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The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

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Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#101

Post by Padding »

waps wrote: post #85
narrator wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The American perspective is to solve every problem with the military or money. We believe that violence and more money are the only effective solutions to every single problem the world faces. Original thinking just doesn't happen. A creative solution would be to temporarily halt all regulations on anti-ebola drug development and let them experiment on any willing person in Liberia who wishes to receive treatment. Th…

And who pays for the, potentially unbounded fallout from that decision ? Let's say this happens : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalidomide (First read about the advantages of the drug, then move to the crises. in particular the birth defects crisis) And please don't just say that people knowingly took the risk, read the article first to see how that played out. People won't accept the consequences of decisions made u…

I fully agree with you. This is the rational decision to make, and the best one, considering the fallibility of humans.

At the same time though, we need to realize that this is primarily about protecting the health professionals and care givers, and only indirectly the sick. (The sick will of course indirectly profit from professionals being just that - professional, but only in the "long term".)

We should have no delusions about willingly letting people die, in the name of professionalism, just to have a clean concience and the ability to claim to have done nothing wrong.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#102

Post by swombat »

pyre wrote: post #21
FollowSteph3 wrote: post #16

My fear is that we're not able to stop a simple stomach flu which is spread almost the same way, through bodily liquids, so I don't think it will be easy to stop once it hits first world countries like most people currently assume...

Wait a minute, when was the last time that the stomach flu was an epidemic?

Every winter in England there are reports of the "winter vomiting bug" aka norovirus, and people have a fair (double digits) chance of getting it. From memory over the last ten years I've caught that unpleasant virus a handful of times.

It is easily spread by sick people touching things (eg handle bars in the tube) which you then touch, before touching something that goes into your mouth. If Ebola came to the uk without major changes in behaviour it would likely infect millions of active, young people via London.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#103

Post by vfclists »

This seems to be the usual knee jerk military can solve everything response you would expect from Americans, and also African governments who are always eager for handouts from Western governments.

So you want to send the military in? Do you have any idea of the size of the area in which you would have to deploy them, coupled with the panic their presence might cause, together with the issues which would be caused by militia factions which would inevitably arise to tackle what they would rightfully see as an invasion of their countries?

What did the UN manage to do after the Haitian earthquake that the Haitians couldn't have done themselves, besides introducing cholera to the region and nearby countries?

What African countries need to do is what they would have to do if there was no possibility of outside support. In this case it is not even a question of central government intervention when it is more a question of dealing with Ebola at the local level or county / village level.

Moving infected people to centralized locations for treatment means more travel and the possibly infected relatives and carers for the ill spreading the disease more, unless they are transported by specialist units. The process of travelling to report an infection and calling for a specialist unit itself carries the risk of the traveller spreading the disease let alone the person with the symptoms.

The only way to contain Ebola is to give the families or communities of infected people the knowledge, the drugs, the equipment and the protective clothing to they need to treat themselves and the economic support they will need when they are isolated, which needs to be done at a local level. That means sustained public education via television and video, protective clothing for carers and disease detection kits.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#104

Post by Padding »

ghshephard wrote: post #95
hueving wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It's a calculated risk, sure, but I don't think the Thalidomide example is particularly relevant. It's very relevant. It shows that people are too willing to take risks with major unknowns. Where do you make the cutoff with your drug experiments? Only people that are certain to die? People with high exposure risk? People that are having difficulties recovering? Any selection you pick there is completely arbitrary be…

"Where do you make the cutoff with your drug experiments? " I don't know where you make the cutoff, but I'm comfortable saying that its somewhere below having a disease with a 50% mortality rate in under 14 days. I'm pretty much okay taking any risk at that point.

You didn't get the point of the argument.

What do you do when something with 51% mortality in 15 days comes up? And then something with 49% in 13 days .. where do you draw the line? And what do you do when people continue to cry out?

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#105

Post by icelancer »

joe_the_user wrote: post #60
s4sharpie wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article references having burial specialists. This would require certain people having the right to take deceased corpses and burying without regard for the family/tribal/religious requests/requirements etc. This would at the very least be seen as impinging on the rights of the family, it would likely need armed support. If these burial specialists were say American, they would NOT be deployed without American ar…

Well, Liberia does have Liberian burial specialists now, who do what you describe and it indeed is probably the most awful job in the world. Indeed, the Liberian government, with varying levels of competence, has attempted to do most of what you describe. Essentially, there's no evidence, no indication that the Liberian state would resist UN or US aid but also very little evidence of such aid. If anything, the Liberi…

> no evidence, no indication that the Liberian state would resist UN or US aid

It is not official action that the parent commenter is referring to. Individuals themselves could treat actions they see as counter to their religion and belief as very hostile.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#106

Post by techdragon »

joe_the_user wrote: post #78
techdragon wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is more than just a supply issue. http://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/update... "One of the patients hospitalised at the HGR Boende had managed to escape before being recovered by the services deployed to the field." That is why if this situation escalates we will need people with guns, both medical and security personal with full Biological Warfare training and equipment. We are staring at a d…

Uh, that's exactly the supply issue. I have read a number of reports of that incident. The guy escape because he was starving - he went immediately to the market to buy food. If he had food in the isolation ward, that wouldn't have happened (or would be a good deal less likely). And uh, the idea of shooting people infected with Ebola shouldn't be first or second resort considering you would be straying their infected…

Yes, the man was starving, but thats also another thing the military forces are good at, supply chains. Also, the idea of having armed security forces, is less about shooting people with regular ebola, I do try to point out in my other comment that I'm in favour of armed forces when talking about a hypothetical airborne ebola strain.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#107

Post by zvrba »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #23

Going 'meta' for a moment, this is a tragedy of huge proportions, the question I have been considering is whether or not it is even possible to avoid? Updates from MSF which highlight the level of mistrust and superstition amongst the infected population, where people hide their sick relatives from isolation wards and take them back to their village. We cannot exactly put a giant fence around the place (and not that…

Related; an example of efficient government action: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_outbreak_of_smallpox_in_Yu...

Somehow I don't believe that an action like this is possible in a democracy :/

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#108

Post by Padding »

Afforess wrote: post #81
lotsofmangos wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ethical theory is not much use once you are dead.

All of the world religions disagree with you.

That you have been downvoted is very telling of the crowd that CS people are. We pretend to be all rational professionals on our high horses, decorated with degrees and what not..

And yet, when something manages to hit us on an emotional level we falter.

What Afforess said is a statement of fact and relevant to the discusssion. Thus it's a valid counterpoint.

You may not like it and you may not agree with it .. you may even discard sprituality as a whole .. but none of it makes the satement any less true.

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#109

Post by djcapelis »

zachrose wrote: post #55
ChuckMcM wrote: post #23

Going 'meta' for a moment, this is a tragedy of huge proportions, the question I have been considering is whether or not it is even possible to avoid? Updates from MSF which highlight the level of mistrust and superstition amongst the infected population, where people hide their sick relatives from isolation wards and take them back to their village. We cannot exactly put a giant fence around the place (and not that…

It's a very important question, but I wonder how accurate and widespread this picture of West Africans is. Practically, I am concerned that there aren't enough treatment/care resources for those that want them.

That is documented fact in Liberia right now, especially in Monrovia.

This release from WHO sharply highlights this issue: http://who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/8-september-2014/en/

Re: The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings

#110

Post by kijin »

swombat wrote: post #99
kijin wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> forcing them to stay in their village violates their basic human rights Better-informed villages, towns, and cities have every right to refuse to admit, or interact with, individuals from superstitious villages. Self-defense is a powerful right, and I'd say it easily trumps a potentially infected person's right to visit a cousin. People are free to die for their beliefs, whether such beliefs are true or not. But th…

That sounds reminiscent to what happened during the Black Death. Unfortunately, it doesn't sound like it worked particularly well, considering the Plague still took a sizeable percentage of the human population at the time.

Villages that quarantined themselves during the Plague were left completely to their own devices. Back then, you couldn't even try to communicate with other villages without risking the messenger's life.

Today, outsiders can airlift food, clean water, and medical supplies to any isolated village that asks for help. So let's stop wasting resources on people who don't want to be helped, and focus on people who actually are desperate for help.

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