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The real problem with the economy is that it doesn't need you anymore

businessinsider.com

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Re: The real problem with the economy is that it doesn't need you anymore

#21

Post by antipaganda »

cousin_it wrote: post #16

> When we create devices that individuals will be able to own that will be able to produce everything that we need, the solution will be at hand. This is not science fiction. We are starting to see that happen with energy with things like rooftop solar panels and less expensive wind turbines. We are nowhere near where we need to be, but it is obvious that eventually everyone will be able to produce his or her own ene…

Yeah, fine. But at a certain point, I can buy a replicator, print out some solar paint, and disconnect from the grid. All I need now is small amounts of raw materials to top up the inevitable losses from my recycling loop.

Your large-scale production will certainly be cheaper, but it will be possible for an individual to build, say, a fully automated chip-fab given enough raw materials. So large-scale production will be instantiated ad-hoc on a needs basis.

I'm assuming that the last bastion of human labour will be creative work, since that'll have sentimental value even when the robots get better at it.

Re: The real problem with the economy is that it doesn't need you anymore

#22

Post by antipaganda »

roundsquare wrote: post #4

I'm not sure why we need to assume that we'll ride the curve all the way down before coming back up. Its true that manufacturing jobs are going to poorer countries because wages are lowered there. For now, it seems like in richer countries the jobs are being (imperfectly) replaced by services. If this can't continue (and I'm not sure if it can or can't) than wouldn't we expect wages in (currently) richer countries to…

Aha! You, sir, have hit upon the greatest reason to be optimistic about globalisation; even though the evil soulless multinationals are currently destroying good, well-paying jobs in developed nations and creating nasty, hellish, unsafe, penurrific jobs in the concrete slum-nightmares of the Third World, they have to move on to new concrete slum-nightmares every so often when the locals get too rich to endure slavery!

The key fact is this: There are a limited number of slum-nightmares to move on to! One day, the t-shirt manufacturers will find that Darfur has become too well-heeled, and look around, and curse the skies, because there's nowhere left to exploit!

And the world will be doomed to become more homogenous, more wealthy, and more high-standard-of-livingy every single day.

Mwahahahaha!

Re: The real problem with the economy is that it doesn't need you anymore

#23

Post by krav »

lionhearted wrote: post #14

Interesting, thought provoking, and most likely correct general premise - followed by a bunch of incorrect correlations and details. > Clearly, more and more jobs will move from more developed nations to countries like China, and it is difficult to see how, as this process continues, the United States retains its leadership position. In fact, it seems entirely possible that the U.S. will exchange places with less wel…

I really enjoyed your point by point take on this.

Re: The real problem with the economy is that it doesn't need you anymore

#24

Post by gort »

radu_floricica wrote: post #20
Eliezer wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what's supposed to happen. It's called Ricardo's Law of Comparative Advantage. For as long as people's labor has any value whatsoever , they ought to be employed. The real puzzle is why anyone is ever un employed.

Minimum wages.

Unemployment existed before those; and whether minimum wages increase unemployment should be open to empirical study - anyone got any data?

Re: The real problem with the economy is that it doesn't need you anymore

#25

Post by dagw »

radu_floricica wrote: post #20
Eliezer wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what's supposed to happen. It's called Ricardo's Law of Comparative Advantage. For as long as people's labor has any value whatsoever , they ought to be employed. The real puzzle is why anyone is ever un employed.

Minimum wages.

Even without minimum wage there is a price point where I'm better off not taking the job and trying to scrape out a living in a more ad hoc way.

Re: The real problem with the economy is that it doesn't need you anymore

#26

Post by dagw »

Eliezer wrote: post #15
netsp wrote: post #8

I think that it's impossible to rationally ignore the fact that economies seem to contort to absorb however many workers are available to it. I have yet to hear a totally convincing explanation for this, but it seems to happen.

That's what's supposed to happen. It's called Ricardo's Law of Comparative Advantage. For as long as people's labor has any value whatsoever , they ought to be employed. The real puzzle is why anyone is ever un employed.

Unemployed doesn't mean zero income or zero utility. If the utility you offer them for working is less than the utility they get from being unemployed they won't take the job.

There may be enough labour to keep everyone employed, but not enough of that labour has a high enough value that it's worth while for people to do it, and thus you have unemployment.

Re: The real problem with the economy is that it doesn't need you anymore

#28

Post by cousin_it »

antipaganda wrote: post #21
cousin_it wrote: post #16

> When we create devices that individuals will be able to own that will be able to produce everything that we need, the solution will be at hand. This is not science fiction. We are starting to see that happen with energy with things like rooftop solar panels and less expensive wind turbines. We are nowhere near where we need to be, but it is obvious that eventually everyone will be able to produce his or her own ene…

Yeah, fine. But at a certain point, I can buy a replicator, print out some solar paint, and disconnect from the grid. All I need now is small amounts of raw materials to top up the inevitable losses from my recycling loop. Your large-scale production will certainly be cheaper, but it will be possible for an individual to build, say, a fully automated chip-fab given enough raw materials. So large-scale production will…

It's entirely possible to bake your own bread or grow your own vegetables today, do you do that? Food independence!

I just don't see why division of labor would decrease. In the past it's pretty much always increased with growth of technology. As Robin Hanson said in "Dreams of Autarky" http://hanson.gmu.edu/dreamautarky.html :

I suspect that future software, manufacturing plants, and colonies will typically be much more dependent on everyone else than dreams of autonomy imagine. Yes, small isolated entities are getting more capable, but so are small non-isolated entities, and the later remain far more capable than the former. The riches that come from a worldwide division of labor have rightly seduced us away from many of our dreams of autarky. We may fantasize about dropping out of the rat race and living a life of ease on some tropical island. But very few of us ever do.

Re: The real problem with the economy is that it doesn't need you anymore

#30

Post by yannis »

Consider the following EU definition of a free economy:

The freedom of movement for workers is a policy chapter of the acquis communautaire of the European Union. It is part of the free movement of persons and one of the four economic freedoms: free movement of goods, services, labour and capital.

But of course is only applied within the European Union. Foreign workers can actually expand an economy - not contract it (See US, Austalia, Canada). By restricting immigration, the jobs get exported rather than stay home. Would a more permissive immigration policy by the US have kept these jobs home? I believe it would. The world now has reached a stage where goods, services and capital almost move freely but not the last resource the labour. By slowly opening the gates the world will slowly adjust to a new Global Economy.

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