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Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)

paulbuchheit.blogspot.com

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Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)

#21

Post by lionhearted »

iron_ball wrote: post #20
lionhearted wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sure, if you tank a startup, you likely lose only your investment, and you'll probably learn a lot. Problem is, you've also just spent N years of your life doing little but working like crazy. If you're lucky, you've got about 80 years to enjoy on this planet. You've got about 15 of those as a young adult. How much are they worth? I have recently come to the thinking that a life in search of fun and happiness leave…

intense focus on a cause you deem worthy Such as, to pick a startup at random, online ticket sales? Is that -- by itself, without any consideration of reward or profit -- worth the sacrifice? The answer for this, and for 99% of other startups, is HELL NO.

Business is just problem solving. It's like playing a slow paced, higher stakes video game that you get real money for beating instead of virtual money. Now, it's more complicated than even a complicated game, and the rules or winning conditions aren't always clear. But once you get acclimated, there can be a sublime beauty and enjoyment to doing almost any sort of business.

Smart people who don't initially like the more persona-driven types of business often become the best businessmen. Engineers, etc - business is just critical thinking, and getting it done. I've found enjoyment in many types of business, and just "doing business" (solving problems) is a right good time.

Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)

#22

Post by dejb »

timr wrote: post #9

I think about outcomes rationally, but these days, I tend to think about opportunity cost a lot more intently. Sure, if you tank a startup, you likely lose only your investment, and you'll probably learn a lot. Problem is, you've also just spent N years of your life doing little but working like crazy. If you're lucky, you've got about 80 years to enjoy on this planet. You've got about 15 of those as a young adult. H…

I agree opportunity cost is important but you don't really have the option of not 'spending' your time anyway. So you need to evaluate the different ways you could spend that time otherwise you will just waste it. Maybe you'd want to give a higher weighting to fun and person fulfilment than just money, but the process described in the article would still work for this.

The main problem I can see is not giving enough weight to the most likely average cases.

Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)

#23

Post by dhimes »

lionhearted wrote: post #19
timr wrote: post #9

I think about outcomes rationally, but these days, I tend to think about opportunity cost a lot more intently. Sure, if you tank a startup, you likely lose only your investment, and you'll probably learn a lot. Problem is, you've also just spent N years of your life doing little but working like crazy. If you're lucky, you've got about 80 years to enjoy on this planet. You've got about 15 of those as a young adult. H…

> Sure, if you tank a startup, you likely lose only your investment, and you'll probably learn a lot. Problem is, you've also just spent N years of your life doing little but working like crazy. If you're lucky, you've got about 80 years to enjoy on this planet. You've got about 15 of those as a young adult. How much are they worth? I have recently come to the thinking that a life in search of fun and happiness leave…

One of the problems people have is confusing happiness and pleasure. They are not the same. For instance, some of the things that give us great pleasure can cause us to be quite unhappy, and some of the things which are unpleasant help us be happy.

Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)

#24

Post by jamesbritt »

timr wrote: post #9

I think about outcomes rationally, but these days, I tend to think about opportunity cost a lot more intently. Sure, if you tank a startup, you likely lose only your investment, and you'll probably learn a lot. Problem is, you've also just spent N years of your life doing little but working like crazy. If you're lucky, you've got about 80 years to enjoy on this planet. You've got about 15 of those as a young adult. H…

"You've got about 15 of those as a young adult. "

I'm in my 30th year as a young adult. I plan on keeping it up for another 30.

I am my inner child. :)

Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)

#25

Post by californiaguy2 »

lionhearted wrote: post #21
iron_ball wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

intense focus on a cause you deem worthy Such as, to pick a startup at random, online ticket sales? Is that -- by itself, without any consideration of reward or profit -- worth the sacrifice? The answer for this, and for 99% of other startups, is HELL NO.

Business is just problem solving. It's like playing a slow paced, higher stakes video game that you get real money for beating instead of virtual money. Now, it's more complicated than even a complicated game, and the rules or winning conditions aren't always clear. But once you get acclimated, there can be a sublime beauty and enjoyment to doing almost any sort of business. Smart people who don't initially like the…

At the risk of sounding crude, I experimented with all sorts of drugs and sex in college, but the best high I've found yet is scoring business.

Maybe I am a money loving robot, but that's my position on the matter.

Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)

#26

Post by yters »

Another thing ppl dont do is think about their historical peer group. In their immediate peer group what they are doing might be considered daring and pushing the boundaries. But, they don't stop to consider that such things have been done innumerable times before, and they are in good company.

Plus, I'd rather use my life on some fringe theory with potential high payoff (intelligent design) than stick with the crowd. I'm only one life out of billions, and most don't take the risk to expand humanity's horizons, and most spend their lives pursuing pleasures. So, I'm not hurting anything by being risky, and the potential loss of pleasure is only one iota out of a vast sea of pleasure experienced throughout the ages.

Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)

#27

Post by daniel-cussen »

timr wrote: post #16
daniel-cussen wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've got about 15 of those as a young adult. How much are they worth? Most people have a shitty time their whole lives. Most people in history would dream of spending a year the way adult Americans do/did. My plan is to enjoy college and then dive into a startup.

Ignoratio elenchi. I'm not suggesting that you do nothing with your life, just that you have to weigh the alternatives carefully. (But as an aside, even today a huge percentage of the world's population lives in squalor. If this is your true concern, then I assume that you're going to address it with your startup? Otherwise, your argument is simply a justification for martyrdom. Noble perhaps, but not necessarily use…

>You've got about 15 of those as a young adult. How much are they worth?

This is not my main concern, it's just something I'm aware of. Really, I meant that the way Americans live is plain awesome compared to most anybody most anytime, and that the latter is the norm.

Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)

#28

Post by daniel-cussen »

timr wrote: post #16
daniel-cussen wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've got about 15 of those as a young adult. How much are they worth? Most people have a shitty time their whole lives. Most people in history would dream of spending a year the way adult Americans do/did. My plan is to enjoy college and then dive into a startup.

Ignoratio elenchi. I'm not suggesting that you do nothing with your life, just that you have to weigh the alternatives carefully. (But as an aside, even today a huge percentage of the world's population lives in squalor. If this is your true concern, then I assume that you're going to address it with your startup? Otherwise, your argument is simply a justification for martyrdom. Noble perhaps, but not necessarily use…

>You've got about 15 of those as a young adult. How much are they worth?

This is not my main concern, it's just something I'm aware of. Really, I meant that the way Americans live is plain awesome compared to most anybody most anytime, and that the latter is the default. Which is why I'm not doing anything about changing the default; rather, I'm going to try to enjoy the good times.

Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)

#29

Post by paul »

timr wrote: post #9

I think about outcomes rationally, but these days, I tend to think about opportunity cost a lot more intently. Sure, if you tank a startup, you likely lose only your investment, and you'll probably learn a lot. Problem is, you've also just spent N years of your life doing little but working like crazy. If you're lucky, you've got about 80 years to enjoy on this planet. You've got about 15 of those as a young adult. H…

Yes, opportunity cost is super-important and is probably under-appreciated. In the startup example, you should definitely be considering the worst case (and best case!) opportunity cost since working on one startup (or other job) largely precludes you from working on something else.
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