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The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

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Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#91

Post by jeremyt »

tim333 wrote: post #64
ps4fanboy wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. Climate Change Unless the group think around nuclear power changes climate change doesnt stand a chance in hell. EDIT: I would be interested hearing from peoples points of view for those who are downvoting.

There are other CO2 free options apart from nuclear. If you believe solar installation is increasing exponentially a la Kurzweil then we'll soon have enough solar http://bigthink.com/think-tank/ray-kurzweil-solar-will-power... You can argue solar / wind is already cheaper and the differential is only going to grow http://cleantechnica.com/2014/04/26/wind-solar-can-generate-... Fair enough at the moment wind/solar don…

According to two very smart PhD engineers who work for Google and were assigned to look into this problem, there is no way to get there with wind and solar.

http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewables/what-it-would-rea...

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#92

Post by jessaustin »

rskar wrote: post #69
Hermel wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US, wealth inequality correlates strongly with median age over time. In a regression, raising median age can explain 89% of the raise in wealth inequality of the top 10% (my own calculation, using Picketty data, not online yet). The hypothesis behind this is that inequality tends to grow with age. Among 20 year olds, there is much less inequality than among 60 year olds. In fact, the richest even grow in wealt…

Are you suggesting that the bottom 90% of households are predominately headed by under-40 year-olds? According to payscale.com, among those with college degrees or higher, pay for men stops growing about age 48; for women, about 39. (See http://www.payscale.com/gender-lifetime-earnings-gap ) In your defence, there is this: http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/economic-intelligence/20... ; in which Joseph Mason, Moyse/…

Are you suggesting that the bottom 90% of households are predominately headed by under-40 year-olds?

Where did that come from? Clearly, Hermel was instead suggesting that the inequality in any particular age range hasn't changed over time, and that older ranges have greater inequality than younger ranges. (This could come both from some older people being wealthier than they were when young, and from other older people being poorer than they were when young.) It is a well-known demographic fact that there are more old people now than there used to be, which fact coupled with Hermel's claims would be enough to explain increasing wealth inequality.

I don't have the knowledge to agree or disagree with Hermel, but I oppose avoidable misunderstandings.

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#93

Post by jessaustin »

learc83 wrote: post #34
Animats wrote: post #33

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Martin Dempsey informed the Senate Armed Service Committee (in 2013), "I will personally attest to the fact that [the world is] more dangerous than it has ever been." Now that's surprising from the head of the JCS, and from a former commander of an armored division in combat. He's a trade-school guy (West Point), so he knows his military history. Things have been much, much worse for…

>Now that's surprising from the head of the JCS, and from a former commander of an armored division in combat. He's a trade-school guy (West Point), so he knows his military history. Of course he says that, the budget for the department of defense is in part dictated by how dangerous the public and congress perceive the world to be. Military leaders have been saying this exact same thing for centuries.

Of course he says that, the budget for the department of defense...

Yet who does Congress consult when they're considering how much to spend? It's almost as if they want to spend more money on the military...

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#94

Post by Umn55 »

diafygi wrote: post #13

Great! We're better overall than we were! No reason to rest on our laurels, though. How can we be better than we are now? Here's some areas that aren't doing too well: 1. Climate Change - We're in store for a lot of trouble over the next few decades[1]. How will we manage? 2. Wealth Inequality - The gap is widening[2]. How do we reverse the trend? 3. Gerrymandering/voter suppression - The ones in power are the ones w…

"How can we be better than we are now?" By getting informed on what is REALLY happening, i.e. if you are participating in electoral democracy, you're part of the misinformed set.

Reasoning and the human brain doesn't work the way we thought it did:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYmi0DLzBdQ

Manufacturing consent

http://www.amazon.com/Manufacturing-Consent-Political-Econom...

Most have no clue what's really going on in the world... the elites are afraid of political awakening.

This (mass surveillance) by the NSA and abuse by law enforcement is just more part and parcel of state suppression of dissent against corporate interests. They're worried that the more people are going to wake up and corporate centers like the US and canada may be among those who also awaken. See this vid with Zbigniew Brzezinski, former United States National Security Advisor.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ttv6n7PFniY

Brezinski at a press conference

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kmUS--QCYY

The real news:

http://therealnews.com/t2/

http://www.amazon.com/Democracy-Incorporated-Managed-Inverte...

http://www.amazon.com/Shadow-Government-Surveillance-Securit...

http://www.amazon.com/National-Security-Government-Michael-G...

Look at the following graphs:

IMGUR link - http://imgur.com/a/FShfb

http://www2.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/wealth.html

And then...

WIKILEAKS: U.S. Fought To Lower Minimum Wage In Haiti So Hanes And Levis Would Stay Cheap

http://www.businessinsider.com/wikileaks-haiti-minimum-wage-...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnkNKipiiiM

Free markets?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHj2GaPuEhY#t=349

Free trade?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ju06F3Os64

http://www.amazon.com/Empire-Illusion-Literacy-Triumph-Spect...

"We now live in two Americas. One—now the minority—functions in a print-based, literate world that can cope with complexity and can separate illusion from truth. The other—the majority—is retreating from a reality-based world into one of false certainty and magic. To this majority—which crosses social class lines, though the poor are overwhelmingly affected—presidential debate and political rhetoric is pitched at a sixth-grade reading level. In this “other America,” serious film and theater, as well as newspapers and books, are being pushed to the margins of society.

In the tradition of Christopher Lasch’s The Culture of Narcissism and Neil Postman’s Amusing Ourselves to Death, Pulitzer Prize-winner Chris Hedges navigates this culture—attending WWF contests, the Adult Video News Awards in Las Vegas, and Ivy League graduation ceremonies—to expose an age of terrifying decline and heightened self-delusion."

Important history:

http://williamblum.org/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcA1v2n7WW4#t=2551

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#95

Post by ps4fanboy »

jeremyt wrote: post #91
tim333 wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are other CO2 free options apart from nuclear. If you believe solar installation is increasing exponentially a la Kurzweil then we'll soon have enough solar http://bigthink.com/think-tank/ray-kurzweil-solar-will-power... You can argue solar / wind is already cheaper and the differential is only going to grow http://cleantechnica.com/2014/04/26/wind-solar-can-generate-... Fair enough at the moment wind/solar don…

According to two very smart PhD engineers who work for Google and were assigned to look into this problem, there is no way to get there with wind and solar. http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewables/what-it-would-rea...

It appears the people against nuclear power use a lot of "ifs" and "whens", nuclear is here now its cheap and its very clean.

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#96

Post by ps4fanboy »

happyscrappy wrote: post #72
ps4fanboy wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. Climate Change Unless the group think around nuclear power changes climate change doesnt stand a chance in hell. EDIT: I would be interested hearing from peoples points of view for those who are downvoting.

We could easily ditch nuclear altogether if we could find an efficient way to store power.

If

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#97

Post by bane »

hentrep wrote: post #7

This point of an increasingly peaceful world has come up repeatedly over the years, but I think there is an inherent problem in the way it is viewed. The rise of the internet and social media has facilitated glimpses into the terrible acts which humans are capable of perpetrating against one another. That combined with a biased media who thrives on shock and outrage, it's no wonder we find this data difficult to dige…

I think it's interesting in how people are readjusting their views to stop thinking of violence and misery as "normal".

This makes cases where it happens more notable.

You'll notice in countries with extraordinarily low crime rates (South Korea, Japan, etc.) that the locals don't perceive their relative safety and point to various happenings in the news as evidence.

Yet while I'm here in America, supposedly surrounded by gun violence, mass murders and other crazy nonsense. I feel no issues at all with walking by myself to the local store at night.

I've even seen opinions here on HN by non-Americans who talk in frightened tones about the violence levels in the U.S., but may come from countries that we Americans are educated to perceive as scary places.

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#98

Post by jotux »

xahrepap wrote: post #2

I wish this kind of data was frequently mentioned throughout the year in mainstream media. Continue to show the news the way they are but keep this kind of data around to jeep people "calibrated" I think would help people's perspective on the world more positive.

>I wish this kind of data was frequently mentioned throughout the year in mainstream media.

Except bad news is what people want to see and it's what makes money. If you try to shift your news reporting away from crime and gore it kills viewer/readership.

example: http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-30318261

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#99

Post by Hermel »

jessaustin wrote: post #92
rskar wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you suggesting that the bottom 90% of households are predominately headed by under-40 year-olds? According to payscale.com, among those with college degrees or higher, pay for men stops growing about age 48; for women, about 39. (See http://www.payscale.com/gender-lifetime-earnings-gap ) In your defence, there is this: http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/economic-intelligence/20... ; in which Joseph Mason, Moyse/…

Are you suggesting that the bottom 90% of households are predominately headed by under-40 year-olds? Where did that come from? Clearly, Hermel was instead suggesting that the inequality in any particular age range hasn't changed over time, and that older ranges have greater inequality than younger ranges. (This could come both from some older people being wealthier than they were when young, and from other older peop…

Exactly, thanks!

Re: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines

#100

Post by Hermel »

rskar wrote: post #69
Hermel wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US, wealth inequality correlates strongly with median age over time. In a regression, raising median age can explain 89% of the raise in wealth inequality of the top 10% (my own calculation, using Picketty data, not online yet). The hypothesis behind this is that inequality tends to grow with age. Among 20 year olds, there is much less inequality than among 60 year olds. In fact, the richest even grow in wealt…

Are you suggesting that the bottom 90% of households are predominately headed by under-40 year-olds? According to payscale.com, among those with college degrees or higher, pay for men stops growing about age 48; for women, about 39. (See http://www.payscale.com/gender-lifetime-earnings-gap ) In your defence, there is this: http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/economic-intelligence/20... ; in which Joseph Mason, Moyse/…

Thanks for your research. You are right in pointing to the difference between wealth and income inequality. My data online seems to explain the former, but not the latter. While I find my mentioned correlation between age and wealth inequality very interesting and plausible, one should should be aware of the following weaknesses of my argument:

- It explains wealth of the top 10%. It does not explain income inequality or wealth inequality regarding the top 1%.

- The correlation is much weaker in other countries.

- Inequality can corrode the fabric of society, regardless of its cause. Being able to explain raising inequality does not make it better. Or, as the Fins say: Weighing s--- does not make it better s---.

Another interesting consideration is that the working poor are often single parents. Having children outside marriage is one of the biggest risks of poverty. Thus, one of the biggest leftist achievements, namely the abandoning of traditional family values in favor of a more flexible and individualistic model, is one of the primary causes of poverty. There are many benefits of this development, but it also came at the price of new forms of poverty and thereby also increasing inequality.

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