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Why Is Peter Thiel Pessimistic About Technological Innovation?

danwang.co

41–50 of 155 posts

Re: Why Is Peter Thiel Pessimistic About Technological Innovation?

#41
I love the tension between the "OMG Robots will do everything, even write code!" and "Technological progress has essentially ground to a standstill" camps.

It's refreshing to see something from the standstill camp; thanks to self driving cars the former has been enjoying its day in the sun.

Especially so since it fits with a nice cultural narrative about the haves and the have-nots; the theory being that all the robots will take all the jobs and leave only a small elite to live in hyper-luxury (see: Elysium).

It's nice to see the counterpoint. There was a time (ca. 2008) where oil price rises were predicted to continue to $500/bbl or more by, er, well now. There was this crisis of resources, of which the technology to extract them had peaked... (speaking of, how can we ignore fracking?).

Anyway the bubble burst and the narrative changed. Google's self-driving car gained a lot of hype and suddenly people were worried about automation again (think of all the drivers!).

Re: Why Is Peter Thiel Pessimistic About Technological Innovation?

#42

We're close to getting cars that can drive themselves. We have cars that can detect when the brakes are locking and fix it, so that you never go into a skid. We have railroad locomotives that can tell when an axle is just starting to slip, and cut the power to that one axle, so that the wheels never slip even at full power on slick rails. We have jet aircraft engines that can report when a part is getting close to fa…

I like this take. Last century we built many amazing bodies, this century we give them brains.

Re: Why Is Peter Thiel Pessimistic About Technological Innovation?

#43
post #4
post #2

Wow, that article is a total bummer. But it seems to me he's cherry picking all of the things that haven't worked out so well, or progressed as fast as we'd like and pronouncing us a failure.... What about all the things that we didn't predict, that we DO have? We are remarkably close to self driving cars... that is awesome... Some recent breakthroughs in AI I suspect will be rippling through our civilization for qui…

Everything you cite is in or closely related to the IT sector, which is the exception. Every other sector has gone cold or even backwards since ~1970.

That's only because you're unaware of innovations that have happened in other sectors and their consequences.

In oil, there've been huge breakthroughs in fracking, horizontal drilling, and oil shale and tar sands mining. As a result, U.S. oil imports have fallen by a third since 2008 [1], and domestic crude oil production is up nearly 50%. We've pulled out of Iraq and Afghanistan because the Middle East is no longer strategically important to us, saving thousands of lives in those wars. Oil is expensive now, but the price is relatively stable, meaning that we can plan ahead for the future (like buying a fuel-efficient car instead of an SUV) instead of being at the whims of global politics.

In finance, it's now possible to get funding for an idea without being a grizzled 30-year veteran of an industry. If you have a creative project or even something plain-old crazy, you can go on Kickstarter and crowd-fund it with pre-orders. Microfinance is commonplace enough that it's driving down returns, and it's lifted millions of people out of poverty in the developing world. You can accept credit card payments with just an iPad.

In education, you can take courses online with world-leading professors at elite universities, all without leaving your living room or paying tuition.

In travel, you can take virtual tours of places you might want to visit on your computer, map out on itinerary, read reviews, and book flights, hotel rooms, and activities within minutes, again all without leaving your living room. I'm just old enough to remember travel agents. Remember when you had to drive to meet one, have only a vague idea of what country you wanted to see, take the options they give you because you don't know what else is available, and pay through the nose for all of it? The first Google-assisted trip I took, back in 2004, was a revelation, and that was before Maps or StreetView or smartphones or Kayak or Yelp or the universal ability to book things online.

Most of the time when I hear folks say "Things have gotten worse than they used to be", they don't mean "things have gotten worse", they mean "Argh, things have changed and I don't know how anything works anymore and what's my place in the world and how will I support myself and everybody else seems to be doing better than me!" Much of which is an illusion, because everybody else is equally insecure about their prospects and place in the world. But the opportunities are out there, and objectively speaking, we are so much, much better off than we were when I was a kid in the 80s.

[1] http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_...

[2] http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_a.htm

Re: Why Is Peter Thiel Pessimistic About Technological Innovation?

#44

Because we wanted flying cars and all we got was online payments.

The funny thing is, if I had to pick just one of those two, I'd definitely go for online payments.

So did everybody else. That's why we got online payments.

I wonder if much of the angst about how the future hasn't turned out the way we wanted is really "We got everything we wanted and it turns out what we wanted is this?" Markets are really good at fulfilling peoples' desires, but the problem is they fulfill people's actual wants, not what they wish they wanted. So it's like turning a spotlight on our desires and realizing that hey, we're all nothing more than human.

Re: Why Is Peter Thiel Pessimistic About Technological Innovation?

#45
Abundance; great book that's insanely optimistic about the future. Sure it cherrypicks the "what went well" part of our history, but a lot more has went well compared to a couple of failing industries.. http://www.amazon.com/Abundance-Future-Better-Than-Think/dp/...

Re: Why Is Peter Thiel Pessimistic About Technological Innovation?

#46

We're close to getting cars that can drive themselves. We have cars that can detect when the brakes are locking and fix it, so that you never go into a skid. We have railroad locomotives that can tell when an axle is just starting to slip, and cut the power to that one axle, so that the wheels never slip even at full power on slick rails. We have jet aircraft engines that can report when a part is getting close to fa…

There's also electric cars, which are basically already here and can't be stopped at this point. Solar panels, which have crossed the $1 per watt barrier a while ago.

I believe that relatively soon we'll have genetics-driven psychiatry and medicine. Depressed people won't automatically be prescribed SSRIs, but what is deemed most suitable based on their genetic profile. Nobody will need to ask you if you're allergic to penicillin or anaesthetics, those mistakes won't happen anymore.

Then there's deep neural networks. We now have computer programs that can recognize what's in an image more accurately than human beings. Domestic robots might well happen during our lifetime. They're going to be basic at first, but you can't stop progress.

Re: Why Is Peter Thiel Pessimistic About Technological Innovation?

#47
post #34
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1970 is about the end of the Apollo programme, and I presume the end of the massive government spending on science and engineering that went with it. You're right, a libertarian view of this is way off the mark.

Correlation is not causation. You are cherry picking one metric and using it to flout your point of view.

Oh I'm sorry. You're absolutely right. Hold on for just five years while I perform a study to find the correlation, then after that we can argue about the causation until we both die.

Re: Why Is Peter Thiel Pessimistic About Technological Innovation?

#48

I love the tension between the "OMG Robots will do everything, even write code!" and "Technological progress has essentially ground to a standstill" camps. It's refreshing to see something from the standstill camp; thanks to self driving cars the former has been enjoying its day in the sun. Especially so since it fits with a nice cultural narrative about the haves and the have-nots; the theory being that all the robo…

I don't think these camps are mutually exclusive. For example, I believe that Thiel is right about the past 40 years, but we are starting to get back on track again (thanks in part to Larry Page) and the next 40 years will be much more broadly innovative.

Re: Why Is Peter Thiel Pessimistic About Technological Innovation?

#49
There's a reasonable argument that the entire industrial revolution was just the result of cheap carbon, and we've been running on that ever since. The Haber Process allowed us to get out of agriculture (and thus have time to make all of these breakthroughs) and then electrification (courtesy coal/gas) got us out of having to do manual labor. So we had lots of free time! And we used that to develop transistors and MRI machines and spaceships and everything else. But the returns to that free time seem to be diminishing rapidly, and we still rely on power growth to get GDP growth.

Re: Why Is Peter Thiel Pessimistic About Technological Innovation?

#50
post #3

"I sort-of date the end of rapid technological progress to the late-60s or early-70s. At that point something more or less broke in this country and in the western world more generally which has put us into a zone where there’s much slower technological progress." I've believed for years that we entered something like a minor dark age (dim age?) on or about 1970, and that computers have become synonymous with "techno…

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