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The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

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Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#11

Post by parasubvert »

retrogradeorbit wrote: post #5

The world can "fall apart" without people dying. For example, the ongoing currency wars. You can also have violence without death. Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib are examples. Because these people are only tortured, and not murdered, is that considered "peaceful"? And it also would depend on how far back you draw the data from. Is the Stalin famine of the 30s modern, or ancient? If we cast the data back to the 1600s, it's…

Steven Pinker has done a fairly deep study of the long run decline in violence: it is real, it is over centuries, and it is dramatic. But it is not guaranteed to last. I highly recommend his book as it provides a lot of data on the topic (and is quite a good read too).

"The decline in violence, he argues, is enormous in magnitude, visible on both long and short time scales, and found in many domains, including military conflict, homicide, genocide, torture, criminal justice, treatment of children, homosexuals, animals and racial and ethnic minorities."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Better_Angels_of_Our_Nature

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#12

Post by StefanKarpinski »

tatterdemalion wrote: post #8
retrogradeorbit wrote: post #5

The world can "fall apart" without people dying. For example, the ongoing currency wars. You can also have violence without death. Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib are examples. Because these people are only tortured, and not murdered, is that considered "peaceful"? And it also would depend on how far back you draw the data from. Is the Stalin famine of the 30s modern, or ancient? If we cast the data back to the 1600s, it's…

Indeed. Death by war has been on the decline since after World War II - the most violent war in our history? That's not exactly exciting news. The first half of the twentieth century revealed the contradiction of modernity: the terrible brutality of the industrial processes (including mechanized war) which underlay a system that on the surface had brought forth so much prosperity. The period since has been an attempt…

This is actually not entirely true. Although WWI and WWII were large spikes, death rates for many wars before the 20th century – both in terms of combatants and civilians – were significantly higher and have generally been on the decline throughout human history. See Pinker's "Better Angels of Our Nature" for a detailed analysis of this exact issue.

[1] http://www.amazon.com/The-Better-Angels-Our-Nature/dp/149151...

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#13

Post by diafygi »

Great! We're better overall than we were! No reason to rest on our laurels, though. How can we be better than we are now?

Here's some areas that aren't doing too well:

1. Climate Change - We're in store for a lot of trouble over the next few decades[1]. How will we manage?

2. Wealth Inequality - The gap is widening[2]. How do we reverse the trend?

3. Gerrymandering/voter suppression - The ones in power are the ones who draw the district boundaries[3]. How do we stop the feedback loop?

[1]: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/

[2]: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/12/12/racial-wealt...

[3]: http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/12/the-pern...

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#14

Post by aswanson »

parasubvert wrote: post #11
retrogradeorbit wrote: post #5

The world can "fall apart" without people dying. For example, the ongoing currency wars. You can also have violence without death. Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib are examples. Because these people are only tortured, and not murdered, is that considered "peaceful"? And it also would depend on how far back you draw the data from. Is the Stalin famine of the 30s modern, or ancient? If we cast the data back to the 1600s, it's…

Steven Pinker has done a fairly deep study of the long run decline in violence: it is real, it is over centuries, and it is dramatic. But it is not guaranteed to last. I highly recommend his book as it provides a lot of data on the topic (and is quite a good read too). "The decline in violence, he argues, is enormous in magnitude, visible on both long and short time scales, and found in many domains, including milita…

Seconded. Although, given the length/depth of the analysis, be prepared to commit more than one sitting to finish the book.

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#15

Post by ef4 »

diafygi wrote: post #13

Great! We're better overall than we were! No reason to rest on our laurels, though. How can we be better than we are now? Here's some areas that aren't doing too well: 1. Climate Change - We're in store for a lot of trouble over the next few decades[1]. How will we manage? 2. Wealth Inequality - The gap is widening[2]. How do we reverse the trend? 3. Gerrymandering/voter suppression - The ones in power are the ones w…

> Wealth Inequality - The gap is widening

In the US, yes. Globally, no.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/20/upshot/income-inequality-i...

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#16

Post by seivan »

Tell that to the 7000 Yezidian women in ISIS captivity marked with a price tag, paraded through Raqqa then gang-raped, tortured and starved. Forced to strangle themselves to death using scarves to get out.

Or the Female PKK/YPG soldiers defending their families being captured alive by Swedish Arabs and Somalians islamic rapists.

For them the world is falling apart.

I guess since we can't blame Israel for this it's not front-page news. But lets worry about about the lack of feminine characters in a Donald Duck video from the 70s or the apparent sexism in games.

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#17

Post by bluthru »

ef4 wrote: post #15
diafygi wrote: post #13

Great! We're better overall than we were! No reason to rest on our laurels, though. How can we be better than we are now? Here's some areas that aren't doing too well: 1. Climate Change - We're in store for a lot of trouble over the next few decades[1]. How will we manage? 2. Wealth Inequality - The gap is widening[2]. How do we reverse the trend? 3. Gerrymandering/voter suppression - The ones in power are the ones w…

> Wealth Inequality - The gap is widening In the US, yes. Globally, no. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/20/upshot/income-inequality-i...

That just makes us even more embarrassing.

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#19

Post by patronagezero »

deciplex wrote: post #9
patronagezero wrote: post #4

Yeah, your government isn't torturing innocent people, murdering others with drones and promoting riots and revolutions abroad as subversive acts of war. Your economy is doing great, and should inspire your confidence in purchasing. God Bless the US.

If you assume that most governments have been doing that to various degrees since forever, and the only thing that has changed is the degree to which the information can get out, and the ease of anonymous whistling-blowing (which still carries too much risk, however it's arguably better than it's ever been) - seen in that light, you might suppose that while things seem to be getting worse, in fact they are getting be…

Throw yourself in the 'pessimist' camp if you like, I'm merely not an optimist to the point of ignoring reality. I love watching people gasping for optimistic news, it speaks to just how hard reality is going to slap those people in the face in the next few decades.

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#20

Post by marknutter »

diafygi wrote: post #13

Great! We're better overall than we were! No reason to rest on our laurels, though. How can we be better than we are now? Here's some areas that aren't doing too well: 1. Climate Change - We're in store for a lot of trouble over the next few decades[1]. How will we manage? 2. Wealth Inequality - The gap is widening[2]. How do we reverse the trend? 3. Gerrymandering/voter suppression - The ones in power are the ones w…

the article said we should rest on our laurels?
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