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Google is investing billions in technologies that bring the future closer

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Re: Google is investing billions in technologies that bring the future closer

#21

Post by JoeAltmaier »

agildehaus wrote: post #20
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought it was about sensors and integration. Big-data? That would be open-loop driving (using GPS only to steer) which I desperately hope is NOT the approach they're taking.

Google's LIDAR builds a 3D 1cm-resolution map of the world around it in realtime as it drives which is then compared to a 3D map of the route it received from Google when the trip started. The downloaded route has been manually processed to include data about where signage is (precisely, in 3 dimensions, so the car knows where to find a stoplight without having to continually hunt), which routes it can take and at wh…

True; yet no human driver works like this. Humans respond to changes in the environment dynamically. Wind blow down the sign? Check for environmental clues - "Hey! I can see that's University Ave over there, this must be my exit". Traffic light out/obscured? Look at what the other cars are doing and recover. Pickup parked on the curb, partially blocking the right lane? Span lanes, and expect others in traffic to give you some leeway.

Open-loop driving is a terrifying idea. Not because it wont work 99% of the time; but because it will fail catastrophically 1% of the time which is way, way too often.

Re: Google is investing billions in technologies that bring the future closer

#22

Post by ghaff »

threeseed wrote: post #4

It never ceases to amaze me how many people have bought into the idea that Google is going to bring self-driving cars to the world. The leading car companies have been working on it for decades. And in some cases e.g. Volvo in Sweden are testing it at a serious, real-world scale: https://www.media.volvocars.com/global/en-gb/media/videos/13...

Furthermore, so many discussions conflate what are effectively advanced assistive driving technologies with truly autonomous vehicles (i.e. Robocar: Gp pick up little Johnny from soccer practice). The former is certainly interesting but it doesn't fundamentally change the nature of automobiles and driving.

Re: Google is investing billions in technologies that bring the future closer

#23

Post by threeseed »

agildehaus wrote: post #20
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought it was about sensors and integration. Big-data? That would be open-loop driving (using GPS only to steer) which I desperately hope is NOT the approach they're taking.

Google's LIDAR builds a 3D 1cm-resolution map of the world around it in realtime as it drives which is then compared to a 3D map of the route it received from Google when the trip started. The downloaded route has been manually processed to include data about where signage is (precisely, in 3 dimensions, so the car knows where to find a stoplight without having to continually hunt), which routes it can take and at wh…

Which is Google's solution. But everything we've read today is that the big car companies are not using this approach. They are relying far more on the car alone to make decisions:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/haydnshaughnessy/2013/02/04/why-...

Re: Google is investing billions in technologies that bring the future closer

#24

Post by JoeAltmaier »

adwf wrote: post #13
threeseed wrote: post #4

It never ceases to amaze me how many people have bought into the idea that Google is going to bring self-driving cars to the world. The leading car companies have been working on it for decades. And in some cases e.g. Volvo in Sweden are testing it at a serious, real-world scale: https://www.media.volvocars.com/global/en-gb/media/videos/13...

That's because self-driving cars aren't a car problem, they're a computer problem. Why would you think that a car company would be experts in machine learning? Doesn't matter how many decades they've been working on it, they just aren't domain experts. Now it's possible they have since hired some experts, but a good 80%+ of all the well-known AI/Machine learning people I know of are working for Google. Google have go…

Be fair; its both. Sensors and integration are part of the problem, and that's not Google's forte. In fact they had to hire the DARPA guys to get that expertise. Arguably car companies could do something similar to shore up their deficits in this field.

Re: Google is investing billions in technologies that bring the future closer

#25

Post by tomasien »

threeseed wrote: post #12
tomasien wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because they've been working on it for decades doesn't mean they're the one's best positioned to it. See electric cars/Tesla.

Electric cars and Tesla just reaffirms my point. Tesla sells in less than a handful of countries and given the amount of money they are losing with questionable success. Toyota, Nissan and GM have been selling electric cars en masse in almost all countries in which they operate i.e. most of them. So yes. The existing car companies are best positioned to bring autonomous driving to fruition. They have already been doi…

Good! Tesla has pushed the big car companies to do what they could have done decades ago - build and distribute fully electric cars that are the same or better quality than non-electric cars. And, your questionable view that profitability for a company in it's growth phase defines success non-withstanding, they're pretty quickly eating their lunch at it too. They're going to continue to be forced to compete with Tesla because Tesla builds amazing cars that people want to buy. When they're able to sell them more places and build them at new price points (already happening), it's going to be fun to watch.

However, that doesn't mean the big car companies won't make cars that are just as good - the point is that now they HAVE to and that's good. Same with self-driving cars.

Re: Google is investing billions in technologies that bring the future closer

#26

Post by kyrra »

threeseed wrote: post #23
agildehaus wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google's LIDAR builds a 3D 1cm-resolution map of the world around it in realtime as it drives which is then compared to a 3D map of the route it received from Google when the trip started. The downloaded route has been manually processed to include data about where signage is (precisely, in 3 dimensions, so the car knows where to find a stoplight without having to continually hunt), which routes it can take and at wh…

Which is Google's solution. But everything we've read today is that the big car companies are not using this approach. They are relying far more on the car alone to make decisions: http://www.forbes.com/sites/haydnshaughnessy/2013/02/04/why-...

It's because car companies don't want to take the a big bet and try to do it all at once. That's why every deal Google has tried to make with auto-makers has fell through. Google wants to rush to the finish line and create a fully self-driving car. But the time-frame to be able to deliver that is fairly unknown due to a number of issues.

Auto-makers want to do smaller R&D projects that they can deliver to consumers within a few years of start (instead of a decade+). Things like adaptive cruise control or self-braking. These are things that were just a few years of R&D and are shipping now.

They are different paths to the same goal. We don't know the outcome yet, Google or the auto-makers may get there first. But we do know that auto-makers will have sellable features in the mean time while Google just has pretty marketing videos and demos.

What Google is bringing (that the article mentions) is the discussion about fully self-driving cars. This discussions means laws are being passed to facilitate the technology. It also means that the NTSB, insurance companies, and others involved in the auto industry are talking about the impacts of what a self-driving car means within our current system. So hopefully by the time they arrive, the rules and laws will be caught up with it. It also means consumers are talking about it and becoming aware of the possibility, which helps motivate others to work on the same projects. It may also mean that consumers are less wary of the technology when it actually does arrive.

Re: Google is investing billions in technologies that bring the future closer

#27

Post by jotm »

threeseed wrote: post #4

It never ceases to amaze me how many people have bought into the idea that Google is going to bring self-driving cars to the world. The leading car companies have been working on it for decades. And in some cases e.g. Volvo in Sweden are testing it at a serious, real-world scale: https://www.media.volvocars.com/global/en-gb/media/videos/13...

To be fair, the leading car companies have been working on electric cars for decades, as well. And Tesla just comes in and takes the lead (same for space launches).

Company age has nothing to do with its ability to innovate (if anything, you'd want to squeeze the last penny out of your existing tech/products before offering something new).

Re: Google is investing billions in technologies that bring the future closer

#28

Post by TeMPOraL »

coldtea wrote: post #16
raldi wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah it's like when people thought that PayPal guy could create an electric car.

They PayPal guy has a track record of delivering stuff. Google, aside from a few select areas (Search, Mail, Android) has a big track record of conceptual BS and half-baked products that get pulled back or fail in the market (Chromebook, Motorola phones, Glass, Wave, Plus, etc).

> Google, aside from a few select areas (Search, Mail, Android)...

... ads, maps, cloud computing, cloud document storage & editing, analytics, fiber optics...

Be fair. They're doing a lot of things, so obviously not everything will pan out, but the products that do are usually not just market successes, they become the market.

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