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Germany Fights Population Drop

nytimes.com

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Re: Germany Fights Population Drop

#71

Post by Balgair »

I'm currently mired in biology and I think an interesting point can be made. We talk of 2 types of reproducers: R and K[0]. R is cockroaches; have just thousands of babies. K is Blue Whales; have 1 or 2 and nurture the hell out of them.

It seems that in the 1800s, we were more R type than we are today. We had lots of children (though not thousands) and weren't all that concerned with education, welfare, or health as to each one. At least in comparison to today.

Now, we seem to be much more K type. We take care of our children to an incredible degree. Mortality is very anomalous in child birth, it is rare in the 1st world to encounter an illiterate person, all but the true wackos get vaccines, etc. As a consequence, it takes a lot of time and resources to raise a child. Heck, we are even talking about the 20's being years of 'extended adolescence'[1]. I don't know if this is a mistake of correlations and causation, but they sure do seem linked.

http://www.gapminder.org/

Hans Rosling's TED talks are just so good here for extra material too.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R/K_selection_theory

[1] http://www.primermagazine.com/2013/live/wasting-your-20s-wit...

Re: Germany Fights Population Drop

#72

Post by cyphunk »

thejdude wrote: post #59
lkrubner wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you honestly feel that, in the entire nation of Germany, there are no families that are constrained primarily by money, when considering how many children to have? Given the way population tends to accumulate over time, you only need to convince 15% of those women who have already given birth to have 1 extra child, to raise Germany's birth rate back up to the replacement level. The question then is, are there thos…

Children have always been expensive, haven't they? But I think that's more of a cultural issue - people prefer consumption to investing in raising kids. And working children don't usually bring in lots of money, but back in the day they would care for their elderly parents, which was a good reason to have kids. I think it's not mainly about money (why do Germany's academics have the fewest children?), but about creat…

> I think it's not mainly about money (why do Germany's academics have the fewest children?), but about creating a children-friendly climate and a culture where raising children is considered a good thing and not just a burden that keeps you from consuming. Children and modern consumer culture - bad fit.

The cost to give birth is multiple times lower than somewhere like the US, the cost to raise again multiple times lower than the US, children are given much greater independence (freedom of movement and choice comes much earlier). Granted somewhere such as the US with an increasing rather than decreasing population, has little incentive to create a child-friendly climate. In Germany however this problem has made it very child friendly.

Second, the comment on "consumption" is a critique that may apply to humanity as a whole but largely German is very low in the list of OECD countries when it comes to economies based on consumption.

Re: Germany Fights Population Drop

#73

Post by funthree »

kuschku wrote: post #68
funthree wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Generalizing is what demographers do. Generalizing based on nationality is not wrong. You are an outlier.

And here on this computer are 4 Germans sitting who also do NOT agree with your opinion – stop saying this xenophobic bullshit.

I am generalizing for the people who don't have families because they see Germany being handed over to foreigners in the future. You do not agree with my opinion? That is fine.

But it is not xenophobic to say that people want to keep German families German. Did you know that China has less than a million immigrants in the entire country? Maybe it is time you respect your people, too. Your group of 4 sounds like some xenophile party.

With this article we have the sexual relations of Germans strewn about and we are expected to just sit back and let the whole world morph the demographics of a nation they aren't a part of. I don't agree with it.

Re: Germany Fights Population Drop

#74

Post by Mithaldu »

kuschku wrote: post #66
pjmlp wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As Portuguese living in Germany the way day care and primary schools work always surprised me. We have lots of bad things, specially in the current times, but I would say day care options in Portugal are way better for working parents. Having the option to drop the children between 8 am and 6pm is already a big help.

German here, living in the suburbs of a 250k people city, and I got 4 daycares within walking distance, which each provide care between 7am and 4pm – which is enough, as the average German only works from 8 to 14 (6h/day).

Another german here who's lived in Stralsund, Berlin, Darmstadt, Hannover. I know exactly nobody who has a full and/or decently-salaried position and can get by with 6 hours a day. The norm is 8 hours, 30 minutes, due to the mandated lunch break.

Re: Germany Fights Population Drop

#75

Post by thejdude »

cyphunk wrote: post #72
thejdude wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Children have always been expensive, haven't they? But I think that's more of a cultural issue - people prefer consumption to investing in raising kids. And working children don't usually bring in lots of money, but back in the day they would care for their elderly parents, which was a good reason to have kids. I think it's not mainly about money (why do Germany's academics have the fewest children?), but about creat…

> I think it's not mainly about money (why do Germany's academics have the fewest children?), but about creating a children-friendly climate and a culture where raising children is considered a good thing and not just a burden that keeps you from consuming. Children and modern consumer culture - bad fit. The cost to give birth is multiple times lower than somewhere like the US, the cost to raise again multiple times…

While most of US population growth is AFAIK due to immigration, and traditional WASP families have a rather low growth these days, that used to be different, due to cultural differences. Germany has been low pop-growth for a long time now (also excluding some immigrants).

Still, I think consumer culture is what's keeping growth low, in most industrialized countries these days. (I may be wrong.) I'm not sure how high or low Germany's consumption level is in absolute numbers, but I think it might look low because the country is producing/exporting so damn much.

Re: Germany Fights Population Drop

#76

Post by thejdude »

rmrfrmrf wrote: post #65
thejdude wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Children have always been expensive, haven't they? But I think that's more of a cultural issue - people prefer consumption to investing in raising kids. And working children don't usually bring in lots of money, but back in the day they would care for their elderly parents, which was a good reason to have kids. I think it's not mainly about money (why do Germany's academics have the fewest children?), but about creat…

> I think it's not mainly about money (why do Germany's academics have the fewest children?), but about creating a children-friendly climate and a culture where raising children is considered a good thing and not just a burden that keeps you from consuming. This is so interesting; I was thinking about this exact problem (consumerism vs. child rearing) the other day after noticing some anti-child undertones on Reddit.…

Well, on one point I do agree: you should have your life/finances sorted out (meaning: positive cash flow, enough to raise kids) before you have kids. Everything else is just irresponsible.

Generally, it's a personal decision. However, consumer people might well remove themselves from the gene pool this way. The problem is that their culture is everywhere, and all kids catch that virus in school ("mom/dad, Timmy has a PS4, when do we get one?", "I also need to collect all Pokemon, or I'm not cool.") and want to grow up to be models/popstars/celebs or other meaningless things. Here's hoping my (future) kids will grow out of that phase quickly.

Re: Germany Fights Population Drop

#77

Post by cyphunk »

thejdude wrote: post #75
cyphunk wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think it's not mainly about money (why do Germany's academics have the fewest children?), but about creating a children-friendly climate and a culture where raising children is considered a good thing and not just a burden that keeps you from consuming. Children and modern consumer culture - bad fit. The cost to give birth is multiple times lower than somewhere like the US, the cost to raise again multiple times…

While most of US population growth is AFAIK due to immigration, and traditional WASP families have a rather low growth these days, that used to be different, due to cultural differences. Germany has been low pop-growth for a long time now (also excluding some immigrants). Still, I think consumer culture is what's keeping growth low, in most industrialized countries these days. (I may be wrong.) I'm not sure how high…

the idea of consumption as a stint to growth i could relate to from the perspective of: cultures more consumed with self give less reason for growth. From another perspective: in a society that worships the self child-bearing is a product of boredom or issues with self-confidence? But it just doesn't fit entirely.
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