Google is investing billions in technologies that bring the future closer • Hacker News Board

Re: Google is investing billions in technologies that bring the future closer

#11

Post by Zigurd » Sun, Aug 10, 2014, 2:09 PM UTC

poslathian wrote: post #6

I would add Project Ara to this list. The technologies being developed to make the modular phone (eg network on a board with UniPro) has the potential to drastically change the way companies design and fab all sorts of electronic devices.

Sorry but here is my "bold" prediction: Ara is the Google Barge of electronics packaging technology. There is no theory for how modularity will be a winner this time when it has always failed due to reasons that span technology, product management, and economics. Too many different problems to solve.

Re: Google is investing billions in technologies that bring the future closer

#12

Post by threeseed » Sun, Aug 10, 2014, 2:11 PM UTC

tomasien wrote: post #9

threeseed wrote: post #4

It never ceases to amaze me how many people have bought into the idea that Google is going to bring self-driving cars to the world. The leading car companies have been working on it for decades. And in some cases e.g. Volvo in Sweden are testing it at a serious, real-world scale: https://www.media.volvocars.com/global/en-gb/media/videos/13...

Just because they've been working on it for decades doesn't mean they're the one's best positioned to it. See electric cars/Tesla.

Electric cars and Tesla just reaffirms my point.

Tesla sells in less than a handful of countries and given the amount of money they are losing with questionable success. Toyota, Nissan and GM have been selling electric cars en masse in almost all countries in which they operate i.e. most of them.

So yes. The existing car companies are best positioned to bring autonomous driving to fruition. They have already been doing it now with auto parking and accident avoidance. And let's not forget that have the supply chain, regulatory and marketing aspects sewn up.

Re: Google is investing billions in technologies that bring the future closer

#13

Post by adwf » Sun, Aug 10, 2014, 2:14 PM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #4

It never ceases to amaze me how many people have bought into the idea that Google is going to bring self-driving cars to the world. The leading car companies have been working on it for decades. And in some cases e.g. Volvo in Sweden are testing it at a serious, real-world scale: https://www.media.volvocars.com/global/en-gb/media/videos/13...

That's because self-driving cars aren't a car problem, they're a computer problem. Why would you think that a car company would be experts in machine learning? Doesn't matter how many decades they've been working on it, they just aren't domain experts.

Now it's possible they have since hired some experts, but a good 80%+ of all the well-known AI/Machine learning people I know of are working for Google.

Google have got the guys who literally wrote the book on AI.

Re: Google is investing billions in technologies that bring the future closer

#14

Post by HCIdivision17 » Sun, Aug 10, 2014, 2:15 PM UTC

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #10

agildehaus wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Self-driving is largely a big data problem, which Google is far better at than any car company. They also hired most of the big names from the DARPA Grand Challenge. Google is focusing on a self driving car at NHTSA level 4 and plans to have such a vehicle available to the public between 2017-2020, while these other companies are focusing on level 3 and have no solid plans for level 4.

I thought it was about sensors and integration. Big-data? That would be open-loop driving (using GPS only to steer) which I desperately hope is NOT the approach they're taking.

I think all those sensors turn into big data. There's an enormous amount of information streaming off all those cameras, rangefinders, gps, accelerometers, and stock on-board car sensors (like traction control). Add hard realtime constraints for computing solutions, and you've got to handle a giant pile of unavoidable data to ensure safety.

Of course, I'm sure the data's culled a thousand ways to Sunday to make it manageable, but it's going to be like a self-contained industrial process, which can generate positively stupid amounts of data.

Re: Google is investing billions in technologies that bring the future closer

#15

Post by threeseed » Sun, Aug 10, 2014, 2:16 PM UTC

agildehaus wrote: post #7

threeseed wrote: post #4

It never ceases to amaze me how many people have bought into the idea that Google is going to bring self-driving cars to the world. The leading car companies have been working on it for decades. And in some cases e.g. Volvo in Sweden are testing it at a serious, real-world scale: https://www.media.volvocars.com/global/en-gb/media/videos/13...

Self-driving is largely a big data problem, which Google is far better at than any car company. They also hired most of the big names from the DARPA Grand Challenge. Google is focusing on a self driving car at NHTSA level 4 and plans to have such a vehicle available to the public between 2017-2020, while these other companies are focusing on level 3 and have no solid plans for level 4.

Self driving is not a big data problem at all.

It is all about sensors, algorithms, telemetry and maps. And pretty sure the car companies that participate in F1 would have a pretty good understanding of how to get all of those working together nicely. Not that it is a problem that only Google is qualified to solve.

Re: Google is investing billions in technologies that bring the future closer

#16

Post by coldtea » Sun, Aug 10, 2014, 2:17 PM UTC

raldi wrote: post #5

threeseed wrote: post #4

It never ceases to amaze me how many people have bought into the idea that Google is going to bring self-driving cars to the world. The leading car companies have been working on it for decades. And in some cases e.g. Volvo in Sweden are testing it at a serious, real-world scale: https://www.media.volvocars.com/global/en-gb/media/videos/13...

Yeah it's like when people thought that PayPal guy could create an electric car.

They PayPal guy has a track record of delivering stuff.

Google, aside from a few select areas (Search, Mail, Android) has a big track record of conceptual BS and half-baked products that get pulled back or fail in the market (Chromebook, Motorola phones, Glass, Wave, Plus, etc).

Re: Google is investing billions in technologies that bring the future closer

#17

Post by threeseed » Sun, Aug 10, 2014, 2:19 PM UTC

adwf wrote: post #13

threeseed wrote: post #4

It never ceases to amaze me how many people have bought into the idea that Google is going to bring self-driving cars to the world. The leading car companies have been working on it for decades. And in some cases e.g. Volvo in Sweden are testing it at a serious, real-world scale: https://www.media.volvocars.com/global/en-gb/media/videos/13...

That's because self-driving cars aren't a car problem, they're a computer problem. Why would you think that a car company would be experts in machine learning? Doesn't matter how many decades they've been working on it, they just aren't domain experts. Now it's possible they have since hired some experts, but a good 80%+ of all the well-known AI/Machine learning people I know of are working for Google. Google have go…

Because the car companies ship tens of millions of cars today with auto parking and accident avoidance. They clearly know how to combine all the pieces in a robust and safe way.

And if 80% of the well known people in AI/machine learning are employed by Google then I assume that no interesting work is being done outside there. Pretty sure there are a few companies around who would disagree with you there.

Re: Google is investing billions in technologies that bring the future closer

#18

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Aug 10, 2014, 2:23 PM UTC

agildehaus wrote: post #7

threeseed wrote: post #4

It never ceases to amaze me how many people have bought into the idea that Google is going to bring self-driving cars to the world. The leading car companies have been working on it for decades. And in some cases e.g. Volvo in Sweden are testing it at a serious, real-world scale: https://www.media.volvocars.com/global/en-gb/media/videos/13...

Self-driving is largely a big data problem, which Google is far better at than any car company. They also hired most of the big names from the DARPA Grand Challenge. Google is focusing on a self driving car at NHTSA level 4 and plans to have such a vehicle available to the public between 2017-2020, while these other companies are focusing on level 3 and have no solid plans for level 4.

[deleted]

Re: Google is investing billions in technologies that bring the future closer

#19

Post by coldtea » Sun, Aug 10, 2014, 2:23 PM UTC

adwf wrote: post #13

threeseed wrote: post #4

It never ceases to amaze me how many people have bought into the idea that Google is going to bring self-driving cars to the world. The leading car companies have been working on it for decades. And in some cases e.g. Volvo in Sweden are testing it at a serious, real-world scale: https://www.media.volvocars.com/global/en-gb/media/videos/13...

That's because self-driving cars aren't a car problem, they're a computer problem. Why would you think that a car company would be experts in machine learning? Doesn't matter how many decades they've been working on it, they just aren't domain experts. Now it's possible they have since hired some experts, but a good 80%+ of all the well-known AI/Machine learning people I know of are working for Google. Google have go…

>That's because self-driving cars aren't a car problem, they're a computer problem. Why would you think that a car company would be experts in machine learning?

Because they can hire expers in machine learning just fine. Just how they progressed from dumb cars in the 50's to modern cars full of real-time OSes, micro-computers and sensors and stuff.

Plus, I don't see Google as any kind of "experts in machine learning", with perhaps the exception of search.

Google having access to my email and web habits and showing me BS unrelated ads doesn't boost my confidence in their machine learning capabilities either.

Re: Google is investing billions in technologies that bring the future closer

#20

Post by agildehaus » Sun, Aug 10, 2014, 2:25 PM UTC

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #10

agildehaus wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Self-driving is largely a big data problem, which Google is far better at than any car company. They also hired most of the big names from the DARPA Grand Challenge. Google is focusing on a self driving car at NHTSA level 4 and plans to have such a vehicle available to the public between 2017-2020, while these other companies are focusing on level 3 and have no solid plans for level 4.

I thought it was about sensors and integration. Big-data? That would be open-loop driving (using GPS only to steer) which I desperately hope is NOT the approach they're taking.

Google's LIDAR builds a 3D 1cm-resolution map of the world around it in realtime as it drives which is then compared to a 3D map of the route it received from Google when the trip started. The downloaded route has been manually processed to include data about where signage is (precisely, in 3 dimensions, so the car knows where to find a stoplight without having to continually hunt), which routes it can take and at what speeds, exactly where the lanes are, rules of the road, etc. The map also allows the car to know where it exists in the world to the accuracy of a centimeter, and would enable things like navigation of parking lots and garages. I would consider having to build such a thing for the entire world to be a "big data" problem.