AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#21

Post by robertfw » Fri, Aug 15, 2014, 6:34 PM UTC

e0m wrote: post #3

CGP Grey recently put out a video along very similar lines. Worth 15 mins: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU&list=UU2C_jShtL7...

I can't recommend this video highly enough - it does a great job of showing the science fact instead of contemplating science fiction, illustrating how technology that we have in development NOW is going to impact our economy.

I have a feeling that this is an issue is going to creep up on us quickly, and I worry that our governments have proven themselves completely incapable of driving the discussion and making the decisions that need to be made.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#22

Post by robertfw » Fri, Aug 15, 2014, 6:36 PM UTC

atemerev wrote: post #16

robertfw wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rising productivity has just put more money in precious few pockets. While I truly believe that this vision of the future is technically possible, I have little faith that it will be the future we end up with.

> Rising productivity has just put more money in precious few pockets. In all pockets. Again, compare a poor person of today with a poor person of 100 years ago.

This is absolutely true. But when money buys power, relative wealth becomes the important measure.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#23

Post by clusterfoo » Fri, Aug 15, 2014, 6:40 PM UTC

hvs wrote: post #17

JeremyReimer wrote: post #9

If a panel of experts are evenly split on their opinions about the future of jobs, it seems to me that nobody really knows what is going to happen. It's one thing to point to how historically new technology created new jobs to replace those it displaced, but I get the feeling that this time it might be very different. All the rules go out the window when technological acceleration reaches a certain point. I'm not say…

Peoples' wants and desires are infinite. As long as there are things to desire, there will be jobs to do.

So long as machines are not far more effective at building (and possibly some day even engineering) those things we desire...

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#24

Post by 3rd3 » Fri, Aug 15, 2014, 6:41 PM UTC

e0m wrote: post #3

CGP Grey recently put out a video along very similar lines. Worth 15 mins: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU&list=UU2C_jShtL7...

That video was actually briefly on the HN front page. I’m still wondering why some people apparently flagged so that it was quickly relegated to page 3 or so.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#25

Post by TeMPOraL » Fri, Aug 15, 2014, 6:43 PM UTC

pacala wrote: post #12

elleferrer wrote: post #4

There will be a bright future for our growing aging population.

There will be a bright future for our capital owning population. There is a weak correlation between old people and capital ownership and easy to mistake the two if inferring from the age axis, e.g. person X owns more capital at 50 than at 25. However, this doesn't generalize well when doing a cross section at a given age, see for example the average savings for a 50 year old, which is a meager $43,797 http://www.sta…

That's why we need to move away capitalism before it's too late, if we want to have part in that bright future.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#26

Post by jjoonathan » Fri, Aug 15, 2014, 6:47 PM UTC

hvs wrote: post #17

JeremyReimer wrote: post #9

If a panel of experts are evenly split on their opinions about the future of jobs, it seems to me that nobody really knows what is going to happen. It's one thing to point to how historically new technology created new jobs to replace those it displaced, but I get the feeling that this time it might be very different. All the rules go out the window when technological acceleration reaches a certain point. I'm not say…

Peoples' wants and desires are infinite. As long as there are things to desire, there will be jobs to do.

That's hardly a point of comfort if the new jobs all tend to be subject to the laws of "extremistan" (which seems to be the case for most artistic/creative/high-level ventures):

http://techcrunch.com/2014/06/21/welcome-to-extremistan/

If today you replaced half of the blue-collar jobs in our economy with jobs that had a 10% chance of paying 100x as much but a 90% chance of paying effectively nothing (10x the average productivity, woohoo) you would still have widespread starvation, revolution, and violence tomorrow.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#27

Post by zokier » Fri, Aug 15, 2014, 6:48 PM UTC

e0m wrote: post #3

CGP Grey recently put out a video along very similar lines. Worth 15 mins: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU&list=UU2C_jShtL7...

I found it surprisingly shallow in that it didn't really delve into post-scarcity economics. With stuff like basic income or negative taxing the loss of jobs will not look as severe societally.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#28

Post by 3rd3 » Fri, Aug 15, 2014, 6:56 PM UTC

zokier wrote: post #27

e0m wrote: post #3

CGP Grey recently put out a video along very similar lines. Worth 15 mins: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU&list=UU2C_jShtL7...

I found it surprisingly shallow in that it didn't really delve into post-scarcity economics. With stuff like basic income or negative taxing the loss of jobs will not look as severe societally.

Grey said on reddit that he purposely didn’t include possible solutions in the video.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#29

Post by sesteel » Fri, Aug 15, 2014, 7:02 PM UTC

JeremyReimer wrote: post #9

If a panel of experts are evenly split on their opinions about the future of jobs, it seems to me that nobody really knows what is going to happen. It's one thing to point to how historically new technology created new jobs to replace those it displaced, but I get the feeling that this time it might be very different. All the rules go out the window when technological acceleration reaches a certain point. I'm not say…

Economist Louis Kelso (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Kelso) was talking about many of these issues in the 1950's. He proposed the concepts behind Binary Economic Theory (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binary_economics) which helped usher into law the Employee Stock Ownership Program (ESOP). Whether or not you agree with it, it is certainly interesting to learn about. It isn't something that is widely taught.

Re: AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs [pdf]

#30

Post by sitkack » Fri, Aug 15, 2014, 7:04 PM UTC

robertfw wrote: post #21

e0m wrote: post #3

CGP Grey recently put out a video along very similar lines. Worth 15 mins: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU&list=UU2C_jShtL7...

I can't recommend this video highly enough - it does a great job of showing the science fact instead of contemplating science fiction, illustrating how technology that we have in development NOW is going to impact our economy. I have a feeling that this is an issue is going to creep up on us quickly, and I worry that our governments have proven themselves completely incapable of driving the discussion and making the…

I really hope we dont let the bottom half of our economy fall before we strive for the restructuring we will need. Because when we let stuff fail, billions or trillions in value will vanish with it.