Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Part of the reason is fear. "If I have a very small egg-car and everyone else has a heavy car, I'll be the one that is killed." That isn't fear, it's entirely rational behavior. This is one of those many cases where a group of people behaving individually in their self-interest results in a situation that's worse for all participants. It would be better for everyone if we moved in aggregate to smaller, lighter cars…
It's not a zero sum game. All else being equal, larger cars for everyone results in more safety for everyone. Imagine two extremes. 1) You smack into another person at 70MPH while you're both in a cardboard box. Don't ask me how you got a cardboard box up to that speed, but you probably do not survive. 2) You manage to get a Maersk E class up to 70MPH and crash it into another Maersk E class. Assuming you're not at t…
The latest chapter for the self-driving car: mastering city street driving
441–450 of 455 posts
Re: The latest chapter for the self-driving car: mastering city street driving
#442Earlier quoted context omitted.
Really? Ever drive on a public road? What percentage of drivers break the speed limit laws? 95%? 7 nines in California? Cops don't even pull you over until you're driving at least 10-15 over. So obviously speeding is a totally fine law to break, but when I roll through a residential stop sign at 5 mph (that has obviously been installed only to enforce right-of-way) what I'm doing is inexcusable? Until drivers fall al…
The problem is not with breaking the law. Drivers and cyclists do this more-or-less equally I'd imagine. The problem is in breaking expectations. If I see 10 cars driving 80mph in a 55mph zone, then it is reasonable for me to expect an 11th, and I'm certainly not shocked when I do see that. At stop signs and red lights when I'm riding my bike I've seen far too many fellow cyclists seem to take pleasure in their abili…
When a driver's expectation is that he shouldn't have to pay attention to what is going on around him, I think it's the expectation that is the problem, not the violation of that expectation. When I return to Canada, I'm going to be an even worse cyclist than I am now. I've learned a lot.
Of course, I also read an article the other day about a shopping mall that painted fast and slow lanes on the floor for pedestrians. Traffic controls for pedestrians. Never underestimate the faith Americans place in the incompetence of their fellow citizens.
Re: The latest chapter for the self-driving car: mastering city street driving
#443Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'll back that as soon as a system to force bicyclists to abide by traffic laws is required.
As a sometime cyclist, I agree that cyclists should abide by traffic laws. I assume this was downvoted for tone. The premise is undeniable. Bicycles should obey the laws. Greater rule adherence means a more predictable, and thus safer, street.
Re: The latest chapter for the self-driving car: mastering city street driving
#444Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm thinking there could be an agreement you sign when the car is purchased that states that the self-driving abilities are not to be fully relied on and the driver must be fully aware and ready to take over at all times. Thus if the car ever crashed by fault of Google they can say the driver should have been paying attention. This would have a lot of downsides. For instance, DWI's would still be a thing.
Getting humans to participate only in emergencies is almost the worst of all approaches. With reduced practice the human is deskilled and they are less likely to be alert and aware of the situation if they have to take over suddenly. Signing an agreement will not make people alert and ready.
Re: The latest chapter for the self-driving car: mastering city street driving
#445Earlier quoted context omitted.
Apparently a Microwave typically uses about 1.5W on standby, so that's: 24 * 3600 * 1.5 = 129600 Joules per day So, if it draws about a kW in use, that means that if you use it for less than 130 seconds per day, or just under 2 minutes, you'll actually use more power on standby than on cooking / heating. I think I use my microwave more than 2 mins each day, but there are days I don't use it at all, so I'm not sure ho…
1.5W is a crazy amount of standby power. Not that I don't believe older models may use that much, but there are now regulations and standards for that kind of thing which push that to a much lower power.
Re: The latest chapter for the self-driving car: mastering city street driving
#446Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, snow scatters the emitted light and scarcely any is returned at all. A wall covered in ice looks like an air gap. (I know this because my very expensive 800kg autonomous vehicle almost drove into a lake under my software control due to this effect...)
Aaaah, a domain-knowledge expert, thaaaank god! Actual information on this topic is sorely lacking.... ....While we have you on the line, would you please contribute some more information on LIDAR w/r/t autonomous vehicles? For example, how well does LIDAR work with rain? fog? How does LIDAR interact with other nearby LIDARs? How much power does a typical system emit? How sensitive is it to jamming? How many frames p…
Fog is so much denser that you get heaps of reflected returns, and naive algorithms would treat this as there being lots of solid stuff in the environment. Your best bet is to combine sensors that don't share the same EM bands; e.g. lidar + camera, or + radar, sonar, etc. It's not just redundancy, but the ability to perceive across different frequencies so that things that scatter or absorb in one band don't do so in another, allowing you to distinguish.
I don't think one LIDAR would interact with another to any great extent. Even if off-the-shelf models did, there'd ultimately be some way to uniquely identify or polarise the beams such that this wasn't a problem. I suspect its reasonably easy to engineer a solution around this.
Power emission I'm not entirely sure about, but almost all are at least class 2 laser devices. You shouldn't point an SLR camera at Google's vehicles for example, as you can destroy the CCD. The Velodyne they use draws 4-6amps at 12V, but a lot of that power goes to heating the emitter, motors, etc, and isn't all emitted by any means.
Frames-per-second isn't really the right measure for Velodynes, but their max rotation is 3-4 revs per second IIRC. It's about a million points per second. (For something like the Kinect For Windows V2, which is a flash lidar, it should run at 30fps, but with lower depth resolution.)
I can't think how you could 'jam' a lidar, but you can certainly confuse the crap out of it easily enough. Scatter some corner reflectors on the roads for example, dust grenades, fog cannons, etc.
Computing power to reconstruct is significant (many DARPA Grand Challenge teams had problems containing their power budget for CPUs/GPUs) but manageable. It depends on the algorithms used, and in many cases the amount of "history" you infer over. Google's approach is to log everything, post-process into static world maps, then upload those maps back to the vehicles. When they're actually driving for real, those maps effectively let them take the delta between what they currently see and what the static map says there should be, and they only really have to handle the differences (i.e. people, cars, bikes, etc). This is still hard, but it's much easier than e.g. the Mars Rover problem (more my area of experience)
Re: The latest chapter for the self-driving car: mastering city street driving
#447Earlier quoted context omitted.
Very easily. Not to mention that storage will be simpler as cars will be able to park closely together without requiring doors to open before moving to where you can enter them, or in elevated storage. At some point in the future, most people will be unlikely to own a car (just use one on demand) so their driveway will go mostly unused and their garage will be used for something else also.
The issue comes up somewhere like a townhouse complex. Maps does not contain detailed data on assigned parking spaces and the like for these areas. This is not an issue if everyone is using self-driving cars. But when only some people are, I don't see how you'd avoid the need for cars to take over in these instances. Same with street driving really, you already have self-parking cars, but the car would need to be abl…
Most apartment owners would probably elect to use their parking space for a storage capsule and then subscribe to a robo-car service. The car would be waiting when they got downstairs and leave to go elsewhere when it returned them home.
Eventually, street parking will disappear. If I still want to be driven to work, the car will drop me at the front door and then head elsewhere. In the evening, a different car will likely arrive for pick-up.
Any cars not on a job or driving to a job would head to a depot for charging, service or storage.
Re: The latest chapter for the self-driving car: mastering city street driving
#448Earlier quoted context omitted.
Surge pricing equivalents will motivate people to adjust/stagger their working hours. I already arrive early and leave late to avoid peak hour. Pod-based transport would also make public transport easier and closer to a door-to-door experience.
Or maybe surge pricing equivalents will motivate people to buy their own cars. If the advantage of a car-sharing scheme is cost savings, and then you start charging more, what's the advantage again? In any case, I don't think that that's a feasible option for the majority of jobs.
Right now, my wife and I have two cars. One of them is only used 2-3 days of the week. The other is only used for a small portion of each day.
If taxis weren't needing to cover wage costs, I'd already be better off switching from the second car to using a taxi to get to and from work. Registration, insurance and servicing for the second car is $2-3k/year.
Re: The latest chapter for the self-driving car: mastering city street driving
#449Earlier quoted context omitted.
No. Current driver-based insurance policies might be based on the ability to hold the driver personally responsible if they are negligent. Insuring a vehicle is just figuring out what the likely payout ratio across a cohort of those vehicles is going to be, then working backwards from there to come up with a premium that will cover the claim amounts, administrative costs and provide a pool of funds to invest. Lots of…
Also, in terms of regulatory capture, it's almost certain that the legal requirement to hold insurance for your car will continue. But the combination of the fact that payouts will probably move towards class action against software bugs (where class action suits usually have a lower per-person payout, and will be paid out by massive policies held by the car companies) and the fact that in general fewer of those peop…
Yes. The logic goes like this. 'Currently I'm an insured driver'. I will have a car with no driver. It therefore cannot be insured.
Where I live cars are already insured for third-party personal damages, regardless of who is driving them. It's a fixed-cost premium attached and paid at vehicle registration time. Thus, if you are injured in a motor vehicle accident, regardless of who is at fault, you (or your heirs) will be paid compensation in a regulated environment. This is a functioning market which doesn't adjust for driver age or experience, but instead collectively insures all vehicles on the road, and pays out when a claim is made. Periodically, when more than one insurer is involved, they will negotiate an 'at fault' percentage in order to work out which ratio at which the claims are attributed to each insurer. This may involve discussion of the drivers actions (to determine fault), but the payout is always made - because the vehicle itself is the thing that is insured.
In this system, the only way the driver can become liable for the claim is if they specifically and deliberately engaged in a criminal act, such as driving an unregistered vehicle, or driving under influence. Mere speeding or red-light running doesn't void the insurance (as these are traffic infringements rather than criminal acts). And in these cases, the insurance company still pays out the compensation, but may proceed to recover the compensation from the driver that broke the law.
This type of system would easily be translated to driverless vehicles. The owner of the vehicle would pay a registration fee, and a portion of that fee would be passed onto the owners choice of insurer (or a valid certificate of insurance would need to be presented for registration, which is the same thing). As long as the insurance was paid, then third-party personal and property damage would be paid out to any accident claimants. If the insurance company then decided someone was directly liable for causing the claim (such as tampering with vehicle systems or negligent coding) then they could recover the claim money.
Such a system would be a vast improvement on the current situation, whereby it's the driver that is insured, and because of the various risk factors, insurance premiums are all over the place. As a result, the riskiest drivers also tend to be the ones lacking insurance, which is the worst case for someone who needs to make a claim.
But then insurance is one of the most misunderstood products around, so I guess it's not surprising that ignorance of how it works abounds.
Re: The latest chapter for the self-driving car: mastering city street driving
#450Question for self-driving car aficionados. When I'm driving and encounter a strange or dangerous situation these days I often try to think if a robocar will be able to handle it properly. One situation came up the other day that made me nervous. I was driving on a relatively empty highway at high speed (70mph) and there was a piece of debris in one of the lanes. I spotted the debris far ahead and safely changed lanes…