Earlier quoted context omitted.
He blatantly ignores the issue of energy constraints, more specifically the concept of embodied energy[0], which in the near future will be a very real very limiting factor that right now goes unnoticed because we're burning up energy reserves the earth has built up for hundreds of millions of years. If we do look at this from an energy spending point of view.. this robot/AI revolution is gonna have a few interesting…
> life is far more energy-efficient than machines for most tasks I'll be blunt and say that that is just bullshit for quite obvious reasons. Your [1] does not support the claim.
AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]
131–140 of 155 posts
Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]
#132Earlier quoted context omitted.
I can't recommend this video highly enough - it does a great job of showing the science fact instead of contemplating science fiction, illustrating how technology that we have in development NOW is going to impact our economy. I have a feeling that this is an issue is going to creep up on us quickly, and I worry that our governments have proven themselves completely incapable of driving the discussion and making the…
As a roboticist, this video made me very angry. This is not a great showing of science fact, but a strange distortion of the current state of robotics to fit a particular narrative. By the end, it definitely ventures well into the realm of science fiction. I'll point out some of the most egregious examples. This is a pretty long post, but if you spent 15 minutes watching the video, the least you can do is spend 15 mi…
The presenter isn't attacking robotics, but outlining the increases in capabilities.
Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]
#133Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]
#134Of course, there will be less and less "jobs" in the future. But that's OK. The population growth is already stopping. Productivity will rise to the new heights. Society will adapt — first, by introducing, say, 4-hour work days, then by totally eliminating the concept of a "job" — everyone will be either a temp staffer, or a business founder (or an artisan — arts and crafts will be more valuable than ever). We are mo…
I'd like to believe this, but I don't see the corresponding changes in societal structure. If we really are post-scarcity, it would be nice if some sort of average person could have a family if they choose, or at least have access to health care, housing and things to make a reasonable life. Truly part time work with a decent wage almost does not exist in most fields. The people I know trying to make a living doing a…
Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]
#135Earlier quoted context omitted.
So long as machines are not far more effective at building (and possibly some day even engineering) those things we desire...
If machines can make everything we want for so cheap that we can't possibly compete that mean that everything we want is incredibly cheap.
"Incredibly cheap" is not a relevant metric. The relevant quantity is price/income. If income drops by 50% and price drops by 10%, the good has still effectively become almost twice as expensive.
Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]
#136As a society, we need to ask ourselves two questions: (1) what is the purpose of work? and (2) what do people find valuable? The premise of question 1 is that we should not work just for the sake of saying that we are working. Rather we should work because we are creating something of value for others and ourselves. I think that automation will have a profound impact on the economy by making certain types of work eco…
Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]
#137There was only two economists discussing the future of jobs :( Robotics and automation are changing business from labor intensive to capital intensive. Wage share (share of wages from the GDP) has been going down since early 70's in all OECD countries. Automation will continue to increase that trend together with more competition from third world. The job loss should be considered as one issue in downward pressure fo…
The thing I find amazing is that they have a couple of kids working barely above minimum wage essentially doing the task of a vending machine. Their most labour intensive task is rolling out the ball of pizza dough.
I won't be surprised to see grocery stores rapidly change to near full automation. We already have automated shipping warehouses, stocking store shelves is essentially the reverse process and with proper inventory monitoring a shelf would never be empty. Checkouts are already becoming self-serve in many places as it allows more "cashiers" to be open thus reducing lines.
Every job in a grocery store is shockingly automatable, from assembling the loads at the distribution warehouses, we're already talking automated tractor trailers for freight, automated fork lifts to load and unload, automated shelf stackers and self-serve cashes. Whose going to be working? Security, at least until we automate that.
I work construction, and its honestly a matter of time before I'm automated out of a job. I'm blessed by the fact that rough terrain is the main limiting factor, that I might actually stay employed longer than most.
The reason I see automation taking over is because we're approaching onsite manufacture of a lot of materials. It used to be just eavestrough, but now every form of steel roofing can be made on site. It's only a matter of time before someone starts mounting them on boom lifts and running them out in place for workers to just screw down. From there its only going to be a short time until the machine makes and screws the piece.
We're starting to see vinyl products that can be bent to make fascia, which means a machine can easily produce vinyl siding and accessories on site. So how long until they get mounted on a scissor lift and parked at one end of the wall and you can have a 50ft wall of seamless siding.
Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]
#138Earlier quoted context omitted.
I found it surprisingly shallow in that it didn't really delve into post-scarcity economics. With stuff like basic income or negative taxing the loss of jobs will not look as severe societally.
The point of the video is that robots will soon exceed humans as workers in every conceivable way. "Post-scarcity economy" is obviously incompatible with free market capitalism. I can see how one might believe that prices could decrease towards zero as the efficiency of technology increases, however there still needs to be an incentive for production. At the moment, the incentive is profit. But if nobody can afford a…
The US has major political dogma against communism and socialism. The only way out of this is going to be with major socialist programs. The only way to avoid civil unrest over unemployment rates will be literally paying people off. Basic income is inevitable.
The issue is, how long will companies be allowed to hold on to control. What happens when we start automating out jobs with AI. What happens when even the CEO is replaced, and investors are just AIs representing a portfolio. I find it highly doubtful the public will allow billions of dollars and control of corporations to sit in the hands of AIs with the intent of profiteering.
So how long until companies are taken over by the government. You said what happens when companies possess more power than the government, but I don't know any corporations with 10 aircraft carriers in operation. Eminent Domain seizures will be the way the government retains control.
How long after basic income would it take to see grocery stores become seen as a public utility? Or housing construction? When everyone can afford a house, we can't afford not giving people houses.
It's going to be interesting to see how much of our traditional practice's remain.
Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]
#139Earlier quoted context omitted.
He blatantly ignores the issue of energy constraints, more specifically the concept of embodied energy[0], which in the near future will be a very real very limiting factor that right now goes unnoticed because we're burning up energy reserves the earth has built up for hundreds of millions of years. If we do look at this from an energy spending point of view.. this robot/AI revolution is gonna have a few interesting…
> life is far more energy-efficient than machines for most tasks I'll be blunt and say that that is just bullshit for quite obvious reasons. Your [1] does not support the claim.
"A human-controlled punching machine is 25 to 35 times more efficient than a laser cutter when producing a standard part"
"Fibre laser cutters are more efficient than CO2-laser cutters, but their power consumption is still 10 times larger than that of a slower but equally powerful human-controlled nibbling machine"
... and has tables like:
http://krisdedecker.typepad.com/.a/6a00e0099229e8883301a73d8...
(which is per item, by the way)
... is not supporting the claim that manual labour is more energy efficient for many tasks.
Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]
#140Earlier quoted context omitted.
I found it surprisingly shallow in that it didn't really delve into post-scarcity economics. With stuff like basic income or negative taxing the loss of jobs will not look as severe societally.
The big question is being able to finance basic income when a large and growing part of the population is unemployed. Where is the tax base?