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Bitcoin falls below $300, lowest in 11 months

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Re: Bitcoin falls below $300, lowest in 11 months

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

M-Pesa depends on the mobile carriers obtaining special licenses to operate as banking agents. AFAIK, very few countries in the developed world allow this. > don't have bank accounts and credit cards have internet and computers though. Yes. Think of "nigerian scammers". Think how easy it is to get prepaid cell phones in most of the world, etc, etc...

Most of the 'Nigerian Scammers' use public computers in cafes / lounges. Would you expect people to use public computers for BTC business? How could they possibly secure these computers against Keyloggers and other means of 'hacking'?

Oh, man...

Short answer: By not storing wallets in computers at all.

Long, technical-focused answer: Paper wallets. Hardware wallets. USB drives that boot into a read-only operating system with your keys and a BTC client. Old cell phones that can be repurposed to run btc client software... you don't need to have a computer of your own to keep a wallet. And I haven't even mentioned hosted services! There is nothing (besides government regulation) stopping shop owners who work with M-Pesa to also offer "BTC vault services": using multi-sig, any BTC deposited in an account needs to be authorized by the vault.

Longer, human-focused answer: stop thinking that the problem in underdeveloped countries is lack of access to material things. The problem with underdeveloped countries is the lack of consolidated, stable, sound institutions. The technicalities of how to use BTC (or any cryptocurrency) is not the problem, they can adapt by themselves to a new gadget. What they can't do - by themselves - is to create these institutions that the people in the developed world take for granted.

A farmer will have access to Internet (just not so fast/ubiquitous/cheap), the thing they don't have is a bank to give them decent insurance in case their crops go bad, or any one to give them credit so that s/he can finance the purchase of supplies. They will have access to smartphones (not your "premium" iPhone, but that is only 2-3 years away by Moore's Law) and they will have cell phone access. What they don't have is a government that is stable enough to guarantee the money sent directly to him is as good as the money sent through some corrupt bureaucrat, or taxed away, or inflated away.

The cool thing about BTC is how it completely disrupts the finance/banking industry. It turns a socio-economic-political problem into a technological one. It allows people who live in poor institutions to completely bypass them.

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So, to summarize: if you are an American whose only concern is to keep your money and the convenience that it is only possible due to the stable institutions that your country provides, by all means stay out of any crypto-currency. But if you'd like to live in a world where the barriers are down, with free flow of people and services and goods, then by all means take a look at BTC - not as way to get rich quickly, but as a way to make the world freer.

Re: Bitcoin falls below $300, lowest in 11 months

#102
post #100

What is preventing the Federal Reserve or any other central banks with endless supplies of liquidity, from collapsing the value of bitcoins or any other convertible currency, virtual or otherwise?

For the Fed to collapse the value of bitcoins they would have to sell lots of bitcoins. They can't do that because they don't have bitcoins to sell. The can print USD but not bitcoins.

If the Federal Reserve can print USD, and USD can buy Bitcoins... am I missing something?

Re: Bitcoin falls below $300, lowest in 11 months

#103
post #6

What are the major reasons to be bullish on bitcoin right now? Not sarcasm, totally serious. I've owned a small amount of bitcoin for a while and have followed the market from a far. This observation is highly anecdotal, but I just haven't seen many signs of serious traction over the last six or nine months (i.e. post a ton of the initial retailers partnering to accept bitcoin, Coinbase raising their monster round, e…

It's all about the roll-out, not the price. The price should naturally follow, and then to imagine scenarios you may not be familiar with, but are still real. Here are a few:

* More efficient inter and intra-organizational business systems. I am unsure of how involved academia and consulting have been with bitcoin and cryptos, but JIT payments seem like a very attractive proposition, especially with trusted partners, and especially in corporate contexts. Does your local bank have an API that allows easy funds transfers? Perhaps bitcoin can simplify the accounting function. There has to be benefits and cost-savings. CEOs may ask the question.. "we can get bitcoins, but then what?"

* As mentioned elsewhere in the thread. Adoption in Africa or some other nation: the Orkut phenomenon. It's not about doubt in the USD (also mentioned in the thread) but rather doubt in one's own currency from inflation (or some other unreliability.) This is Draper's view. I think the key is to combine bitcoin with a fiat note (or some newer crypto down the line) and reduce reliance on banks. That's the sweet spot.

* To avoid bank confiscations, eg Cyprus. Having some money is better than having money that's been largely confiscated. Bitcoin makes any nasties in government and corporations think twice. It's wealth insurance. And if/when confiscations occur, the price could rise higher than what you paid for them (but until then, it might seem like a loss.)

* I suppose bitcoin could become a type of digital backbone currency, due to it being the first (but not the last) Cc. It really depends on the roll out, which has a number of imperatives driving it. It's worth looking at various business and use cases of bitcoins, and once these start reaching larger audiences, the usage should expand.

* Online activities needing anonymity: use your imagination.

* The currency could be faster to use, but it's usable enough for above things.

Re: Bitcoin falls below $300, lowest in 11 months

#105
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the Fed to collapse the value of bitcoins they would have to sell lots of bitcoins. They can't do that because they don't have bitcoins to sell. The can print USD but not bitcoins.

If the Federal Reserve can print USD, and USD can buy Bitcoins... am I missing something?

Yeah they can buy them but that won't make their price fall.

Re: Bitcoin falls below $300, lowest in 11 months

#106
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the Federal Reserve can print USD, and USD can buy Bitcoins... am I missing something?

Yeah they can buy them but that won't make their price fall.

"For the Fed to collapse the value of bitcoins they would have to sell lots of bitcoins." tim333

Re: Bitcoin falls below $300, lowest in 11 months

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes it was. There was an Mt. Gox bot which was consistently buying bitcoin over a long period of time. The reason we know it was an Mt. Gox bot is because when Gox's API went down, the bot was still able to execute trades on Gox even though no one else could. Of course, Karpeles will never stand for his crimes, because they weren't crimes. This is just what happens in an unregulated market, and everyone who buys into…

> I'd like to know how the regular stock market deals with this. Are all stock exchanges regulated worldwide? Is there such a thing as a dishonest stock exchange? If so, how is that dealt with? Holding a stock certificate entitles you to a percentage of the profits of that company (via dividends / buybacks). So when Facebook lists on the NASDAQ, only those who have shares recognized by NASDAQ & FB have any claim to t…

The regular stock market deals with this by separation of functions. The NYSE doesn't own stocks; it's just a matching service. Mt. Gox performed the functions of an exchange, a broker, a custodian, a transfer agent, and a depository institution. In the real world, those are usually separated.

Re: Bitcoin falls below $300, lowest in 11 months

#108
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When Bitcoin becomes a pure cash equivalent, no one will care about the price. I believe that once the price becomes irrelevant, it'll trend downward Assuming world wide adoption scenario, that's mathematically impossible. People generally have some amount of wealth (most of us have it in a bank). If you have, let's say, 100 million people (a small fraction of the world really) using bitcoin instead of fiat, and, l…

The idea is that rather than hold your wealth in Bitcoin, you would continue to hold it in your local fiat, and only use Bitcoin for the payment protocol. Imagine if Paypal operated in "PPBUX" instead of local currency. Because of the large volume and high speed of transactions, PPBUX USD would not be a very important number. You would only hold PPBUX for the few minutes required to make the transaction, during which…

You missed the premise: "When Bitcoin becomes a pure cash equivalent".

Re: Bitcoin falls below $300, lowest in 11 months

#109
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reasons to be bullish on the concept? Bitcoin is a secure public registry backed by a decentralized 300k THash/s computing network (and fast growing). That alone is insanely valuable, and not just as a vector of monetary transactions. It's one building block of our decentralized future. Reasons to be bullish on the BTC/USD exchange price? That would be pure speculation. BTC seems to be now at low levels enough that i…

The network is single-purpose and costs real electricity to run. If the mining cost stays above the value of the coins mined for long enough people will start turning off their miners.

The mining self-balances; if enough miners shut off their rigs, the difficulty goes down, and it becomes profitable (or break-even) to mine again. (Mining was heavily over-invested, and it's in the ugly process of rebalancing now.) It's possible that Bitcoin will be relegated to a fringe of techno-libertarians, but it is unlikely that the network will ever disappear.

Also, the network is "single-purpose" in the sense that an ethernet cable is single-purpose: while it only accomplishes one thing, it is a building block that can be leveraged in lots of interesting ways (smart contracts, proof-of-extistence, sidechains, colored coins, etc.)

Re: Bitcoin falls below $300, lowest in 11 months

#110
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there are quite a few other currencies (with much better track records) that people will prefer before betting their money on Bitcoin. So I'm in the US. Assuming hyperinflation starts tomorrow, the only money I have, or anyone else will accept broadly enough to keep me able to exchange in the market, is bitcoin. Nobody has Euros, nobody takes them, nobody takes Canadian dollars on the boarder, and nobody would acce…

"the only money I have, or anyone else will accept broadly enough to keep me able to exchange in the market, is bitcoin" Virtually nobody really "takes" bitcoin, it just seems like they do because they are using a 3rd party service which abstracts those transactions into USD for them. How long this sort of acceptance would last if the USD tanked is left as an exercise for the reader. As goofy as I think it is that pe…

> when the power and wired networking infrastructure is no more.

There is a plethora of point to point networking protocols, and solar panels exist. If it looked like there was a chance of USD collapse, I'd go buy some, and move somewhere without anyone around to riot and destroy my stuff and stab me. Preferably somewhere that is not the US, if I could get away with it at that point.

But honestly, that won't happen, at least any time soon to even fathom worrying about it. The US economy is too entrenched in global politics and economics to just fall over because of bad fiscal policy. I mean, we have already had bad fiscal policy for forty years! What is another few decades?

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