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Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

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Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#91

Post by Avshalom »

mikeash wrote: post #57
001sky wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

http://media.caranddriver.com/images/media/51/under-the-tesl... In addition to the motor, the schematic diagrams above seems to many moving parts that typically need work by 120,000 miles. Eg: steering (likely) differentials (likely) and in various parts of the suspension (internal). Whilst the specifics may be debatable, most of these items are wear items and require fluid changes and/or replacement internals. Thing…

That's nice, but I'm specifically wondering about the motor "oil changes" and the cost of the motor itself, and this doesn't address that at all.

Why are you specifically wondering about th motor oil? Do you think that getting some to admit teslas don't need oil changes will some how prove that the power windows won't fail; rocks will never crack the windshield; one headlight won't mysteriously stop working after 6 months; tires won't lose tread etc.

Because that's the actual maintainance cost of a car. Modulo nobody's engines need replacing in 10 years. Oil changes are 30 bucks once a year at a Walmart/jiffy lube.

The post that kicked this particular thread off even said as much but everyone seems more interested in arguing about the possible cost of the worst case than considering the actual costs of the probable cases: all the little shit.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#92

Post by thaumasiotes »

jesusmichael wrote: post #51
jesusmichael wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The statement that electric motors have fewer moving parts so they last substantially longer is a fallacy that electric car proponents have been spreading for years. There are still many, moving parts which require servicing and can fail at a rate of similarly serviced gas engines. In fact servicing (rewinding) is quite a labor intensive and expensive operation, given the price of copper or other conductive material…

My source is an industrial electric motor supplier. Google "400hp electric motor" I'm not saying tesla's require oil changes as a gas engine does... oil will last quite a long time when not contaminated by hydrocarbons. But even sealed bearings need to be repacked after so much wear. To parts can't move against on another without generating heat, which will degrade a lubricant and allow wear.

disclaimer: I have no idea what I'm talking about.

I'd kind of like to see an elaboration of this, though:

> oil will last quite a long time when not contaminated by hydrocarbons

as I was under the impression that oil consists 100% of hydrocarbons.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#94

Post by robmcm »

dm2 wrote: post #34
zyang wrote: post #4

Would you buy an eight year used Tesla for 30k? I'm a fan of Tesla and hope to be an owner some day, but I think the author is being overly optimistic here.

Part of the problem is that many people can't own an electric vehicle because neither their apartment/condo or work has a place to charge it. You basically have to be a home owner in order to own an electric vehicle. That's not an easy situation to solve either.

I live in London and this is an issue that a lot of potential EV owners.

Having seen how the councils have added "club car" spaces for car rental schemes I could see them adding charge parking spaces, potentially with free electricity.

Hopefully this will be a non issue in a few years.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#95

Post by roel_v »

Well the core insight is in there, but it's not highlighted enough:

"The model is very sensitive to the rate of depreciation."

Every TCO model for cars is very sensitive to rate of depreciation, and this rate is very hard to predict. You can rely on historical data only so much - how much in demand will petrol cars be 8 years from now? Diesel? What kind of tax incentives will we get over the next few years? And a single percent difference in depreciation rate can put one car ahead of another.

Within the last 10% or so, it's a crap shoot. And 10% basically puts all cars in the same class within a single bucket. So yeah.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#96

Post by lafar6502 »

dave1619 wrote: post #28
zyang wrote: post #4

Would you buy an eight year used Tesla for 30k? I'm a fan of Tesla and hope to be an owner some day, but I think the author is being overly optimistic here.

Tesla has promised the ability to swap out battery packs in the future. So, after 8 years the Model S should hold very good resale value because at that time you could probably swap in a 120+kwh battery (that goes 400+ miles). 30k residual value after 8 years on a well-options S 85kwh sounds about right IMO.

10 year old Tesla will be considered an ancient, inefficient design nobody will want to buy. Cool factor will be long gone. There will be much better cars and prices will be significantly lower than Tesla's today.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#97

Post by tomschlick »

pkaye wrote: post #77

If electric cars are already a good deal do we still need to have tax incentives?

I'd say so. It provides long term benefit to the society as a whole if larger numbers of these cars are purchased (less emissions, lower demand for gas, better safety, raises the bar for other manufacturers, etc)

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#98

Post by D_Alex »

jesusmichael wrote: post #69
letstryagain wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The entire car is only about twice that, and we know the battery is very expensive. There's no way the electric motor costs $24k.

Here's one on Ebay for $10k.. Ebay! http://www.ebay.com/bhp/300-hp-electric-motor General Purpose 350HP motor. $25K http://www.globalindustrial.com/p/motors/ac-motors-2-phase/3... In general these motors have tight tolerances and aren't the motors in your electric shaver The entire car cost $70K...

Referring to your 350 hp example:

1. That motor is a low speed motor, as such it is massive. It weighs 3044 pounds. The Tesla motor runs at nearly 10 times the speed, and ought to be roughly a factor of 10 lighter. 2. See how the price drops by almost 10% when you buy more than 5 of these motors? Now imagine you are buying 20,000+... 3. You can bet the manufacturer of the motor (Baldor) did not get $25k for it. I imagine the markup for the reseller is of the order of 30-50%, on top of other costs such as transport. These do not apply to Tesla.

I am pretty sure even $6000/unit is an over-estimate.

I have some information from an occasionally reliable source that the entire car costs around $20,000 to make. This is the "incremental cost", after tooling, R&D etc has been paid for. This is apparently about the same as a top level mass produced luxury Benz - for the Benz, the much higher inherent production cost is offset by the scale and efficiency of their production line.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#99

Post by D_Alex »

vacri wrote: post #87
erikstarck wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it's good enough for Norway it should work in Canada too, right? Well, one in every ten cars sold (10.8%) in Norway in March was a Tesla... http://cleantechnica.com/2014/04/04/7-tesla-norway-facts-wil...

Canada is a "Big Country" nation, and Norway isn't. Short or shortening range will have less of an effect on purchaser decisions.

1. Norway, like Canada, is sparsely populated country.

2. I saw a Norwegian registered Model S in Zurich last week.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#100

Post by sergiosgc »

jesusmichael wrote: post #33
natural219 wrote: post #19

I have also ran similar calculations in my head. I think what I'd want to be convinced is a thorough analysis from a mechanical/industrial engineer on how much you can expect to save from a fully electric car on maintenance. The claim I've heard from Tesla is that, since there are much fewer moving parts within an electric motor, the car will last substantially longer. While this makes intuitive sense, I would love t…

The statement that electric motors have fewer moving parts so they last substantially longer is a fallacy that electric car proponents have been spreading for years. There are still many, moving parts which require servicing and can fail at a rate of similarly serviced gas engines. In fact servicing (rewinding) is quite a labor intensive and expensive operation, given the price of copper or other conductive material…

Here's a perfectly written comment, downvoted. I don't agree with the conclusion, I question several of the premises, but I can't understand downvoting based on agreement. The comment is good, well written, and adds to the discussion. It should be upvoted.

Are there voting guidelines for HN? Am I in the wrong here?

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