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Germany Fights Population Drop

nytimes.com

61–70 of 77 posts

Re: Germany Fights Population Drop

#61

> “If you look closely at the numbers, what you see is the higher the gender equality, the higher the birthrate,” I think that's exactly backwards. Afghanistan has the highest birthrate. The less gender equality, the higher the birthrate. You get astronomical birthrates in the Hasidim and Islamic parts of Africa where women hold a subservient place to their husbands and have a constrained gender role. The Nazis had s…

On the other hand, we could imagine, given the kind of occupations we can dedicate ourselves to productively nowadays, that the "professionnal" and economic environments wouldn't be detrimental to the birth rate and the families.

Basically, if you work not because you need it, but because you have something to contribute, you should be able to do that while raising a family at the same time.

Ie. I think that citizen revenue would help greatly in this aspect.

Re: Germany Fights Population Drop

#62
post #7

German here. The initiative to provide a kindergarden for every child is quite a failure. It was decreed by the federal govt that every city (i.e. local govt) has to provide enough resources, but there simply aren't enough kindergarden workers for that (and not enough money to get more people to do that badly paid job). As I see it, it was just an easy way to gain votes. It's easy to pass laws that your own governmen…

Coming from the US, the idea that kindergarten is not required seems odd to me. I was going to say that kindergarten is required here in the US, but I thought I should double check that just to be sure. I was pretty surprised by the results. Only 16 of the 50 states require kindergarten as part of the mandatory (compulsory) education [1]. The state where I went to school doesn't require kindergarten, but my very very…

Funny that you say that, since the USA is a country where in many states even school is not mandatory. Why should kindergarten be?

In Germany school is mandatory until you're 16 (if I'm not mistaken), but kindergarten is completely optional. Most people - if they can afford it - would send their kids there, though, because it gives them (the parents) more time off, and it's good for the kids to spend some time with other kids.

There are public and private kindergartens here (same with schools), and for the public ones the price depends on the parents' income. It seems that the costs vary by county and by the number of kids you have (as an example I found this page: http://www.netmoms.de/magazin/kinder/kindergarten/kosten-fue... ). Looks incredibly cheap (I'm honestly surprised), so maybe it's time to plan for some offspring.

Re: Germany Fights Population Drop

#63

> “If you look closely at the numbers, what you see is the higher the gender equality, the higher the birthrate,” I think that's exactly backwards. Afghanistan has the highest birthrate. The less gender equality, the higher the birthrate. You get astronomical birthrates in the Hasidim and Islamic parts of Africa where women hold a subservient place to their husbands and have a constrained gender role. The Nazis had s…

I think a number of these countries practice polygamy widely. Polygamous societies tend to have a higher birthrate.

Re: Germany Fights Population Drop

#64
I think at this point it is pretty clear that the dramatic population decline in Europe (started late 20th century but has accelerated since the 60s) is not something that can be solved by money nor does it seem to have to do with life style choices (the first and second world war did not do much to change the overall trend[1]).

One fascinating book I read a couple of years ago compared Western European nations with each other vs the "European counterparts that settled America", i.e. the Caucasians in North America. It's interesting that in this particular comparison America (main difference: less social welfare, more individualism, more religion) still has the highest of all ethnic Caucasian birthrates approx. 2.4 [2]

One economist's work that is very interesting to follow on this topic is Gunnar Heinsohn[3] who publishes his findings in intriguing essays usually backed by a lot of statistics and numbers.

But back to the article: the whole topic raises a couple of important fundamental questions: What do you mean by "Germany's" birth rate plummeting? The population overall, of course, has been steady for the most part and was recently admitted publicly by the ministry of federal statistics (a few years back) [4] Germany itself will be a majority Muslim country by 2050. So the population itself will probably not change or not much, it will rather turn into a different cultural entity, one with a small and shrinking "original" ethnic group (similar to the Japanese, for instance) but being replaced by a (mainly) Turkish/Middle Eastern cultural group that will incorporate their own beliefs and traditions into the aging German society and probably eventually dominate it (it is, after all, just a number's game). It's also not really a workforce problem as the article alluded - some here have already pointed out increases in productivity and automation that might offset these issues. The whole notion of population decline is inherently a cultural/ethnic question IMHO - even if a desire to shrink the population to improve the quality of life is your goal and immigrant birth rates fall over time: the fact of the matter remains this that you might be looking at a new "Voelkerwanderung" and all that comes with it.

Personal anecdote: I used to work for an IT company in Germany about 10 years ago - I had roughly 40 co-workers in an age-range of 20 to 40 (I was 25 at that time). I was the only one with 2 kids - nobody else had kids! Zero. My colleges had dogs, cars, expensive vacations and lived for the most part in those parts of town that shielded them nicely from the mass immigration taking place in what they called "(immigrant) ghettos". The life style benefits were non-negotiable for most of them but left not much for kids either (taxation is tough if you have to fund healthcare and mass immigration :-). The girls were brought up to loathe the idea of being a mother (and all the single mothers at the edge of society were an effective warning sign). So they were all headed for their careers, making it near impossible to have their first child before the age of 30-35. Not much time left after that. The climate in the bigger German cities that attract all those young and bright Germans looking for work is quite detrimental to raising children as well: very often our experience was that kids were seen as nuisance (in the US we had quite the opposite experience which might be one reason for the difference in birth rates - the US provides (in many emotional daily interactions) a way more supportive place to raise children than Western Europe).

At this point, sadly, it seems to me that population growth is linked to (a lack of) education and / or religious indoctrination. It does not seem to make much of a difference when some European countries pump millions into their social projects to support families (Sweden, France) or when they do not (Germany, Britain) - the birth rate decline is almost the same for all of these countries (again, I am talking native population, not immigrants) [5].

Conclusion: Religion might be one(?) way that natural selection ensures a population's continued growth - I like to be proven wrong, but I can't think of a nation where the growth rate is high and Atheism and Enlightenment reigns the day. A positive outcome would be a gently declining population overall on planet Earth that becomes supported by automation and a growing population on Mars while leaving violent fanaticism in the past...

--- [1] http://www.trykkefrihed.dk/interview-a-continent-of-losers.h... (could not find a better one, but there are numerous essays describing his theory of "youth bulge" on the web [2] http://www.pop.org/content/fertility-decline-in-western-euro... [3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gunnar_Heinsohn [4] http://www.lifesitenews.com/news/german-population-plunge-ir... [5] http://www.pewforum.org/files/2012/07/MDII-graphics-webready...

Re: Germany Fights Population Drop

#65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you honestly feel that, in the entire nation of Germany, there are no families that are constrained primarily by money, when considering how many children to have? Given the way population tends to accumulate over time, you only need to convince 15% of those women who have already given birth to have 1 extra child, to raise Germany's birth rate back up to the replacement level. The question then is, are there thos…

Children have always been expensive, haven't they? But I think that's more of a cultural issue - people prefer consumption to investing in raising kids. And working children don't usually bring in lots of money, but back in the day they would care for their elderly parents, which was a good reason to have kids. I think it's not mainly about money (why do Germany's academics have the fewest children?), but about creat…

> I think it's not mainly about money (why do Germany's academics have the fewest children?), but about creating a children-friendly climate and a culture where raising children is considered a good thing and not just a burden that keeps you from consuming.

This is so interesting; I was thinking about this exact problem (consumerism vs. child rearing) the other day after noticing some anti-child undertones on Reddit. Some themes I saw were workplace discrimination toward women in their 20's ("Why should I have to pay to train a female employee when she's highly likely to get pregnant and leave? I'd rather just hire a male."), shaming parents experiencing financial hardship ("It doesn't matter if you got cancer; you should have accumulated more savings before deciding to have kids!"), and an overall positive view of a child-free lifestyle ("All of our friends with kids are poor now -- I'm happy without kids so I can buy whatever games and gadgets I want.").

I just find it weird that people can forego such a defining element of any life form (reproduction) for the sake of consuming more "things". To take it to the extreme, could consumerism lead to the end of the human race?

Re: Germany Fights Population Drop

#66
post #42

This is an editorial comment disguised as objective reporting: "But bogged down with failed banks and dwindling budgets, few are in any position to do anything about it." The reasoning is something like "We can not save ourselves from collapse because we are collapsing." This is not a serious line of reasoning. Whenever people are faced with 2 problems, they need to make a decision about which problem is more urgent.…

As Portuguese living in Germany the way day care and primary schools work always surprised me. We have lots of bad things, specially in the current times, but I would say day care options in Portugal are way better for working parents. Having the option to drop the children between 8 am and 6pm is already a big help.

German here, living in the suburbs of a 250k people city, and I got 4 daycares within walking distance, which each provide care between 7am and 4pm – which is enough, as the average German only works from 8 to 14 (6h/day).

Re: Germany Fights Population Drop

#67
post #8
post #6

"Demographers say that a far better investment would be to support women juggling motherhood and careers by expanding day care and after-school programs." In college I had a professor from East Germany that talked about this. The communists did a lot of things wrong, but one thing they got right was an impressive support system for working parents. The preschools and child care programs were excellent, and women were…

Right. Not just maternity leave, but general parental leave: Don't focus entirely on one gender, with the assumption that either gender is necessarily more focused on raising children. Allow single fathers to raise kids as well, without stigma or handicap, by making everything more available to all. This dovetails nicely into marriage equality, which I don't know if Germany has yet, but I know it will if it temporari…

In Germany men can also go into maternity leave, so yeah, we got that.

Re: Germany Fights Population Drop

#68
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Every German will upvote this comment Please stop generalizing people using their nationality. I am a German and I certainly do not agree with your views.

Generalizing is what demographers do. Generalizing based on nationality is not wrong. You are an outlier.

And here on this computer are 4 Germans sitting who also do NOT agree with your opinion – stop saying this xenophobic bullshit.

Re: Germany Fights Population Drop

#69
post #66
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As Portuguese living in Germany the way day care and primary schools work always surprised me. We have lots of bad things, specially in the current times, but I would say day care options in Portugal are way better for working parents. Having the option to drop the children between 8 am and 6pm is already a big help.

German here, living in the suburbs of a 250k people city, and I got 4 daycares within walking distance, which each provide care between 7am and 4pm – which is enough, as the average German only works from 8 to 14 (6h/day).

The only people I know that are able to do a 6h/day are working in part-time.

Re: Germany Fights Population Drop

#70
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> while the mother returns to work But why? I'm young and child-less, so I'm not speaking out of experience, but I really see no reasons why we should be encouraging people to be able to work while having kids . Instead, I think we should enable them to not work and have kids . 50 years ago, it was more than possible to sustain a family with only a single working parent. Nowadays, this doesn't seem even remotely poss…

This times a hundred. My sister stays home to care for her children and people in our area(DC) act like it's unbelievable. Edit: or worse, they assume she is barefoot and pregnant and chained to the stove. I wouldn't have children with someone unless one of us was willing to take care of the children AT LEAST until school age. I don't think it's evil or sinful or anything to put your kids in daycare, but I am very ve…

The problem is that when a parent drops out of the workforce for 5 years-7 years (until the kid[s] are old enough for school), it's very difficult to just come right back in. This is why most people don't quit their jobs once they have kids.
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