Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?
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Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?
#2I usually hate mentioning it, but this seems a perfect example of Betteridge's law.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines
Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?
#3The largest driver of this outbreak (and many ebola outbreaks) is the fear of healthcare and the way many cultures treat the deceased. These two issues are what would make transmission to NA or Europe very unlikely.
Many people in African nations will stay away from hospitals because they believe they will get Ebola from the hospital. Therefore often people that are sick die of Ebola in the community and therefore spread the disease (symptoms of ebola are very similar to malaria in the first stages, and therefore does not always draw attention to people familiar with malaria)
Secondly, when people die in many of these cultures, there is much more physical connection with the body, potentially spreading the disease more.
In NA and Europe, people are much more likely to seek care and we also don't have as much contact with deceased person (and also have guidelines for handling of infectious bodies).
Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?
#4I usually hate mentioning it, but this seems a perfect example of Betteridge's law. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines
Maybe.
One danger that isn't mentioned in the article is that Ebola is suspected of being carried by animals, fruit bats in particular.
Lots of bushmeat gets smuggled into Europe.
Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?
#5So should Europe and the U.S. begin worrying about the virus?
As a North African inhabitant (Tunisia), I can't help but consider this egocentric. Are other African countries somehow doomed?
Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?
#6Yes.
But there are a few caveats. First, does ebola have environmental factors? What are the vectors for transmission?
Are parts of the rest of the world immune/partially immune already?
THe problem is that remote africa is very hard to look after, however fortunately for the surrounding areas movement of people is slow and fairly easy to trace.
If it were to hit a town in say nigeria, then its pretty much game over. Country wide quarantines. Stopping of shipping and all movements across borders.
Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?
#7So should Europe and the U.S. begin worrying about the virus? As a North African inhabitant (Tunisia), I can't help but consider this egocentric. Are other African countries somehow doomed?
It seems rather egocentric to expect US national radio to serve Africa?
Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?
#8So should Europe and the U.S. begin worrying about the virus? As a North African inhabitant (Tunisia), I can't help but consider this egocentric. Are other African countries somehow doomed?
Well, NPR is an American organization, so it's not really surprising that they're writing it with an eye towards their primary demographic (Americans, and to a lesser extent, Europeans) .
> Are other African countries somehow doomed?
It would certainly be interesting to look at the likelihood of propagation in Africa, and hopefully someone does that. But I'd be surprised to see that from a news organization with a primarily American audience. Also, I didn't see anything in the article implying anything about further spread in Africa.
Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?
#9Re: Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?
#10Probably not. You'd need a vector. I saw a documentary about an outbreak in the 90s and it was a monkey that a man let loose in the forest.