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Why Silicon Valley Works

blog.samaltman.com

51–60 of 252 posts

Re: Why Silicon Valley Works

#51
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

sounds like it's not the place for you. a household making "only" $120k, no matter where you live, puts you in the top 15% by income in the US--hardly the "working poor" (see census data). trying to keep up with the joneses, on the other hand, can warp your sense of relative privilege. top 15% in the US is among the top few percent in the world. keep that in mind, and that'll help assuage the negative feelings that c…

You don't understand what it costs to live here. Keeping up with the Joneses means envy for new and shiny, not wanting a modest house, cars, kids, and retirement savings. And here, that means an income of $250k is tough to do -- one bedrooms in sf are $3500; condos in the peninsula sell for $700k+ and houses cost $1100/ft^2. $240k married filing jointly w/ 2 kids means $5900 hits your bank account twice a month. Esse…

To reinforce this point, here's a 2BD in the up-and-coming (e.g. highest crime-rate) Mission neighborhood priced at $1030/sf: https://www.openlistings.co/p/2558MISSIONST94110-2

Anecdotally, I know a gainfully employed senior engineer who was literally couch surfing with his wife and daughter for a month after losing their house. The excessive price of living caused by the housing shortage in the bay cannot be understated.

Re: Why Silicon Valley Works

#52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

sounds like it's not the place for you. a household making "only" $120k, no matter where you live, puts you in the top 15% by income in the US--hardly the "working poor" (see census data). trying to keep up with the joneses, on the other hand, can warp your sense of relative privilege. top 15% in the US is among the top few percent in the world. keep that in mind, and that'll help assuage the negative feelings that c…

If house prices are as bad as HN indicates I can understand how that income could put a person if not in the "working poor" then into the lower middle class.

look at this map: 2 bedrooms under $3500/mo in sf

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/sfc/apa?sort=priceasc&max...

know that competition is tight enough that if the apartments are decent, they will be rented on the spot during the showings, and often for much more than the asking price. An acquaintance was looking for months and finally got an apartment because he and his roommate offered $250/mo over asking.

Re: Why Silicon Valley Works

#53

No. The reason why Silicon Valley works is because of the intense greed that it provokes amongst everyone that comes here. Maybe "greed" is too strong of a word, because people aren't necessarily selfish, maybe "money-focused" is probably more accurate. And because anyone can come here and become a millionaire/billionaire, it draws in an immense number of hard-working people which just generally increase the level of…

SV is like the 1849 California gold rush. A few people got rich and everyone else just got dirty.

I compare it to the Klondike gold rush: most of the people who got rich did so by taking money from suckers.

Re: Why Silicon Valley Works

#54
post #28

No. The reason why Silicon Valley works is because of the intense greed that it provokes amongst everyone that comes here. Maybe "greed" is too strong of a word, because people aren't necessarily selfish, maybe "money-focused" is probably more accurate. And because anyone can come here and become a millionaire/billionaire, it draws in an immense number of hard-working people which just generally increase the level of…

What you are talking about is a new phenomenon. Silicon Valley in 2008 was different - rents were lower, and $120K with 2 kids and one income was OK. There has been a dramatic increase in rent/real estate prices in the last 6 years that has completely schewed the system and the culture. Silicon Valley has thrived in years when rents were OK, people were not greedy and yet great Companies were built. I remember going…

It isn't a new thing, it was rampant in 1998, some say it was rampant in 1982 as well.

Having lived through the dot com crash of the late 90's I have thought a lot about what went into that event. It is easy to be dismissive and "blame the suits" or the "bankers" but the reality is much more nuanced than that.

I have come to conclude that it depends on what goal is driving the bulk of the community. During a 'non-boom' the driving force is often engineers and designers who are spending all of their capital on solving a problem, or changing the efficiencies of an existing system to favor a different part of the value chain. You get a lot of folks thinking like that and eventually you get a couple of winners. That winning inspires other engineers to either work around similar spaces to see if they can replicate the success. A "wave" is started, whether it is "microprocessors", "the web", or "social media" or any other technology, it generates some success for people who get the value and can plug it into the bigger economy.

As that happens it starts generating economic value which gets translated into cash (the thing everyone thinks they understand).

That cash then attracts a different kind of person. Someone who can use cash to make more cash, they are meta-engineers if you will, playing off the second derivative of innovation, the change in cash flow over time. Their secret sauce is that they perceive the forces that are changing the cash flow and they speak to non-technically inclined folks about tapping that flow to send some cash their way. Imagine everyone in the world had gone wild for buying tulips, these people come in and find the folks who see people getting rich on buying and selling tulips, but don't understand tulips, or the attraction in tulips, and whisper that they know a farm that is growing outstanding tulips and will be harvesting soon.

What this other set of people have done, is to start influencing capital toward the 'new thing' but through their fingers. And they take a cut of course.

The truth is though that there has always been (and perhaps always will be) more capital than Silicon Valley can successfully convert into improvements into systems or new solutions to problems. And so this capital sits on the sideline until the third actor in our play arrives.

That is the person who is going to "get rich" in Silicon Valley. These people spin stories, stories that sound enticing and world changing. Stories about frictionless sharing or paradigm shifting. Stories about turning opportunity into massive shifts of economic power, political power, or both. They spin the story of changing the world, if only there was someone with the courage and the vision to back them in their quest. And at some point, that capital that is sitting on the sidelines "missing" this opportunity, sets aside the common sense its managers had and starts to make some big bets. Because everyone knows you need a lot of money to make a lot of money.

And that is where things have gone off the rails, at least twice before and perhaps now for a third time. Money begins to flow in, it goes to some great people, it sometimes knocks good projects off course, and it goes to some folks who are just good at talking. The the number of 'good' things that are happening with it, goes down quickly. When the diligence drops below the minimum sustainable level, the game board is set for some spectacular failures. And those failures are unavoidable, like a train engineer seeing a car on the tracks half a mile away, knowing it takes over a mile to stop the train, even with all wheels locked.

While I feel like I've analyzed the dot com crash enough to understand the mechanisms in play, I have yet to figure out any scheme or system which could prevent it from happening. That makes me sad.

Re: Why Silicon Valley Works

#55
post #42
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't understand what it costs to live here. Keeping up with the Joneses means envy for new and shiny, not wanting a modest house, cars, kids, and retirement savings. And here, that means an income of $250k is tough to do -- one bedrooms in sf are $3500; condos in the peninsula sell for $700k+ and houses cost $1100/ft^2. $240k married filing jointly w/ 2 kids means $5900 hits your bank account twice a month. Esse…

>>not wanting a modest house, cars, kids, and retirement savings I'm going to go out on a limb here and say most people in USA don't even have all those things.

Which really only furthers the point of discussion IMO.

Re: Why Silicon Valley Works

#56

No. The reason why Silicon Valley works is because of the intense greed that it provokes amongst everyone that comes here. Maybe "greed" is too strong of a word, because people aren't necessarily selfish, maybe "money-focused" is probably more accurate. And because anyone can come here and become a millionaire/billionaire, it draws in an immense number of hard-working people which just generally increase the level of…

SV is like the 1849 California gold rush. A few people got rich and everyone else just got dirty.

Which why the clever entrepreneur sell tools for the gold-diggers.

Re: Why Silicon Valley Works

#57
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

sounds like it's not the place for you. a household making "only" $120k, no matter where you live, puts you in the top 15% by income in the US--hardly the "working poor" (see census data). trying to keep up with the joneses, on the other hand, can warp your sense of relative privilege. top 15% in the US is among the top few percent in the world. keep that in mind, and that'll help assuage the negative feelings that c…

You don't understand what it costs to live here. Keeping up with the Joneses means envy for new and shiny, not wanting a modest house, cars, kids, and retirement savings. And here, that means an income of $250k is tough to do -- one bedrooms in sf are $3500; condos in the peninsula sell for $700k+ and houses cost $1100/ft^2. $240k married filing jointly w/ 2 kids means $5900 hits your bank account twice a month. Esse…

I pretty much agree with your point, but for those bringing in $240k as a family, after paying for rent in the most expensive area and having enough money for all your upper-middle class needs mentioned, still save at least SOME money every month. The same isn't true of most people in the rest of the country on $30-60k salaries - they're still paycheck to paycheck and often avoid doctor visits, quality food, and nice clothes.

Re: Why Silicon Valley Works

#58
post #42
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't understand what it costs to live here. Keeping up with the Joneses means envy for new and shiny, not wanting a modest house, cars, kids, and retirement savings. And here, that means an income of $250k is tough to do -- one bedrooms in sf are $3500; condos in the peninsula sell for $700k+ and houses cost $1100/ft^2. $240k married filing jointly w/ 2 kids means $5900 hits your bank account twice a month. Esse…

>>not wanting a modest house, cars, kids, and retirement savings I'm going to go out on a limb here and say most people in USA don't even have all those things.

But most people want them, and arguably deserve them.

The "kill my neighbor's cow so everything is even" is an even more toxic thought pattern than the Prisoner's Dilemma that constitutes our mainstream.

Think big, man.

Re: Why Silicon Valley Works

#59
post #22

No. The reason why Silicon Valley works is because of the intense greed that it provokes amongst everyone that comes here. Maybe "greed" is too strong of a word, because people aren't necessarily selfish, maybe "money-focused" is probably more accurate. And because anyone can come here and become a millionaire/billionaire, it draws in an immense number of hard-working people which just generally increase the level of…

Given the broad geographic footprint of the HN community, I'm curious what folks here think about how much of a role that a tolerance of failure plays in Silicon Valley's track record of supporting commercial innovation. I don't know if others agree (and it's no doubt an over-generalization), but my intuition is that commercial failure lacks the stigma in Silicon Valley that it does in most other places. Much ink has…

[deleted]

Re: Why Silicon Valley Works

#60
post #58
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>not wanting a modest house, cars, kids, and retirement savings I'm going to go out on a limb here and say most people in USA don't even have all those things.

But most people want them, and arguably deserve them. The "kill my neighbor's cow so everything is even" is an even more toxic thought pattern than the Prisoner's Dilemma that constitutes our mainstream. Think big, man.

Yeah, that thought pattern does explain much of the dysfunction in american government

   The salient fact of American politics is that there are fifty to seventy 
   million voters each of who will volunteer to live, with his family, in a 
   cardboard box under an overpass, and cook sparrows on an old curtain rod, if 
   someone would only guarantee that the black, gay, Hispanic, liberal, 
   whatever, in the next box over doesn’t even have a curtain rod, or a sparrow 
   to put on it. - Davis X. Machina, balloon-juice.com
that perfectly captures the zeitgeist of the 90s on...
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