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The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

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Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#101
post #54

I think a lot of this has to do with perception. The violence and suffering in the world, particularly overseas, feels more inescapable in the digital, high definition, always connected age. This age has gifted us perception, but not perspective.

Saved that last line in Evernote to ponder later.

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#102
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Say there's someone who wants to reduce inequality, and we ask them whether they approve of various scenarios: Situation: "People living on a certain well-off island discover a way to farm more efficiently, which means they produce 10% more food, but that technology only works on their island. Is this good or bad?" Inequality reducer: "This is bad, because that island's average income will go up while the rest of the…

You make inequality out as the result of purely economic factors, when it is as much the result of political decisions. If congress passes a tax cut for the top 1%, that increases inequality, not because some group has suddenly "found a way to farm more efficiently" or discovered a cure to Alzheimer's, but because we decided it that way. And as matthewmacleod has stated, you have constructed a complete straw man for…

At the margin, I think we both mainly want to help poor people, right? I'm just pointing out that using measures like the Gini coefficient can inadvertently reward bad behavior. Of course neither side directly wants to destroy resources, but if we're comparing national Gini numbers & policies, there's no good way to distinguish between good vs bad ways to lower it. i.e. China's Gini has been going up, but they also are pulling tons of people out of poverty - is it bad or not? I'm not in favor of inequality, but just pointing out that historically the things that have moved people out of poverty have been market based innovation (the world since 1800), not direct assaults on inequality (USSR, Chinese revolutions, cuba etc.)

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Focusing solely on wealth inequality leads to strange conclusions: The richest people should destroy productive resources But destroying productive resources (efficient water purifiers, better solar panels, computers that do more computations using less energy) would have been wrong in almost all of history - so why would we adopt beliefs now which make it right? I think it makes more sense to focus on getting everyo…

>Focusing solely on wealth inequality leads to strange conclusions: > > The richest people should destroy productive resources Where does that come from ? I can't find that quote in the linked articles.

If you judge countries externally by their Gini coefficient, countries which blow up the richest people's resources (or just stifle innovation (The USSR, 60s China)) will have a "better" number. So it's a really bad number to use, since there are evil ways to maximize it.

I'm suggesting we should use numbers like the absolute # of people in poverty, or national health, or access to education - those numbers aren't gameable and allow better solutions to rise to the top naturally (and we don't care how they go up, as long as they go up)

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Say there's someone who wants to reduce inequality, and we ask them whether they approve of various scenarios: Situation: "People living on a certain well-off island discover a way to farm more efficiently, which means they produce 10% more food, but that technology only works on their island. Is this good or bad?" Inequality reducer: "This is bad, because that island's average income will go up while the rest of the…

That's an absolute straw man - someone wanting to reduce inequality doesn't want to do it at the expense of all other considerations, which is the assumption you've made. Complaining about an increasing wealth gap does not mean that the only other option is perfect equality of wealth. Have you seen the breakdown of wealth in America? The gap between, say, the top 1% and the rest of society is staggering. The top 0.1%…

What precisely is the proper level of inequality? i.e. what is the Gini coefficient of an equal society? I've never seen it calculated. (It's not 1.0 since there are age effects, plus it's expected that immigrants will be poorer than well-established people, etc.)

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#105
post #13

Great! We're better overall than we were! No reason to rest on our laurels, though. How can we be better than we are now? Here's some areas that aren't doing too well: 1. Climate Change - We're in store for a lot of trouble over the next few decades[1]. How will we manage? 2. Wealth Inequality - The gap is widening[2]. How do we reverse the trend? 3. Gerrymandering/voter suppression - The ones in power are the ones w…

Why should I care about the relative wealth of the rich instead of absolute wealth of the poor?

Because they buy laws that favour them and increase that inequality.

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's nothing economically inevitable about spending public subsidy on the rich instead of the poor.

How did you get public subsidy into discussion anyway? I have posted a simple question. What if large asset control inequality is inevitable? Is bringing down the wealthy, so that a new class of wealthy takes over and possibly destroying large means of the assets in process benefit society? Thus far that is the biggest outcome generated by previous attempts at decreasing inequality.

>How did you get public subsidy into discussion anyway?

Consider all the wealth that comes from natural resources, often extracted from state-owned lands. Consider the intellectual property policies that create wealth out of ideas by state fiat. Consider fiscal and monetary policies deliberately aimed at ensuring the health of the financial, insurance, and real-estate sector.

That is how.

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#107
post #13

Great! We're better overall than we were! No reason to rest on our laurels, though. How can we be better than we are now? Here's some areas that aren't doing too well: 1. Climate Change - We're in store for a lot of trouble over the next few decades[1]. How will we manage? 2. Wealth Inequality - The gap is widening[2]. How do we reverse the trend? 3. Gerrymandering/voter suppression - The ones in power are the ones w…

Wealth inequality itself does no harm as long as you don't try to judge it through some ideological lense.

Surely you mean that the amount of poor people is rising. This isn't the case. Instead various political interest groups even had to fiddle a lot to produce few relative, always variable poverty definitions to keep the "poverty is rising" claim valid.

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#108
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You make inequality out as the result of purely economic factors, when it is as much the result of political decisions. If congress passes a tax cut for the top 1%, that increases inequality, not because some group has suddenly "found a way to farm more efficiently" or discovered a cure to Alzheimer's, but because we decided it that way. And as matthewmacleod has stated, you have constructed a complete straw man for…

At the margin, I think we both mainly want to help poor people, right? I'm just pointing out that using measures like the Gini coefficient can inadvertently reward bad behavior. Of course neither side directly wants to destroy resources, but if we're comparing national Gini numbers & policies, there's no good way to distinguish between good vs bad ways to lower it. i.e. China's Gini has been going up, but they also a…

> I'm just pointing out that using measures like the Gini coefficient can inadvertently reward bad behavior

Great, duly noted. When you make grand assertions about the inequality movement in the future, I suggest you do some background research and actually understand their claims first.

> just pointing out that historically the things that have moved people out of poverty have been market based innovation (the world since 1800), not direct assaults on inequality (USSR, Chinese revolutions, cuba etc.)

You need a history lesson. First of all, reducing inequality is not the same as moving a nation out of poverty (remember, technically, the US is the richest nation in the world). And secondly, look at the US in the 1930s-40s, when JFK's New Deal and WWII – not "market based innovation" – led to the largest expansion of the middle class yet. See http://spot.colorado.edu/~kaplan/econ3080/Krugman-middle.htm...

Inequality in the US is a result of decisions we have made, not because the rich have suddenly become more innovative.

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#109
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Wealth Inequality - The gap is widening In the US, yes. Globally, no. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/20/upshot/income-inequality-i...

Simpson's Paradox: within almost every country it's widening, but between countries it's shrinking.

To clarify (since Simpson's paradox really only applies when tracking the average of a single variable, not its "inequality", or standard devation):

The local increases in income inequality don't contradict global decreases because populations are mixing between countries. If an average American moves to Zambia and an average Zambian moves to America, the result is that the income gap of both nations increases, while the worldwide income gap remains the same.

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#110
It's simple, yes we might have less violence and your stats seem to make sense. However, the reason you are right is because we are being more controlled by, I don't know world bank, countries, laws. Today in Turkey they want to give the president the power to turn off the internet at will for 24 hours. There is news like this every day, ways to get more control and power over people. There are 1 million camels in Australia, the government thinks that that is to much and they pay people to shoot them. So, one milion camels is too much for a whole continent but there is nothing wrong with having 8 billion people on earth, destroying just about everything, that is ok? We have no choice in what is happening around us, most people I know would want their country to stop importing oil and find a greener alternative. This day an age that wouldn't be too hard. So why aren't we? That is not in your equation! We are destroying our oceans, atmosphere, finally the republicans are willing to talk about climate change, but all is still weight around money and cost. The monetary system is broken and it is global. One little change effects one way or the other the entire globe. If you ask me it all is hanging in a balance that is controlled by a few wealthy. And it is hanging on very thin strings these days.
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