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S.&P. Says Argentina Has Defaulted

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181–190 of 195 posts

Re: S.&P. Says Argentina Has Defaulted

#181
post #132

Let's hope this doesn't precipitate that favoured bread and circuses smokescreen of Argentine politics, viz idiotic sabre-rattling over the Falklands.

This comment is naive. Our "sabre-rattling" over the Malvinas Islands was done during our vicious, murderous military dictatorship in the 70s/early 80s. We now have a democracy. Any dispute about the islands is done via diplomatic means (regardless of whether you believe the claim has merit, diplomacy is the only legitimate way to resolve it). No sabre-rattling is possible. Don't confuse democratic Argentina with pas…

> Our "sabre-rattling" over the Malvinas Islands was done during our vicious, murderous military dictatorship in the 70s/early 80s.

No, it has continued as recently as this year (actually, its been on a notable upswing in the last couple of years, and a similar upswing happened, IIRC, in the early-to-mid-1990s.) Its true that it reached a fever pitch and an actual brief war with the UK in the time you describe, but the sabre rattling didn't end there.

Re: S.&P. Says Argentina Has Defaulted

#182

Brazil and Argentina had very similar economic plans to get out of hyperinflation from the 80's - both created a new currency whose value was attached to the USD. There was a subtle difference: Brazil forbade domestic contracts in dollar (with a few exceptions, mainly leasing contracts for imported vehicles). So when the market forces kicked in and Brazil was forced to devalue its artificially priced new currency, th…

This is badly wrong.

Brazil's plan wasn't to create "a currency with value attached to dollar", nor it was Argentina's plan.

Argentina made a currency board, a regime in which the central bank could only emit 1 peso more if 1 dollar more entered the country (and reached the central bank's vault).

In Brazil, Argentina's plan was called "dolarization" and was dropped by André Lara Resende, Persio Arida and Edmar Bacha when they were thinking about the brazilian plan, Plano Real.

In fact, what Brazil did was only to control government costs, stop printing money and stop the indexation of prices and contracts by creating a virtual currency whose value changed every day in the rate of inflation (so all things could be priced in this virtual currency, whose nominal value was fixed). After that, that virtual currency became real, was printed and called the Real, becoming the new brazilian currency.

The Real had no need of dollar indexation to succeed, and its price in dollars wasn't fixed at all, the brazilian central bank only made a promise to keep its price in parity, with open-market operations, for some time, to boost confidence, then it would let the price fluctuate. This was stated and clear from the beggining of the plan's implementation.

Re: S.&P. Says Argentina Has Defaulted

#183
post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chile also has better weather, though I agree that Perú has tastier food.

I enjoyed summer weather in Chile and it is fantastic, but right now it is winter, and I've heard winter is something my Colombian skin could not survive.

Summer depends how far south you go. e.g. Chiloe is cold in January.

Re: S.&P. Says Argentina Has Defaulted

#184
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment is naive. Our "sabre-rattling" over the Malvinas Islands was done during our vicious, murderous military dictatorship in the 70s/early 80s. We now have a democracy. Any dispute about the islands is done via diplomatic means (regardless of whether you believe the claim has merit, diplomacy is the only legitimate way to resolve it). No sabre-rattling is possible. Don't confuse democratic Argentina with pas…

>Our "sabre-rattling" over the Malvinas Islands was done during our vicious, murderous military dictatorship in the 70s/early 80s. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/12/argentina-falkl... http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/feb/05/falklands-under-ou...

That's absurd. "Sabre-rattling" means attempting to intimidate by displays of military power (or implied military power). See: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/sabre-rattling?s=t&pa...

Both links you cited specifically rule out military intervention. Allow me to quote from your first link:

Quotes from your first link:

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"Argentina will seek legal punishment, including prison sentences, for anyone who drills for oil in the Falklands and the surrounding waters it claims as its territories, the country's newly created Malvinas secretary has told the Guardian. [...] In his first interview with the international media since taking the post on Monday, Daniel Filmus also warned that companies involved in exploration of the disputed areas will be disqualified from potentially more lucrative work in Vaca Muerta (the giant shale oil deposit in Argentina's Patagonia region) and offshore areas.

"We will go to the international courts. It must be known that Argentina will defend its claim," Filmus told the Guardian at his office in the ministry of foreign affairs. "Whoever doesn't obtain authorisation will not only face administrative consequences but will also face prison sentences.""

----

You may or may not like Argentina's policies and position on the matter of the Malvinas, but all this is:

a- Not military posturing. b- Within legal bounds. See mentions of legal action, prison sentences, international courts. I don't see any threats of military aggression, do you?

So we can rule out sabre-rattling from your first link. Let's go on with your second link.

First sentence after the heading of second link:

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"Argentinian foreign minister rules out military solution but says 'not one single country' supports UK right to govern islands"

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So a military solution is ruled out then? I rest my case.

Re: S.&P. Says Argentina Has Defaulted

#185
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment is naive. Our "sabre-rattling" over the Malvinas Islands was done during our vicious, murderous military dictatorship in the 70s/early 80s. We now have a democracy. Any dispute about the islands is done via diplomatic means (regardless of whether you believe the claim has merit, diplomacy is the only legitimate way to resolve it). No sabre-rattling is possible. Don't confuse democratic Argentina with pas…

> Our "sabre-rattling" over the Malvinas Islands was done during our vicious, murderous military dictatorship in the 70s/early 80s. No, it has continued as recently as this year (actually, its been on a notable upswing in the last couple of years, and a similar upswing happened, IIRC, in the early-to-mid-1990s.) Its true that it reached a fever pitch and an actual brief war with the UK in the time you describe, but t…

By definition sabre-rattling means aggressive displays of power.

Argentina in democracy has continued to assert their sovereign rights over the Malvinas Islands via diplomatic means. You are fully entitled to believe the claim is invalid or wrong, but this that not make it sabre-rattling. Sabre-rattling is making veiled threats of invasion, suspicious missile tests, flybys by military aircraft, and in general any display of military power.

If by sabre-rattling you merely mean "Argentina continues to complain about the issue using strong language and tries to bring it to international courts", then that's a pretty misleading wording.

Re: S.&P. Says Argentina Has Defaulted

#186
post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Our "sabre-rattling" over the Malvinas Islands was done during our vicious, murderous military dictatorship in the 70s/early 80s. No, it has continued as recently as this year (actually, its been on a notable upswing in the last couple of years, and a similar upswing happened, IIRC, in the early-to-mid-1990s.) Its true that it reached a fever pitch and an actual brief war with the UK in the time you describe, but t…

By definition sabre-rattling means aggressive displays of power. Argentina in democracy has continued to assert their sovereign rights over the Malvinas Islands via diplomatic means. You are fully entitled to believe the claim is invalid or wrong, but this that not make it sabre-rattling . Sabre-rattling is making veiled threats of invasion, suspicious missile tests, flybys by military aircraft, and in general any di…

> By definition sabre-rattling means aggressive displays of power.

Which Argentina, particularly by way of its Navy, has been engaging throughout the 2010s over the Falkland Islands.

> Argentina in democracy has continued to assert their sovereign rights over the Malvinas Islands via diplomatic means.

Among other things, enforcing a de facto blockade using naval forces to prevent innocent passage of civilian vessels is -- as well as arguably a violation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea -- clear saber rattling, not "diplomatic means".

> You are fully entitled to believe the claim is invalid or wrong, but this that not make it sabre-rattling.

You are fully entitled to believe that the claim is valid or right, but that doesn't change the fact that the Kirchener government has been, for years, engaging in, alongside diplomatic efforts, saber rattling in regards to the Falkland Islands.

Re: S.&P. Says Argentina Has Defaulted

#187
post #127

Why does Argentina struggle so with these sorts of problems? It seems like a country with enormous potential. Lots of resources, limited security threat, amazing climate.

Disclaimer: I'm from Argentina. One batch of politicians and lobbyists sells the country for short-term gain. Later politicians inherit the problem, and maybe compound it with their own batch of mistakes. The "problem" in this particular case is a tiny group of foreign speculative capital creditors holding the whole country hostage. It has little to do with the country's potential. Note these so-called "vulture funds…

That they are attempting this now might also be a sign that they expect Argentina's economy to take a nose dive.

Re: S.&P. Says Argentina Has Defaulted

#188
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you name one such debt-free currency? Preferably one that works in a modern economy? Don't forget: A lot of our risk-management and wealth today depends on derivatives and a well running financial market. To say that a completely different but unproven system works better is a very tough point to defend.

Well let me preface with this: I'm not an economist and of course harbor my own bias(just like everybody else), but I'm educated enough to recognize when systems and people are being gamed. Why can't our government(or any government for that matter) print their own money and issue it to its people, which is then freed from the private central bank's interest? Instead, we allow the banking industry to self-regulate an…

Obviously you are not an economist or historian (I'm neither). "Why can't our government print their own money?" pretty much gives away that you haven't put in any effort to learn how banking, money or a central bank works.

All the examples you mention don't hold up. Not even in their own time, much less in a modern time where we need private finance.

"Cryptocurrency" is a new kind of knee-jerk reaction to "everything perceived to be wrong with money". There's a reason why conspiracy nuts flock to cryptocurrencies in droves. Turns out that ordinary people get screwed over with bitcoins far more easily than with the "evil" fiat currencies. Also there is no reason why you can't have a sort of reserve-banking, or even monetary expansion in a bitcoin-based economy. They just don't do it yet, because Bitcoins at the present moment have negligible impact on the real economy (which might change).

Re: S.&P. Says Argentina Has Defaulted

#189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anytime a dollar is printed, the person who receives the physical dollar bill is a creditor to the US government. The government is in debt to the holder of the bill, just as they would be in debt to a purchaser of a government bond. This is why counterfeit money is so bad - it's literally forging a debt of the government that never existed (essentially forging the government's name on a contract that says "I promise…

Thanks to both of you for your explanations. I think I'm beginning to understand it, though it I find it far more comprehensible when considered in the context of a gold-backed dollar than fiat.

Right, it makes more sense in the world of a 'backed dollar'.

As it is, it is a debt to repay $1 for each $1 bill. You might well ask, $1 of what? Since the government doesn't produce anything, it is a strange kind of debt.

$1 of tax-forgiveness is one answer. $1 of whatever our citizens produce is another answer. This 2nd answer is the reason why the demise of the dollar as the world currency (aka wealth reserve function) could lead to hyperinflation in the USA as all those foreign-held dollars come flooding back, looking for something domestic to buy.

As long as the dollar is legal tender within the USA, foreign "creditors" (in the sense used in the above comments) can always get something back (however debased in value).

If like Brazil and Argentina, the USA defaults and creates a new currency (it'll never happen, right?) then good luck to all the drug-dealers of the world trying to cash in their old greenbacks.

Re: S.&P. Says Argentina Has Defaulted

#190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is how debt collectors work. The hedge fund guys are just debt sharks. They're contributing nothing of value to anyone - possibly not even to themselves, because it's not so unlikely there will be international fallout that massively damages their other holdings.

They're contributing nothing of value to anyone... Except if they didn't exist, then bonds like those sold by the Argentine government would require higher interest rates, because the original buyer would have to assume the entire risk of default, rather than having the option to transfer part of that risk in the future. That'd be bad for national governments trying to raise funds at low cost.

Minor flaw in your point - it's even harder for governments to budget rationally when some shark buys up all their old debt on the cheap and tries to bankrupt them, because money.
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