Live data from Hacker News

The real problem with the economy is that it doesn't need you anymore

businessinsider.com

31–39 of 39 posts

Re: The real problem with the economy is that it doesn't need you anymore

#31

Interesting, thought provoking, and most likely correct general premise - followed by a bunch of incorrect correlations and details. > Clearly, more and more jobs will move from more developed nations to countries like China, and it is difficult to see how, as this process continues, the United States retains its leadership position. In fact, it seems entirely possible that the U.S. will exchange places with less wel…

When robots are making robots that make our stuff, noone will be able to buy any of the cheap stuff, except the people that controls the goods.

Labor is the only good most people have, and it's worth is declining. The previous generation could maintain the same lifestyle, doing less work. For years the rich are getting richer and the poor get poorer, but the last years the middle class is shifting to poor as well.

The more "intangible" sorts of work are only getting paid, after the basics needs are paid, and thanks to the internet people are sharing those skills for free.

Re: The real problem with the economy is that it doesn't need you anymore

#32
post #15
post #8

I think that it's impossible to rationally ignore the fact that economies seem to contort to absorb however many workers are available to it. I have yet to hear a totally convincing explanation for this, but it seems to happen.

That's what's supposed to happen. It's called Ricardo's Law of Comparative Advantage. For as long as people's labor has any value whatsoever , they ought to be employed. The real puzzle is why anyone is ever un employed.

Could it just be friction?

Re: The real problem with the economy is that it doesn't need you anymore

#33
post #11
post #8

I think that it's impossible to rationally ignore the fact that economies seem to contort to absorb however many workers are available to it. I have yet to hear a totally convincing explanation for this, but it seems to happen.

As a side note, I would be interested if anyone here can give me what they believe is the most convincing explanation. If it's more then can be explained in short (EG, wages fall until everyone is employed) , a link is great.

Not an economist, but I have recently been thinking about it. Probably there are lots of factors, but it seems to me that people are resourceful (if they are unemployed, they'll seek ways to survive/find employment). Also I think they'll tend to only have children when it seems economically viable to do so. As an example, consider coal miners (they've gone out of business in my country). I suspect as long as mining was a viable line of work, they continued having children and producing more coal miners. Now that it has gone away, there are lots of unemployed ex-miners for a while. But I suspect those who fail to find other sources of income won't have that many children, so eventually that "strain" of unemployment will just phase out of society. In the end, only those people with viable jobs survive.

Re: The real problem with the economy is that it doesn't need you anymore

#34

Interesting, thought provoking, and most likely correct general premise - followed by a bunch of incorrect correlations and details. > Clearly, more and more jobs will move from more developed nations to countries like China, and it is difficult to see how, as this process continues, the United States retains its leadership position. In fact, it seems entirely possible that the U.S. will exchange places with less wel…

When robots are making robots that make our stuff, noone will be able to buy any of the cheap stuff, except the people that controls the goods. Labor is the only good most people have, and it's worth is declining. The previous generation could maintain the same lifestyle, doing less work. For years the rich are getting richer and the poor get poorer, but the last years the middle class is shifting to poor as well. Th…

> When robots are making robots that make our stuff, noone will be able to buy any of the cheap stuff, except the people that controls the goods.

I'm not sure if you're joking or not, but the rest of the comment looks serious. Here's the standard answer:

As long as any human needs or wants are unfilled, there's a capacity for an unlimited amount of work and labor. As robotics gets less expensive, it will progressively replace unskilled, repeatable, monotonous labor.

As of yet, we're nowhere near having quality enough robotics to do abstract, creative work. Thus, more (human) work will become abstract and creative. The more mechanical, automatic, less skilled work will gradually become streamlined, mechanized, and replaced as that becomes safer and more efficient than paying people to do that kind of work.

> Labor is the only good most people have, and it's worth is declining.

Completely unskilled labor - working at Taco Bell, pressing a button every 17 seconds, unloading crates from a truck - the worth of those is declining. Skilled labor - including servicing robotics or operating a complex crane - the worth of those is slightly increasing. Knowledge work - research, biochemistry, computer programming, genetics, engineering - the worth of those is greatly increasing.

There has been and will continue to be a general shift from completely unskilled labor to skilled labor, and skilled labor to knowledge work.

> The previous generation could maintain the same lifestyle, doing less work. For years the rich are getting richer and the poor get poorer, but the last years the middle class is shifting to poor as well.

This is patently false. The average person today has twice as many possessions as the person of forty years ago. The resources, necessities, and luxuries available to people has greatly increased on the low end and slightly increased on the high end. Look at technology - what do wealthy people use online? Google for search, Gmail for email, Facebook for networking, Amazon for books, Ebay for auctions. Those are all available to anyone of any social class in the developed world. Think about computers in general - you can get a totally functional computer for web browsing and word processing for dirt cheap, almost free. This is an incredible thing. You can get a Personal Transportation Device (aka a "car") for very cheap! My 1995 Infiniti J30 was $1900, and that was a luxury car 15 years ago. It still totally gets the job done. Even the poorest people in America can buy a nice enough car, outright, in cash, for less than a month's work in a bad job.

That's amazingly marvelous. The quality of life gap is closing tremendously. The difference in goods, services, availability, and access is getting closer all the time. The wealthier are getting slightly wealthier because it's possible to leverage your good works to more people to help the world. The poor and middle class are getting much wealthier because they can transact with the people doing the best job globally at everything. Google is the best in the business, and it's available to everyone that can get online.

> The more "intangible" sorts of work are only getting paid, after the basics needs are paid, and thanks to the internet people are sharing those skills for free.

Actually, that's a good point that people are grappling with. How can we convert our skills that other people want to money? I don't have the answers on that, but I'd feel confident wagering a lot of money that there's where there's going to be a lot of growth in those areas. Creative people will find creative solutions to monetizing their work.

We're going to be seeing more writers, artists, programmers, researchers, designers (yes, the demise of design has been greatly exaggerated), and so on. Short of a brutal WWIII, I feel pretty good that my children are going to live in a much more pleasant, clean, stimulating, enjoyable world, with meaningful and interesting work to do, inexpensive necessities, and ever improving design, experience, and aesthetics of the everyday world.

Re: The real problem with the economy is that it doesn't need you anymore

#35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When robots are making robots that make our stuff, noone will be able to buy any of the cheap stuff, except the people that controls the goods. Labor is the only good most people have, and it's worth is declining. The previous generation could maintain the same lifestyle, doing less work. For years the rich are getting richer and the poor get poorer, but the last years the middle class is shifting to poor as well. Th…

> When robots are making robots that make our stuff, noone will be able to buy any of the cheap stuff, except the people that controls the goods. I'm not sure if you're joking or not, but the rest of the comment looks serious. Here's the standard answer: As long as any human needs or wants are unfilled, there's a capacity for an unlimited amount of work and labor. As robotics gets less expensive, it will progressivel…

We have more stuff than 40 years ago, but less than 20. What also changed is that many single income households are double incomes now. Or that people are working 60-80 hours a week.

15 years ago you also could buy a second hand car for cheap, but since then the gas price quadrupled. You can have a DVD player for the same price as a VCR 20 years ago, but does it really mean the quality of life has improved? Over time we also lost quite a few things, like real food or personal service.

But still you are looking at now, and more specifically to your personal situation at the moment, and not on what's happening and what the future will bring.

If cheap labor disappears a part of that group will become competitors in an already overcrowded market. And as I mentioned before, the global marktplace and internet is going to work against us. We will end up fighting over breadcrumbs, and only a very few, those with a truly unique skillset, will manage to have a somewhat decent lifestyle.

What you also forget, a big part of our current wealth is based on air. On big loans we used to pay for cheap labor in far away countries. And one day those loans will have to be paid back.

But try to imagine what would happen to your life when the dollar would become complete worthless overnight. Do you have enough goods to buy your way around, or do you still have the right skills to make a decent earning?

Re: The real problem with the economy is that it doesn't need you anymore

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, fine. But at a certain point, I can buy a replicator, print out some solar paint, and disconnect from the grid. All I need now is small amounts of raw materials to top up the inevitable losses from my recycling loop. Your large-scale production will certainly be cheaper, but it will be possible for an individual to build, say, a fully automated chip-fab given enough raw materials. So large-scale production will…

It's entirely possible to bake your own bread or grow your own vegetables today, do you do that? Food independence! I just don't see why division of labor would decrease. In the past it's pretty much always increased with growth of technology. As Robin Hanson said in "Dreams of Autarky" http://hanson.gmu.edu/dreamautarky.html : I suspect that future software, manufacturing plants, and colonies will typically be much…

Grow your own vegetables? Bake bread? That takes HOURS. But with a replicator/food printer/reprap, it's a push-button process. No work involved. Makes a difference, eh?

Ever lived in the third world? You don't have washing machines, you get your clothes washed down the street. In the first world, you just chuck them in your washer/dryer, push a few buttons, wait an hour.

See the difference we're talking here?

One way requires someone to swoosh clothes around with a stick all day. The other requires a designer, a few supervisors at the factory, an assembly line, and a washing machine repairman, all of whom ADDED TOGETHER still don't work as many hours per washed knicker as the laundry people do in the third world.

Of course we'll still be dependent on others. Do you think the average schlub will be designing his own printer templates? Nah, he'll download them from the Internet like everyone else.

Re: The real problem with the economy is that it doesn't need you anymore

#37
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Minimum wages.

Unemployment existed before those; and whether minimum wages increase unemployment should be open to empirical study - anyone got any data?

Empirical study is a tad tricky in a field where experimentation would probably be considered wildly unethical and you wouldn't be able to set up a control anyway.

Re: The real problem with the economy is that it doesn't need you anymore

#38
post #37
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unemployment existed before those; and whether minimum wages increase unemployment should be open to empirical study - anyone got any data?

Empirical study is a tad tricky in a field where experimentation would probably be considered wildly unethical and you wouldn't be able to set up a control anyway.

While presence of controls is admirable, it's still reasonable to simply look at countries that implemented a minimum wage and ask, what happened to the unemployment rate?

Re: The real problem with the economy is that it doesn't need you anymore

#39
post #38
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Empirical study is a tad tricky in a field where experimentation would probably be considered wildly unethical and you wouldn't be able to set up a control anyway.

While presence of controls is admirable, it's still reasonable to simply look at countries that implemented a minimum wage and ask, what happened to the unemployment rate?

At the very least one would note that the effects don't seem to be predictable via the basic supply & demand theories.
Post reply on HN