#379

Post by jschwartzi » Fri, Dec 26, 2014, 10:19 PM UTC

YuriNiyazov wrote: post #223

jschwartzi wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The possibility for misunderstanding is much greater too. You and your colleague might speak perfect English, but you may still have trouble conveying to them exactly what the problem is with the vibrating mirror assembly is that's causing it to wobble without just showing them. That's difficult to do over email, and a conversation of that nature can take weeks, while if you're in the same office it might take hours.

I can see how the situation you are describing works in theory, but the example you are giving is weak. Every device I own has a video camera; I am sure yours do too.

Unless your devices can turn fine/coarse adjustment knobs and handle Oscilliscope probes remotely, I might think it's a perfectly fine example. You would still need to wake up at 3am to have the teleconference, and you would need to continually be aiming your laptop at the device in question.

Additionally you would need to be able to adjust the focal range of your webcam, and it would need to be adjustable enough to pick out fine features. You might also need it to be a high-speed camera.

I don't know a lot of people whose devices have those capabilities. In that case, even a 3am videoconference is nowhere near as good as being in the same room. I've had to work with people under those conditions, and it's very difficult to convey anything other than a course of action.

Maybe 33-50% of the nonverbal communication involved in technical communication is you pointing something out to your colleague, and while it's certainly possible to do that over email using pictures, they will never have as complete a picture as you. Some things you need to see with your own eyes to understand.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#380

Post by chetanahuja » Fri, Dec 26, 2014, 10:20 PM UTC

shanusmagnus wrote: post #376

austenallred wrote: post #12

I really want to believe this, but I'm not sure that I do. Of course the tech companies want to hire people from overseas; being able to hire someone from India for half the cost but have them live in the US so there's some level of accountability/trust is a no-brainer. Huge new, cheap talent pool. But, if I'm an entry-level, US-based programmer, what I see are floods of cheap talent, some with questionable skills, c…

Here's a related question that I never see addressed: how big of a programmer shortage do you think there would be if salaries were 50% higher? All the talk seems to assume that the makeup of industry is utterly inelastic. Fine, maybe your small company in Cleveland can't go out tomorrow and hire 10 A+ developers, but do people really not believe that if starting salary for an A+ developer was $150k, or whatever, tha…

So basically you're proposing protectionist policies to limit supply and thus inflate the price of labor (that is, you).

Would you also support similar arguments for say, oh I don't know, taxi or hotel prices in the area where you live so the existing pool of taxi drivers or hotel owners can protect the income they are making?