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Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

npr.org

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Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

#11

Post by KhalilK »

privong wrote: post #8
KhalilK wrote: post #5

So should Europe and the U.S. begin worrying about the virus? As a North African inhabitant (Tunisia), I can't help but consider this egocentric. Are other African countries somehow doomed?

Well, NPR is an American organization, so it's not really surprising that they're writing it with an eye towards their primary demographic (Americans, and to a lesser extent, Europeans) . > Are other African countries somehow doomed? It would certainly be interesting to look at the likelihood of propagation in Africa, and hopefully someone does that. But I'd be surprised to see that from a news organization with a pr…

That last question was merely sarcastic and based on my understanding of the article; discussing potential spread to the US/Europe suggests that the virus has already spread in Africa, at least that's how I saw it.

Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

#12

Post by privong »

KhalilK wrote: post #11
privong wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, NPR is an American organization, so it's not really surprising that they're writing it with an eye towards their primary demographic (Americans, and to a lesser extent, Europeans) . > Are other African countries somehow doomed? It would certainly be interesting to look at the likelihood of propagation in Africa, and hopefully someone does that. But I'd be surprised to see that from a news organization with a pr…

That last question was merely sarcastic and based on my understanding of the article; discussing potential spread to the US/Europe suggests that the virus has already spread in Africa, at least that's how I saw it.

I figured you were being sarcastic. But I do think it would actually be interesting for someone to look into propagation within Africa.

Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

#13

Post by worldvoyageur »

giarc wrote: post #3

The largest driver of this outbreak (and many ebola outbreaks) is the fear of healthcare and the way many cultures treat the deceased. These two issues are what would make transmission to NA or Europe very unlikely. Many people in African nations will stay away from hospitals because they believe they will get Ebola from the hospital. Therefore often people that are sick die of Ebola in the community and therefore sp…

Fear of healthcare might actually not be a bad way to reduce the risk of getting ebola as the easiest way to get it is as a result of poor hospital procedure. Here is a snippet from a moving article about a young microbiologist who investigated the first Ebola outbreak.

" It quickly became clear that something was wrong at the hospital. Epidemiological detective work by our team confirmed the suspicions: people were being infected at the hospital through injections made using contaminated needles and syringes (only five syringes and needles were issued to the nurses each morning), and hospital staff and attendees at funerals were falling victim through exposure to body fluids infected with the virus. In addition there seemed to be transmission from mothers to babies. "

The full article is a moving and rewarding read:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/4c1711c2-d004-11e3-a2b7-00144...

As a tragic aside, it is the same poor hospital procedure that gave so many Africans AIDS back in the day. Sexual transmission is now the main vector, but it wasn't always the case.

Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

#14

Post by gus_massa »

KhalilK wrote: post #5

So should Europe and the U.S. begin worrying about the virus? As a North African inhabitant (Tunisia), I can't help but consider this egocentric. Are other African countries somehow doomed?

It will very difficult for the virus to cross the Sahara. It needs to infect a traveler at the right time in the right direction. Also, I guess that there are more from trips from Conakry to Paris than to Tunis, so probably Tunis is safer than Paris. But IANAMD and YMMV.

Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

#15

Post by sliverstorm »

giarc wrote: post #3

The largest driver of this outbreak (and many ebola outbreaks) is the fear of healthcare and the way many cultures treat the deceased. These two issues are what would make transmission to NA or Europe very unlikely. Many people in African nations will stay away from hospitals because they believe they will get Ebola from the hospital. Therefore often people that are sick die of Ebola in the community and therefore sp…

Secondly, when people die in many of these cultures, there is much more physical connection with the body, potentially spreading the disease more.

You would think this would have been selected against ages ago.

Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

#16

Post by sliverstorm »

KhalilK wrote: post #5

So should Europe and the U.S. begin worrying about the virus? As a North African inhabitant (Tunisia), I can't help but consider this egocentric. Are other African countries somehow doomed?

Outbreaks are particularly scary to areas of high population density. It's one of the biggest risks to a city like New York. A highly infectious disease could one day go through that city like a hot knife through butter.

That's something Africa mostly doesn't have to worry about, I would think. This could just be my ignorance showing, but I don't think there are any places in Africa with the density of Manhattan island?

Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

#17

Post by pyre »

rjsw wrote: post #4
joe_the_user wrote: post #2

I usually hate mentioning it, but this seems a perfect example of Betteridge's law. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines

Maybe. One danger that isn't mentioned in the article is that Ebola is suspected of being carried by animals, fruit bats in particular. Lots of bushmeat gets smuggled into Europe.

> Lots of bushmeat gets smuggled into Europe.

As a delicacy (i.e. people looking for Chimpanzee meat)? Or to serve African immigrant populations (looking to bring home to a foreign land)?

Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

#18

Post by DanBC »

pyre wrote: post #17
rjsw wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe. One danger that isn't mentioned in the article is that Ebola is suspected of being carried by animals, fruit bats in particular. Lots of bushmeat gets smuggled into Europe.

> Lots of bushmeat gets smuggled into Europe. As a delicacy (i.e. people looking for Chimpanzee meat)? Or to serve African immigrant populations (looking to bring home to a foreign land)?

It used to be for personal consumption but now there is a "luxury market" and illegal meat is being traded.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/jun/18/illegal-b...

Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

#19

Post by KhalilK »

sliverstorm wrote: post #16
KhalilK wrote: post #5

So should Europe and the U.S. begin worrying about the virus? As a North African inhabitant (Tunisia), I can't help but consider this egocentric. Are other African countries somehow doomed?

Outbreaks are particularly scary to areas of high population density. It's one of the biggest risks to a city like New York. A highly infectious disease could one day go through that city like a hot knife through butter. That's something Africa mostly doesn't have to worry about, I would think. This could just be my ignorance showing, but I don't think there are any places in Africa with the density of Manhattan isla…

Cairo?

Manhattan's population density is 25,846/km²[1].

Cairo's population density is 46,349/km²[2].

[1] - https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=Manhattan's+population+...

[2] - https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=Cairo's+population+dens...

Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

#20

Post by rwissmann »

worldvoyageur wrote: post #13
giarc wrote: post #3

The largest driver of this outbreak (and many ebola outbreaks) is the fear of healthcare and the way many cultures treat the deceased. These two issues are what would make transmission to NA or Europe very unlikely. Many people in African nations will stay away from hospitals because they believe they will get Ebola from the hospital. Therefore often people that are sick die of Ebola in the community and therefore sp…

Fear of healthcare might actually not be a bad way to reduce the risk of getting ebola as the easiest way to get it is as a result of poor hospital procedure. Here is a snippet from a moving article about a young microbiologist who investigated the first Ebola outbreak. " It quickly became clear that something was wrong at the hospital. Epidemiological detective work by our team confirmed the suspicions: people were…

The problem regards people who already have Ebola. Of course, if you have just a less severe condition, staying a way form a hospital might during an epidemic might be a reasonable move.

Treating those with Ebola at home is a recipe for catastrophe. Contrary to AIDS, Ebola is highly contagious and often leads to the infection of the whole family and visitors.

So no, fear of healthcare is just about the worst possible mindset for those infected with Ebola and their families.

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