I think the "IF" part from "If I'm comfortable with the worst-case outcome, then I can move without fear and focus my attention on the opportunity" is the most important part.(Assuming I have clearly evaluated the risks) People probably take it for granted that they are comfortable or focus more on avoiding the worst-case outcome than focusing more on the opportunity.
Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)
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Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)
#12This is your human lint:"its," not "it's." Second paragraph, '20 percent of it's value.'
/me goes back to reading.
Edit: okay, finished. Great observations.
> "[...] These things all raise the expected value (in my mind at least), so if they are mostly true, and I'm excited about the best-case outcome, and I'm comfortable with the worst-case outcome, then it's probably a good gamble."
'If I'm excited about the best-case outcome ...'
This can be a big problem for some people.
I like difficult things, but I'm excited by freedom, and the "best-case" outcomes for a lot of my really 'ambitious' ideas just don't sweep me off my feet. If the best outcome is lots of money for lots of work, for instance ... well, I do lots of work for no money at all right now, but is it worth shouldering that "moral weight" that I hear doing an ambitious startup entails?
A best-case outcome for me is one that I produced without committing myself to do so. Maybe I'm just a coward, or maybe I've just been burned by committing myself too rapidly in the past.
I'm doing a startup, but it's really just a small business with some friends that happens to run custom software. Maybe it'll turn into something more, but I'm not committing to that!
;)
Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)
#13"...[E]ven if you're ok with dying, that outcome may cause unacceptable harm to other people in your life."
Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)
#14I think about outcomes rationally, but these days, I tend to think about opportunity cost a lot more intently. Sure, if you tank a startup, you likely lose only your investment, and you'll probably learn a lot. Problem is, you've also just spent N years of your life doing little but working like crazy. If you're lucky, you've got about 80 years to enjoy on this planet. You've got about 15 of those as a young adult. H…
You've got about 15 of those as a young adult. How much are they worth?
Most people have a shitty time their whole lives. Most people in history would dream of spending a year the way adult Americans do/did. My plan is to enjoy college and then dive into a startup.
Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)
#15Earlier quoted context omitted.
Many others (not hn readers, or course) ask themselves, "What is everyone else doing?" Are you seriously saying that HN readers aren't prone to jumping on bandwagons? To the extent that the HN readership is a microcosm of the silicon valley startup culture, this seems profoundly inaccurate -- I can't think of any group more prone to imitation than silicon valley startups. (Obviously there are some exceptions -- and t…
I used to jump on bandwagons, but then I changed and started thinking all decisions through on my own, because I noticed that's what everybody else on hn was doing.
Me too!
Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)
#16I think about outcomes rationally, but these days, I tend to think about opportunity cost a lot more intently. Sure, if you tank a startup, you likely lose only your investment, and you'll probably learn a lot. Problem is, you've also just spent N years of your life doing little but working like crazy. If you're lucky, you've got about 80 years to enjoy on this planet. You've got about 15 of those as a young adult. H…
You've got about 15 of those as a young adult. How much are they worth? Most people have a shitty time their whole lives. Most people in history would dream of spending a year the way adult Americans do/did. My plan is to enjoy college and then dive into a startup.
Ignoratio elenchi. I'm not suggesting that you do nothing with your life, just that you have to weigh the alternatives carefully.
(But as an aside, even today a huge percentage of the world's population lives in squalor. If this is your true concern, then I assume that you're going to address it with your startup? Otherwise, your argument is simply a justification for martyrdom. Noble perhaps, but not necessarily useful.)
Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)
#17I try to think about the best case, the worst case, and the most likely case, and also how easily each of those cases are avoidable.
For example, the worst case for starting a startup isn't that you learn a lot. It's that you continue the startup well past the point where you're learning anything, chasing a dream that was impossible to begin with, passing up other opportunities that would be far more productive.
But this outcome is fairly easy to avoid, and entirely under your control. You just have to take stock periodically and have the courage to call it quits if it becomes obvious that you're on a fool's errand. Basically, re-evaluate risk and opportunity at each step along the way to see if your upside is still the upside you thought it was, and if any further risks have accumulated to the downside.
Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)
#18I try to think about the best case, the worst case, and the most likely case, and also how easily each of those cases are avoidable. For example, the worst case for starting a startup isn't that you learn a lot. It's that you continue the startup well past the point where you're learning anything, chasing a dream that was impossible to begin with, passing up other opportunities that would be far more productive. But…
> But this outcome is fairly easy to avoid... You just have to take stock periodically and have the courage to call it quits if it becomes obvious that you're on a fool's errand
It's only "easy" in the same sense that it's easy to make money on the stock market; you just buy low and sell high.
Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)
#19I think about outcomes rationally, but these days, I tend to think about opportunity cost a lot more intently. Sure, if you tank a startup, you likely lose only your investment, and you'll probably learn a lot. Problem is, you've also just spent N years of your life doing little but working like crazy. If you're lucky, you've got about 80 years to enjoy on this planet. You've got about 15 of those as a young adult. H…
> Sure, if you tank a startup, you likely lose only your investment, and you'll probably learn a lot. Problem is, you've also just spent N years of your life doing little but working like crazy. If you're lucky, you've got about 80 years to enjoy on this planet. You've got about 15 of those as a young adult. How much are they worth?
I have recently come to the thinking that a life in search of fun and happiness leaves one feeling empty in the longer term, where a life with intense focus on a cause you deem worthy will have plenty of fun and happiness along the way.
Now, most people are kind of in a borderland where they're not focused on something intensely purposeful, nor are they enjoying their life. It's a sort of limbo. But to get out of that, I think focusing on finding something worth striving hard for that will produce plenty of short term joy and enjoyment to go along with long term fulfillment.
Re: Paul Buchheit: Evaluating risk and opportunity (as a human)
#20I think about outcomes rationally, but these days, I tend to think about opportunity cost a lot more intently. Sure, if you tank a startup, you likely lose only your investment, and you'll probably learn a lot. Problem is, you've also just spent N years of your life doing little but working like crazy. If you're lucky, you've got about 80 years to enjoy on this planet. You've got about 15 of those as a young adult. H…
> Sure, if you tank a startup, you likely lose only your investment, and you'll probably learn a lot. Problem is, you've also just spent N years of your life doing little but working like crazy. If you're lucky, you've got about 80 years to enjoy on this planet. You've got about 15 of those as a young adult. How much are they worth? I have recently come to the thinking that a life in search of fun and happiness leave…
intense focus on a cause you deem worthy
Such as, to pick a startup at random, online ticket sales? Is that -- by itself, without any consideration of reward or profit -- worth the sacrifice? The answer for this, and for 99% of other startups, is HELL NO.